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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Securities Times
Bohai Investment Zhou Yan
Although not yet entered the annual disclosure of the peak, but because of the performance system as well as notice of 2006 Annual Report of high growth expectations, therefore, are going separate ways to fund the annual reports of A-share market is expected to remain soft spot Quotes, especially those published contrary to the market the expected performance of the pre-announcement Stock Hi, often limit-continuous. How, then, think of this annual report does Quotes?
Heating and cooling industry, highlighting stocks to change refractive power
Adage goes: The securities market is a barometer of macroeconomic, implying not only refers to the stock market price movements will advance to reflect macroeconomic developments, but also refers to the overall performance of listed companies will be reflected in macro-economic as well as the industry development. In other words, the performance of listed companies tend to reflect trends in industry, heating and cooling, or annual results of listed companies is also available from the notice of development of the industry data revealed.
In contrast in 2006 the industry development trend, the first 11 months of relevant statistical data, wine production growth rate of total profits reached 429.13%, column total profit growth in all sectors of the first, the next is the engineering machinery, non-ferrous metal processing, Non-ferrous Mining and Dressing industry, railway equipment and other industries rose by 52.40%, 51.80%, 41.12%, 40.91% (see table 1 may be specific circumstances). These industries also reflect the current macro-economic development trend, as engineering machinery, nonferrous metals and other related industries in 2006 is a hot industry. Interestingly, in 2005, hot, and coal industries in 2006 was a marked decline in profit growth.
Correspondingly, the industry will also have a hot performance of leading enterprises related to growth rate, while the most current industry leading enterprises have issued A shares, so, A-share listed company's performance largely reflects the growth of the industry of growth. Such as liquor manufacturing Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou, etc. Results are pre-hi notice was Maotai, Wuliangye and alcohol leading last year's three quarterly results also showed steady and rapid growth (see table 2 may be specific circumstances). Of course, it is worth noting that, due to the division of the industry as well as the sub-sectors of the economy are not the same and other factors, related to the growth performance of listed companies and industry growth are also slightly different, such as the financial sector in the banking, trust, insurance steady business growth, etc., but the stock market benefited from the bull market in 2006, therefore, CITIC Securities, Hongyuan Securities and equity-related shares of securities companies will become the main force in this year's performance of the pre-hi.
Precisely because of this, the industry also pointed out that the performance in 2006 actually pre-hi shares A-share market highlights a stock was converted into more power. Because the A-share market bull is one of the turning-tradable share reform, while the split share structure reform of the A-share market bull market momentum addition to stock with the right to change factors, there is the release of the performance of listed companies. In fact, this also includes the impact of direct and indirect effects. Indirectly affected mainly refers to the controlling shareholder, the management of the release of the profit-driven, with a direct impact is caused by injection of high-quality assets for revenue growth. Yue Fu, ST Universal, Zinc Industry and other related performance of listed companies pre-hi the case today. It is worth noting that the stock performance of commitment to reform process will run through 2006, 2007 or even 2008, therefore, the growth performance of these listed companies will be continuing in nature, which can better reflect the split share structure reform on the performance of listed companies the release of power.
The key lies in the sustainability of growth in
So the idea of performance in the annual report also reflects the pre-hi gold plate process, the key factor is the sustainability of growth. Because only the sustainability of growth, causing the share price would avoid the emergence of the phenomenon of annual Jianguang Si would give investors long-term investment in happiness, or is likely to generate investment risk. For example, in the 2005 Annual Report of the pre-hi unit excavation process, urea, coal stocks, although a high growth performance, but industry analysts for such industry performance in 2006 growth forecast is not optimistic, therefore, stock prices rise relatively limited. Then, in 2006 Annual Report of the pre-hi stock performance of the excavation process, also need attention to this issue. Should pay attention to those who are sluggish in 2007, the investment risk industries, such as the recent plunge in non-ferrous metals futures, it means that non-ferrous metals category listed companies in 2007, at least in the first quarter of 2007 will face the pressure of the first quarter of quarterly, both so, in 2006 Annual Report of the pre-hi can not produce an excessive price to stimulate the force.
Therefore, in actual operation, must pay attention to sustainability, and sometimes you can ignore the static valuation high. Because some of the listed companies in 2006, after substantial growth in 2007 is still expected to occur over 100% growth, then, in accordance with 2006 The static valuation, even 50 times earnings, but net profit growth in 2007 expected to double, I can safely buy and hold. Similarly, for those who in 2007 growth is not clear or growth prospects of individual stocks, even if the static valuation in 2006 is only 10 times, also need to pay attention to investment risks.
Thinking in this manner, we recommend investors to focus on two types of stocks: One is directed issuance of stock reform commitments or to purchase high-quality assets in stocks with high growth expectations. These stocks has the advantage of controlling shareholders in the injection of quality assets or shares of reform in the process of share reform issued by the commitment of the data is relatively clear, although the share reform promises that are difficult to be realized, but the probability is very low, after all, tend to reflect the share reform commitments, as industrial capital's the controlling shareholder of the company's future business confidence. Therefore, the Zinc Industry, Pioneer shares, Bo Ying investment, cloud-dimensional stake in Guangdong Fu and other firms may be concerned about. In which the current valuation of Guangdong, Fu-a bit low, the market has not yet attracted enough attention could focus on track.
Second, the industry is still not optimistic about the economy or in 2007 with a new profit growth point of the individual stocks. Industry more optimistic about the economy means that degree of the company's operating environment remains favorable, future growth is expected to have a clearer picture. The new profit growth point, if the economy with the industry, the product marketable, then, the company's growth is also very optimistic. Therefore, mechanical device class represented by the equipment manufacturing industry, represented by commercial chains such as consumer stocks may continue to hold or concerns. Representation of individual stocks are Sunward Intelligent, Taiyuan Heavy Industry, the first pencil, Siyuan Electric, Tung Portuguese shares, Guangzhou Guoguang, Jiangshan Chemical and new Huaguang so. Taiyuan Heavy Industry and the first pencil which can be watched closely. Taiyuan Heavy Industry's first three quarters of 2005, performance has been doubled and net profit of Taiyuan Heavy Industry further release of the current momentum. The highlight of the first pencil is the Old Phoenix gold jewelry business, rapid growth prospects are bright.
