|
|||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||
Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
PBC decided to April 16, 2007, the raised deposit-taking financial institutions, the RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. This is the beginning of 2007 since the 3rd use of the central bank monetary policy tools, but also the central bank since 2006, 6th raising the deposit reserve ratio.
1, the central bank reserve ratio to refer to excess liquidity, more and more serious note
The central bank to raise the deposit reserve requirement of this ratio also said that the future will continue to implement prudent monetary policy, make comprehensive use of a variety of tools to strengthen the banking system and liquidity management, maintaining an appropriate liquidity level will be basically to prevent the excessive growth of monetary credit and guide financial institutions to optimize the credit structure, and promote sound and fast economic development.
In this passage, we can see that the central bank's monetary policy objective is entirely targeted at the level of liquidity come. The reason why the central bank continuously rapid increase in the short term deposit rate, simply because of its awareness not only failed to ease liquidity problems, but on the rise.
It should be said, as long as a month of this year's foreign exchange reserves continue to grow at a rate of about 20 billion, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate is absolutely necessary. And at the current rate of increase, by the end of the redeployment of 13 percent is possible.
Second, the austerity measures will become increasingly dense
Since 2007, the central bank have been implemented to improve the margin three times the rate of one more rate hike. This year's January 15, February 25, coupled with the second increase, the central bank will raise deposit reserve ratio by a total of three times, increased by 1.5%. Compared with last year a total of only increase the central bank reserve ratio three times, each time the rate increase and this year are the same.
This shows that, in order to become more serious liquidity problems forced the central bank tightening in this year's efforts have been far greater than last year.
Third, whether the introduction of more stringent austerity measures?
It now appears that the early series of tightening monetary policy tools may find it difficult to play against excess liquidity much effect. Therefore, the central bank play a more intensive, heavy intensity Not surprisingly, the combination of boxing. For this meeting the intention of raising the reserve ratio, the central bank in a public notice did not ambiguous, that is, in order to "strengthen the banking system and liquidity management, maintaining an appropriate liquidity level will be basically to prevent the excessive growth of monetary credit and guide financial institutions to optimize credit structure . "
The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee has made it clear a quarterly meeting and reiterated a "comprehensive use of a variety of tools to strengthen the banking system and liquidity management" policy-oriented. So, in order to achieve this goal, how to take stringent measures to tighten monetary policy can not be overemphasized, "The important thing is whether we can effectively curb the proliferation of liquidity and achieve sound and fast economic growth."
If the above package of measures to achieve the corresponding effect is not expected that the central bank may take a more severe austerity policies, and even directly encourage the establishment of foreign asset management company.
4, the market go from here
It should be said, the central bank reserve ratio increase, said the other side of the trend of excess liquidity will become more serious, the current capital-driven stock market is concerned, but is a powerful support. However, this will encourage the country to accelerate the establishment of foreign exchange investment management companies, as well as 200 billion U.S. dollars bonds, while its impact on the market are worthy of attention.
1. Increase the reserve ratio on the market impact of small
The reserve ratio increase, from one side reflects the situation of excess liquidity is actually more and more serious, also shows that in March the foreign trade surplus likely to have greater foreign capital is in fact poured into the stock market. This basically depends on the current liquidity-driven stock market, but is a great support. So, this raised the reserve ratio impact on the market is small, while the excess liquidity on the market but there is a strong supporting role.
2. Whether to accelerate the establishment of foreign investment management firms cause for concern
In addition, the serious situation of excess liquidity may force high-level investment management companies to accelerate the establishment of foreign exchange. Once the foreign exchange investment management company set up 200 billion U.S. dollars in bond issues coming soon. And this level of financial contraction in short-term impact on the market is not inconsiderable. However, in the long run, foreign investment management firms are also hard to change the growing liquidity situation.
