Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-06-08
Source: De Ding Investment Authors: Gui-Yin
The Shanghai Composite Index peaked from July 5-point since 1757 have been adjusted for 27 trading days, during which one of the most important market phenomenon that is constantly shrinking volume. Saying the stock market jargon, is called "price before volume", then the current amount is bottoming out? Index and when bottoming out? The amount of each other again in what circumstances it can be bottoming out? Here we have to study these issues.
Concerned about the traffic from the source of funds to trends
First, we need to study is the source of funds. Most of the money currently on the market from the territory of a small part from outside, due to disclosure of information is not completely transparent and other reasons, at present to understand the actual movements of funds is more difficult. We have studied the changes of volume must use a dynamic vision of history and focus on the latest real data, or predict the time that He holds the data as an argument and research method we think is not very desirable. Now ordinary investors through the Internet every day or the next day you can see dynamic data there are two, one is the Central Clearing Corporation Notice of new A-share accounts, one is listed on the HKEx A50ETF (2823.HK) of transaction data . The former is a movement of funds within the vane, which is keen on A shares of funds outside the barometer. As early as mid-May this year, both of which reached a climax, and then have experienced a sharp decline, we can see both inside and outside funds in the top of the performance is consistent, and all of the advance, did the concept of " the amount of the price first "laws of the market. On the current situation of the clients in Shanghai and Shenzhen are still lower, Hong Kong's A50ETF (2823.HK) is not below the low level in June. Recognition of the bottom in the market than the domestic aspects of foreign investment can be more sensitive, which in the first quarter of this year has been been verified. Therefore, foreign investors should pay close attention to further developments in time to take my chances.
From a historical look to the amount of the formation of the law
Second, to study the history of changes of volume. We Shanghai Composite Index since 2000, the trading volume data as object of study, carried out in that year of analysis. (See above table).
In the table reveals the highest annual turnover, the lowest volume and the annual average daily traffic, and the introduction of end-float market capitalization as the denominator of the calculation of turnover, the conclusion is there is reference value. Let us look at high-volume turnover is the highest record was in 2002, 7.145%, was "6.24" blow-out Quotes (tape almost daily limit to close) results in a single-day surge in trading volume this year, only 5.583% while the third highest levels, but considering the share reform suspension elements (in the first half a day there are at least 20% of the stock suspension), is second only to the second highest level in 2002, indicating this year's market activity has been at a historic high. A high degree of activity of course, is conducive to multi-party, but it is impossible to know the long-term, it is necessary to study the other two turnover. From the low volume of turnover of view, this is the highest, which further demonstrates the market's activity this year, the highest degree in history. Everything can not be too radical, suddenly a large change in the event of a subsequent request will generate an overreaction. Fortunately, now there is no end of the year, this year's data as of August 9 date. Time to have room for amendment, the recent market performance is essentially instant success in the first half of the necessary amendments. Is expected to close this year, the flow of market value than the current high levels, mainly because there are multiple large market shares to join, followed by the market will be higher, 0.708% of the level of the history of that time will be reduced to a reasonable level. From this perspective, this year's land supply will not be less than the 6.864 billion, this week's turnover of 11.5 billion is basically close to a level of new land supply.
Be able to see the amount of average daily turnover from the level of
Finally look at average daily volume of turnover, this is a very important indicator, the minimum and maximum only in the year one day, with a certain degree of chance. Average daily volume of traffic can be the most realistic target. As can be seen from the table before the 6 years have not reached the level of more than 2%, the highest in 1999, 1.631%, fluctuation range is 0.993-1.631%, and this year is now 2.154%, is obviously a bit unusual. If you want to back to the previous six years, the highest level, the current average daily volume should be 15.8 billion, the difference between a 5 billion. August 9 this year, there were 144 trading days, with an average day, more than 50 billion, is 720 billion more during the year less than 100 trading days, so that demand in the second half of the volume stable at 13.6 billion level, is this just the amount of the recent energy level. Of course the market will be volatile, given the large market shares to join and market rises, 2.154% of the turnover will decline, but only the next year, the overall volume will be lower than the daily average for the first half of Hand rate was revised to 2% or less of a reasonable level. Want to know the turnover of China's A-share market as measured by international standards, or significantly higher, so can not care for immediate benefits to turnover indicators continued to climb in.
Overall, trading volume, after a few months will probably not occur again the case record high, and 10 billion around the same time, also the amount of a level belonging to a new earth. In order to make a daily average volume to maintain a reasonable level of 20 billion below the longer. Operationally speaking, the closer is the turnover of 10 billion should Opening time. On the contrary, turnover of more than 20 billion will have to note that the relationship between volume and price of optional machine lighten up.
