Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-06
Source: Kim Merrill Lynch Investment
1, Market Guide:
Shanghai stock market this week, a dramatic Xianyihouyang tape out of the trend is more sluggish in the first half weeks, but Friday a big Yangxian few days swept away the haze. Fri benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed at 1574 points, finished the week up 26 points, pulled out a belt under the shadow of long-Yang Xian. Turnover was only 89.8 billion, compared with nearly half of last week's decline.
Keep pouring in this week can be described as bad. First, the new round of tightening of monetary policy is ready for enactment. The State Council executive meeting held recently pointed out that "the current economic operation of the main problems is still excessive growth of fixed asset investment, excessive money and credit, especially in structural contradiction." Central bank also announced the latest in a "window guidance "The meeting content, at the central bank asked banks should attach great importance to rapid loan growth is likely to generate risks, reasonable control of credit delivery and so on. Then the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said recently that the current central bank's monetary policy is mainly or "fine tuning" for the present monetary and credit situation, the central bank would "open money market operations to increase the intensity." Second, the expansion is still accelerating, international airlines have made it clear to issue A shares, following the Bank of China, the large-scale state-owned enterprises are accelerating the pace of returnees. In addition, the surrounding market is precarious, in the interest rate increase expected to increase, the background of tightening global liquidity, global stock markets, including volatility in commodity futures are out of the market, especially the gold drop is even more remarkable, which for a growing international A-shares for a time of the formation of a considerable psychological impact.
So to say look at what the bad effects? First of all, the further implementation of the central bank tightening of monetary policy will certainly have a negative impact because tightening of liquidity in the stock market will have a direct impact on the funds side, but this influence need not be overestimated. Because the one central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has said the central bank's policy would be "fine tuning" instead of "strong medicine" that is, the intensity of regulation and control should be moderate, while the most important is the excess liquidity the most fundamental reason for this trade surplus is a result of Waihuizhankuan continued to increase, as long as the trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves continued to stubbornly high, this situation of ample liquidity would not have changed the nature of nature and therefore outside the stock market funds will not be the fundamental issue. From the expansion point of view, from the new share issue-intensive and resulted in the success rate rose to see, indeed, within the short-term capital formation of a certain surface pressure, but the issue of new shares, especially the return of super-aircraft carriers to upgrade the A shares of the gold content and future of a real bull market formation are indispensable, but from the current issue of the Bank of China, the market has begun to fully absorb the fear and then to now look to the broader market listing would bring about a turning point if in fact such a possibility a large , as listed Bank of China will become the next first heavyweight, while the industry and because of their special status, will become the object of looting bodies, as we have analyzed the broader market, this wave of adjustment, although there are a variety of reasons, But the imaginary potential to meet the Bank of China is also one of the reasons listed. As the broader market recently has been a more adequate adjustment, after the listing of Bank of China will become the second China Yangtze Power, led the market's reversal worth the wait. Expansion on the broader market and therefore can only be a short-term psychological effects, long-term view is positive. As for the stock markets in the formation of only short-term impact on the A shares, but not on the A shares of any substantive impact, as the yuan has not yet freely convertible, the domestic market is relatively independent, in particular the international market soared the past two years the case of domestic A shares are down is going through tragic moment, only rehabilitation rise and therefore no need to look around the market's tune, but completely out of their own bull market with Chinese characteristics.
In fact, this week, stocks in Shanghai stock market experienced a bad but after being hit out of the Xianyihouyang, bottom recovery market, in particular, recent and rare Changyang closed Friday, indicating the market has been bad digestion. This does not fall down, it should call. From the disk to see the broader market bottomed out signs are very clear indicators of Sinopec shares after being repeatedly suppressed large anti-pieces finally Friday, and stability of the market focus, while the non-ferrous metal plates around the market rebound was also formed under the stimulus rebound, In addition, real estate, finance, aerospace industry, breweries and food is very hot early, but recently they are the callback a significant reduction in stocks rebound trend from the flow of funds perspective, electronic information and other tech stocks, as well as small plates, including foreign trade , tourism and other pre-plate are not fully speculation main Masukura signs. After each round of adjustment, the new mainstream of the transfer of hot spots will appear, because fate has turned, the new main when the main will not give the old People's Liberation Army. The new windfall profits in the early varieties will not generate the full performance of individual stocks, tech stocks and merger and reorganization of the cap, lower-class is most likely breeding ground for future Quotes of the dark horse.
This week, stocks in Shanghai Stock Market under the influence of a number of negative factors Xianyihouyang, the trend is very tenacious. The daily chart to form a nice little Yuanhu Di shape, while shares of Sinopec and other indicators are also significant counter-offensive, showing periodic adjustment has ended, the market outlook appears to accelerate broad market is expected to counterattack Quotes.
2, the operation recommended that:
1, position: 60%
2, attention: cheap oversold stocks
3, hot Analysis:
This week, stocks in Shanghai stock market experienced a bad but after being hit out of the Xianyihouyang, bottom recovery market, in particular, recent and rare Changyang closed Friday, indicating the market has been bad digestion. This does not fall down, it should call. From the disk to see the broader market bottomed out signs are very clear indicators of Sinopec shares after being repeatedly suppressed large anti-pieces finally Friday, and stability of the market focus, while the non-ferrous metal plates around the market rebound was also formed under the stimulus rebound, In addition, real estate, finance, aerospace industry, breweries and food is very hot early, but recently they are the callback a significant reduction in stocks rebound trend from the flow of funds perspective, electronic information and other tech stocks, as well as small plates, including foreign trade , tourism and other pre-plate are not fully speculation main Masukura signs. After each round of adjustment, the new mainstream of the transfer of hot spots will appear, because fate has turned, the new main when the main will not give the old People's Liberation Army. The new windfall profits in the early varieties will not generate the full performance of individual stocks, tech stocks and merger and reorganization of the cap, lower-class is most likely breeding ground for future Quotes of the dark horse.
Fourth, stocks recommended:
G TB (600.78 thousand) is the leading enterprise of China's energy industry, accounting for the power industry in Shanxi Province for more than 13% market share in a coal linkage is expected to become the new policy, the direct beneficiaries. The Unit is currently the lowest of the 50 stocks on the card, one of the main social security funds and other large positions, while its major shareholder is to spend 500 million yuan acquisition of the company's 20.81% stake in the full description of its development potential. Short-term Xipan Unit has been completed and has been a substantial blow outbreak, is expected to continue strong, it is recommended to focus on.
