Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-11-04
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Since the third quarter, structure, division and exponential characteristics of the bull market of the stock market became increasingly obvious that both the fourth quarter of market opportunities and risks. Therefore, understanding the direction of institutional funds Jiancang, position, large cities and opportunities to determine point of capture, there is a positive operational meaning.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) institutional view of the market outlook hi-containing worry: After a haze of the third quarter, the agency views as a strong banking section, the relative become more optimistic. In general, most institutions have recognized the long-term appreciation of the yuan A-share market trend is bullish, one of the most important factors. In fact this is a precedent, and the interpretation of Japan after World War II had a similar thought: in less than two and a half years, a full appreciation of the yen against the dollar has doubled. At the same time, by the impact of appreciation of the yen, Japanese stocks rose Zhu Bo, the last consecutive soared. The end of 1989, the Nikkei average stock price hit a record high of 38,957.44 points. The increase in process, from start to the final end, and continued for 17 years, or up to 19 times.
Another reason agencies are optimistic about the four seasons that the fourth quarter of A-share market performed well, macroeconomic moderate decline will not change throughout the year to run a strong trend, and the corporate earnings situation has also generally improved. Of course, at this point is the eyes of the beholder, the wise see the unwise. Because the three have been published quarterly, although the first three quarters of the overall net profit rose-odd years, overall growth is still good, but for a single quarter ring significantly decreased compared with the sudden point is also obvious.
It is noteworthy that, despite the macroeconomic data showed third quarter growth rate down, the macro-control has achieved initial success, but the tone of the State Council, is still a "fixed-asset investment, money and credit growth drop are not yet solid," a coincidence that rumors of the former State Bureau of Statistics and its holding to step down may be of "high investment growth is not the main reason for China's overheating economy, do not advocate the right investments to suppress radical" point of view are.
In any case, the regulation of pressure from the fourth quarter is still there, and this is also optimistic about a number of institutions in the same time, are referred to the "valuation advantage" of this word, for example, large blue-chip board, iron and steel, transportation facilities, defensive plate, believe that there is value discovery, re-positioning opportunities. Thus, in the macro-control issue, the agency will be better to hold back, or even do not rule out more than not do more than look at the situation.
2) Institutional Aspects of positions: From the published data, as of the end of the third quarter, stock-fund positions for the end of 87.59%, closed-end funds is 77.02% of the final position, configuration-based position of the end of the Fund's 62.25 percent, compared to on a little change. Can be seen that early in July institutional funds withdrawn again in August to run the room. In fact, the body of this fickle phenomenon is not the first time this year to see the index as early as February 1300 occurred at around once. Of course, this also and this year's Quotes of the greater complexity of the relationship. In addition, the institution's new funds are quickly completed their portfolios ahead of the third quarter, landing a new fund of funds enter the market as high as 60 billion yuan.
In the plate, take the fund-based institutional financial structure has the following positions: Mechanical 10.4%, finance 8.37%, 7.15% food and beverage, information technology, 5.7%, wholesale and retail 6.7%, real estate 4.8%. From the above data, the machine is still ranked first. At the macro regulation and control institutions remain optimistic about the machinery, in fact grasp the management's commitment to vigorously support the equipment manufacturing industry, it is expected that in the fourth quarter of this year or early next year there will still be some concern about policymaking. In addition, financial mixed operation, ICBC, China Merchants Bank listed on the valuation and other factors raise the level of banking, making banking institutions Shigekura become one of the objectives. On a final note that the large blue-chip panel did not specifically demonstrated, but is still one of the key agencies concerned.
B) the main financial Game:
Fund three quarterly disclosure, the core of the most direct embodiment of the flow of capital. Today, high-priced stocks with outstanding performance-based blue chip stocks, driving the red tape in 1825 points, it is the main lift to raise money grab the results are expected in the next few days, the main money is still surrounded by the plate start game. Of course, there is also a valuation advantage of large cap blue-chip arena for one of the main.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Recommendations can be goal-oriented blue chips or part of the growth stocks, patience to hold.
Disk X-ray: Awkwardness affected by the main lift the blue chip of tomorrow will continue to be on the red tape, small yang at close.
The opportunity to plate Expected: Expected Tomorrow Fund Shigekura Masukura individual stocks with better performance.
Market Risk point: from junk and some of the valuation of shares and the high, short-term or excessive stocks.
Protective measures: to recommend appropriate control positions.
