Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-10-04
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: In the unfreezing of funds to stimulate the return, the two cities continue to be steady rise. Banking stocks before the close of the two act together in hair force, Hu Zhi has been close to 3000 mark, and hit a record high. From the market's performance, pre-holiday market sentiment was stronger than expected, but investors still need to maintain a certain degree of caution.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) the market rally is gratifying, but no shortage of worries: Despite the long holiday around the corner, but the market level of activity has not been significantly affected over the past few trading days up at home a few on the rise. As of today the close, the home of the two cities daily limit the number of individual stocks for more than 70. Indices, the weight, driven by rapid increases in the two cities before the close, both innovation and all-time high.
From the technical point of view, the market started on January 31 the sharp decline in short-term decline in more than 10%, normally he should have accumulated a lot of lock-plate. However, today, in the big city across this bit when the pressure is more easily, the situation is similar to red 2245 points, how to understand such a phenomenon?
There are two aspects of this column that the first is the market has remained more optimistic expectations. Earlier the foreign authority had shouted A bubble of the argument, but quickly changed this view. The data from the statistical point of view, does not rule out involvement of foreign institutions is an excuse for A shares, statistics show that set up only in December last year, AMP Capital China Growth Fund in just a month's time, the positions had reached 96%. The second area is still plenty of money. Ping purchase frozen funds of up to 1 trillion, but little impact on the market, while the new fund distribution of funds to re-open their floodgates to more strength and power of the follow-up.
In the market continues to take a good situation, we need to carefully look at the phenomenon of compensatory growth. As the merger and reorganization of assets gradually become the mainstream market, one of the hot, which to some extent, stimulated the edge of stock speculation. In fact, taking into account some local governments had reservations about shell resources, businesses and other factors listed as a whole, individual stocks there is indeed a black-bone chicken change the edge of the possibility of the Phoenix, but the number is limited, after all, so the speculation of investors to participate in such stocks to maintain a high degree of caution .
2) policy remains loose under certain concerns: the recent past, the market faces the policy aspect should be relatively easy, such as to stabilize confidence in the market, the management re-open their floodgates to a new fund distribution; in interest rate sensitive issues, prompted the central bank raising interest rates the market to be taken calmly issues, without a panic psychology, in fact, statistics show that in January of this year, CPI (consumer price index) than the same month last year rose 2.2%, while the CPI in December last year rose 2.8 %, or drop slightly, showing that the pressure of short-term interest rates have already dropped.
Nevertheless, we still need attention to policy on the post-stress. For example, pre-"Management will prohibit credit funds from being diverted into the market, a comprehensive inspection after the Spring Festival, housing mortgage loans will become the focus of inspection. In addition, if found to have illegal loans, bank bears the full responsibility." Rumors, the CBRC Although the clarification, but the phenomenon is indeed caused by their attention. The most important is that if the market re-entry into an overheated state, the policy of the iron hand and the inevitable re-shot.
Strategy, investors still need a strict value investing philosophy, organized around the following three main lines to operate: first, the assets into the main line and industrial upgrading, and second, large blue-chip panel that has some of the assets into stocks, the three movements is a substantial re - Shares of underperformance.
B) the main financial Game:
Since the end of last year, the mainstream funds must take heavy positions, so early can not get out of a sharp adjustment, which had twice raised the objective requirements of major cities. The management of active decompression for the market, just to the main funding opportunities. With large blue-chip leverage, at present the main has been successfully siege. Is expected in the afternoon, the main funds will be seized the opportunity to complete the transfer positions of the action, so some institutions should pay attention to small and medium investors adjusted positions generated partial downside risk.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
The future of large blue-chip stocks and growth may arise between the rhythm of switching, but the hot spots may be gradually tilted to the growth stocks. Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: city of tomorrow, is expected to be a substantial shock.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: It is recommended a good position control, reduce operational.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: It is recommended rallies to trim, proper control positions.
