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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Macroeconomic Since 2005, the macro-control has been paid off, investment and economic growth callback moderate profits of industrial enterprises tend to grow steadily. China's economic growth this year, will continue to range from a modest growth rate of the ceiling (10%) to the range of the center line (9%) in the vicinity moderate callback. In the medium term, China's economic growth prospects remain favorable, the main endogenous economic growth driven by urbanization, consumption, upgrading and technological upgrading.
The current macro level, the major risk factors from overcapacity. But as long as the Government continues to attach importance to the problem of excess production capacity and continue to implement macro-control has to maintain pressure to take measures to consolidate excess capacity, excess capacity in the economy will reduce the risk of deflation. 1-2 months of this year growth in fixed asset investment data, industrial investment has been a marked slowdown in growth.
Quarter of 2006, two market trends in our market trend in Q2 of this year cautiously optimistic expectations. Stock market reform to be recognized, the market for long-term development of the stock market increased confidence, investment and economic growth callbacks are relatively moderate, steady growth trend of corporate profits and other factors will benefit the stock market's stability.
2 quarters need to focus on short-term risk factors are new from the old policy may be introduced and refinancing. Reform the current stock market value of more than 50%, new from the old policy, put a date to be getting closer.
The medium and long term, new from the old stock will inject more quality companies, and thus positive on the market long-term development. But the short term, the introduction of a policy, the total market to go through a breaking-in period, during which, the market likely to be a certain degree of oscillations.
2 quarter of 2006 to focus on industries and listed companies to Comment consumer upgrades, technology upgrades, and excess capacity in the integration of the "Eleventh Five-Year" period of economic development theme, and these three topics related investment is worth sustained attention.
Machinery & Equipment Industry: Focus on driving results for sustainable growth, technological upgrading of information technology industry: Tax anti-counterfeiting technology sub-sectors have obvious advantages leading non-ferrous metals industry: Focus on electrolytic aluminum industry recovery, integrated hotel and tourism company's medium-term bullish: Olympic Tour driving day close attention to the regional integration of high-quality assets, the brand features a traditional Chinese medicine sub-sectors: growth momentum value of the company decided to reassess food and beverage industry: consumption in the direction of health food products on behalf of the real estate industry: housing consumption, upgrade and enhance the survival of the fittest mechanism of macro-control highway industry: Focus on Road acquisition and road network capacity growth factors effect performance of the chemical industry: MDI sub-sector into a new round of growth period refining industry: industry, access system, and oil price reform constitutes a long-term positive.
Moderate economic growth continued to moderate the growth rate range of the center line callback
From the reform and opening up the basic experience of China's macro-economy perspective, China's economic growth rate of the appropriate range of 8-10%, median of 9%. GDP growth rate of less than 8%, the employment pressure is large, whereas the GDP growth rate of more than 10%, would be the bottleneck of resources constraints, inflation may occur.
This round of the rising phase of the economic cycle in 2002, when economic growth rate was 9.1% in 2003 and 2004, economic growth rates were 10% and 10.1%, to achieve economic growth moderate range limit. Since 2004, the Government has two levels of land and credit increased the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control. In 2005, economic growth has a callback, to 9.9%. In 2006, the government said it would continue to implement the "double-stable" in-control policy. We expect that China's economic growth this year, the maximum range from moderate (10%) to the range of the center line (9%) in the vicinity moderate callback.
In the medium term, China's economic growth prospects remain favorable. , "Eleventh Five-Year" period, consumer promotion and to promote the process of urbanization will continue to drive the real estate and infrastructure investment increased steadily, while in the Government to strengthen the independent innovation ability of policy-oriented, enterprises renovation investment will maintain a high level of growth .
According to this year 1-2 months of economic data, we generally see a mild slowdown in investment and exports, show trends, and our early expectations. We expect that in 2006, a modest slowdown in investment and export growth will drive economic growth continues to moderate adjustments, while inflation will remain at a lower level. Our basic conclusion of monetary policy, in order to avoid excessive appreciation of the renminbi is expected that the central bank will maintain easy monetary supply, so that market interest rates remain at low level in order to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation.
Quarter of 2006, two large brokerage investment strategies and stock pools unfinished see next page
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