Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-03-13
Source: Huaxi Securities Author: Xu-Yang Luo
The face of Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market plunged 4.6% Wednesday -5.3%, nearly 360 individual stocks lower limit of the "spectacular spectacle", the investing public spontaneously finger Chuoxiang big expansion: Bank of China issued 10 billion market capitalization and other large IPO, a large number of additional ( directed or open), etc., some argue that in the second half to make a moderately tight monetary policy or institutional investors pare holdings departure. . . . . Reason is easy to find the solution hard to find! Can occur early in March the first pick-up in trend after adjustment it?
Since the wave of bull market, as the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is the main driving force of rising stock with the right to change factors as well as excess liquidity. Resources are stock reform led to the end stage of the market to tap low-cost re-turned to the concept of hot spots, June 7 of the Securities Times, "the concept of short-term capital reorganization of mad speculation stocks - in the recent three consecutive daily limit of the stocks in the ST shares accounted for Qi Cheng", This shows that the right to share profits with reform wave of speculation sparked speculation there. Whenever the speculative tide appear, usually to create market's short-term top. But the share reform has not yet fully completed, quasi-G shares the impact of funds are still being possible. However, if the ST class speculative stocks continue to be a hot market, it indicates that speculative hot money continues to dominate the market trend, while the mainstream market funds do not want this back, of things to continue to adjust the pressure.
With regard to excess liquidity, according to informed sources, the State Department will not soon adopt the policy of raising interest rates, but will further raise the deposit reserve ratio, which will result in short-term bearish bank shares. To follow the regulation of the real estate industry, non-ferrous metals futures prices fell sharply after the adjustment-related stocks rise, banks will once again fall plate stock index fell for the short-term pressures. Faced with the problem of excess global liquidity, we believe that the coming year remains difficult to effectively address, although the short term, policies to make the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets fall, as well as a diversion of funds effects, it is still difficult to change funds in excess liquidity into the secondary market trend. From the medium term, real estate, banking industry, Xi Pan behavior that might bring one of the leading enterprises, as well as more dynamic, and regulated private enterprises have a stronger market competitiveness, thus creating huge amounts of capital to attract bargain-hunting opportunities.
Unit unfinished reform, expansion has to; Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks in this down and back away? Relying on future battles, or search for a new high? Short-term resolve the impasse with at least three aspects disk. First, the component B that, as well as China Petrochemical stabilize. B shares by external factors, foreign investors can also indirectly reflects the sentiment of the A shares tend to; China Petrochemical still has a background of privatization and stock change is the development of wind vane Quotes A shares, the stock is likely to stick to the until after the listing, give up leadership. Second, China Vanke, and G in the gold trend, the real estate section an adjustment to take the lead in April, first adjust the plate first arrested, the forward-looking index have stabilized, as a leader should focus on the deep Vanke. The sudden death of non-ferrous metals but reported that the annual results have good expectations of the plate in the second half should be another wave of withdraw sword Shenglang, while G, gold has once again revealed signs of its leader. Third, in the face of the market can not be "light index, re-stocks." Bring more blue-chip stocks from the IPO point of view, the securities market in the blue-chip, growth stocks is necessarily a long-term investments, the reported annual pre-increased investment in individual stocks are this year's targets, such popular stocks is a market leader the majority of shares, such as consumer goods leading Wuliangye, brokerage stocks leading G CITIC and so on, the shares may not be popular in the short-term investments, the rebound of an object, but the broader market decline stopped playing a significant role in tips.
Uncertainties are removed in the policy context is to promote the excess liquidity is still the driving force behind stock price volatility, in June of the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets may remain high pattern of repeated shocks, too pessimistic or optimistic, are not acceptable for the operation of popular is the buy low sell high, making the amplitude, no increase.
