Qinghai Salt Lake Potash 000792 a shortage of domestic potash fertilizer to promote high-growth fin

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-05-08

Source: Guangdong Cod Author: Wu is pleased to

Study point 1: This year has been a fund holding, remained at around 28% of the positions, increase or decrease in apparent show of their huge amounts of capital no significant differences in the medium-term bullish pattern.

Study site 2: in the first half performance was 0.47 yuan, in fact, the first half of May by the impact of railway construction, the company outage for nearly a month, plus 80 million did not receive any value-added tax, if not these accidents of factors, performance in the first half of this year at 0.70 yuan.

Study site 3: a shortage of domestic potash fertilizer company's development potential. Potash fertilizer in China is the world's major markets, with annual demand of 1,000 million tons. A serious shortage of domestic potash resources, in 2005 domestic production of potash fertilizer 2.6 million tons, imported 8.83 million tons, in 2006 in the first half, the domestic potash fertilizer import 3 million tons, potash external dependency is close to 70%. The next few years, with the continuous production of domestic potash fertilizer project, the output will be increased, but still far from meeting the domestic market demand, which will form a strong support of domestic potash fertilizer prices, the company long-term growth potential.

Study site 4: import potash price increases to benefit the company. By the end of July, middle peasants, and the international potash giant Sinochem signed a contract in 2006 potash imports, FOB prices in 2005 on the basis of the contract price was up 25 U.S. dollars / tons, import potash prices will reach 231 U.S. dollars / ton. In 2007, the import prices could still continue to rise. Of domestic potash fertilizer company, therefore there will be 100 ~ 150 yuan / ton price increase space.

Study site 5: projections of future performance and are not greatly different well-known research institute broker, basically gives recommendation and bought investment grade!

* China International Capital Corporation to forecast its 06 2007 eps 0.93 1.12 yuan, given the company's stock changed 100 percent committed to three years, profit-sharing ratio, the current valuation lower than the international peer companies potashcorp, the maintenance of recommended rating!

* GF Securities predict their 06 07 2008 eps of 1.11 1.36 1.52 yuan, according to 20 times earnings in 2006, a conservative estimate and reasonable price of 22 yuan at the top!

* Days relative to investment consulting firm forecast its 06 2007 eps of 1.05 1.27 yuan, that the company as a resource monopoly company, its long-term sustainable development potential for all to see, should enjoy the scarcity of resources to bring the valuation premium, give the company "overweight" investment rating!

Historical Information: Salt Lake Potash (000792): to modify the price of the program quickly pulled May 5, 2006

Qinghai Salt Lake Potash (000792): The company in the industry to enjoy a unique competitive advantage, while the domestic potash fertilizer industry supply and demand still greater than the gap in recent years, raising the technological level and market share increased gradually. Trend, the stock price of today's notice to modify the program quickly pulled up, the proposed bargain-hunting interest, holding the center line.