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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
With the stock reform and orderly manner, the management re-introduced the "quality of listed companies on the improvement of opinions", the majority of fund managers also confirmed that four quarter of 2005 is a strategic Jiancang opportunity. Through the policy, fundamentals and so careful study, we found the stock market in a big box at the bottom of the region or at the bottom of the region is structural.
Bear in the bottom of the beginning of the end of cattle regions, research on the guiding role of equity investment weakened, in the usual sense of the breakthrough and stop-loss is all too easy for investors to bring a larger investment losses. Thus, fundamental analysis should be the primary method to guide stock investments.
Here we focused on the value of individual stocks is as follows:
Value analysis has been proved to be the best in mature markets of foreign stock investment analysis methods, followed by technology and psychology, the latter two with the game on. At present, the mainstream theory of value analysis method is dividend discount model, commonly used analysis of factors are: price-earnings ratio, growth curve, and other elements of the strategy.
First, price-earnings ratio
As a traditional indicator, which is the valuation of the stock investors, one of the main indicators of the value analysis plays an irreplaceable role. The index is a static indicator, investors should dynamically use.
First of all, for the industry is different from the static price-earnings ratio of the positioning is different. In layman's terms, for the traditional industries, the market price-earnings ratio for a lower position, for the new industries, the market for a higher position. To preliminary statistics, the market now at 5 times the iron and steel industry price-earnings ratio is about 7 times the petrochemical industry, resources, class 10 times, 27 times as medicine, water, public utilities, 20 times, travel 20 times, the banks 15 times to create 10 times, 31 times the mass media. Can be seen in the broader market with the bottom of the price-earnings ratio for the different industries are greatly different location (above the data is incomplete statistics, there are systematic uncertainties on the price of the program is not in effect). Secondly, according to the different growth sectors, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of the change rate is different. The dynamic price-earnings ratio variable speed high-tech industry's largest, while the public utilities, the most stable speed of dynamic price-earnings ratio, the traditional manufacturing industry is more gentle speed. According to a sample statistics, the beginning of 2005, pharmaceutical stocks leading the dynamic price-earnings ratio of 25 times, and now has dropped to 20-fold in the vicinity; and to Water, for example, the average price-earnings ratio of 22.14 in early times, is now down to 21 times. Can see that high-growth plates have a high price-earnings ratio transmission, public utility plate with a stable price-earnings ratio variable, we can predict growth of its traditional industries with low speed was smooth. In general, the face of mass consumption sectors with long-term development, particularly in the consumer to upgrade to investors significant opportunities. Combination of our market, and now medicines, foods, travel, network communications, public resources, personalized clothes have become the representative of the industry the concept of consumer upgrades.
Second, growth curve
Growth factor is the international securities markets of the last century 90's most attractive investment basis, mainly reflected in the growth of sustainable development and performance of jumping. The U.S. NASDAQ market, high-tech stock too fast growth curve analysis representative. Growth curve analysis of listed companies is the most grass-roots research methods, but also industries, fundamental basis of analysis of individual stocks. Analysis process, we need to seize the three points: (1) growth of the base should be slightly higher; (2) growth to be sustainable, it is best experienced explosive growth, taking into account the overall industry growth, giving stocks to provide a reliable growth industry background; (3) The growth of the concept of growth, including high-growth and recovery. Context of the current market, I believe that green, green products, medicine and the concept of a recovery in growth; the logistics industry, public resources, public utilities, class is in a high-growth phase, in which tourism, network communications in the explosive growth stage. Market Tielong, Lijiang tour, Pearl of the Orient has their own unique background.
Third, the strategic elements of
For a transition period in the new markets, strategic elements of the value analysis very meaningful. Elements of the strategy is mainly reflected in the following aspects: (1) technological monopoly, (2) resource monopolies, (3) brand, (4) revaluation, (5) restructuring. Resource monopoly has created a large number of Niugu, the most representative is the oil of energy monopolies; the United States, Microsoft, Pfizer Pharmaceuticals is a typical representative of the technological monopoly shares; brand is also a highly significant monopoly intangible value, intangible value revaluation of Buffett revered. Hisense Electric brands such as the revaluation. Revaluation, the current domestic market is the most popular real estate revaluation, pre-commercial activity on the plate as a whole originated in the property revaluation, but also includes the concept of brand chain revaluation. Integrated Super-G is one of the representatives.
The current market, the financial industry, most major M & A intentions, banking, securities and other financial sector stocks of concern, the companies have foreign shares Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shenzhen Development. In addition the retail industry has a big M & A-based, business center line should also be concerned about the board fast.
As a result, the conclusion is this: When investors choose the bottom of a large regional securities investment, it must exist a technical and mental game. This game, require investors need to have a good investment mentality, to the value of analysis involved in undervalued stocks, with its middle line of thought hold, is not confused by technology shocks is bound to obtain the high-growth brought about by the listed company's investment income.
