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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
To determine the market direction, grasp the entry point, first of all we have to ask a related question: the price around the intrinsic value is how to exercise it?
We turn first to the classic investment theory is to look at price movement:
Genre
View
Technical Analysis
Price movements based on trends in the evolution of
Fundamental Analysis
Movement is around the price fluctuations in the value
Modern financial and investment theory
The price movement is random
Behavioral Finance
The price movement is affected by the impact of investor behavior is not a balanced movement
The study of price movement is ultimately attributable to the factors affecting the price, what are the main factors that played a decisive role.
Securities as a special commodity, both the nature of general merchandise, but also has its unique characteristics.
Ordinary commodity prices and value the relationship like? "Socially necessary labor time, or the production value of the socially necessary labor time, determine the value of the magnitude of value. Therefore, containing the same amount of labor or be able to work at the same time produced goods, have the same magnitude of value." (Marx, "Das Kapital" Vol 1, page 52) "materialized in the commodity price of labor within the currency name. Thus, the commodity as its price the same amount of money equivalent of that", "With the magnitude of value into price, this causal relationship between the performance of the commodity on the outside with the presence in its currency exchange ratio of goods. This exchange ratio can be expressed in both the magnitude of value of goods, or it can be larger or smaller than its amount, under certain conditions, goods on the press Such a greater or lesser amount to alienation. "(Marx," Das Kapital "Vol 1, 119,120) Therefore, the commodity prices are fluctuating around the value.
Securities as a special commodity, its price and value of sports law and general merchandise are very different.
Fundamental analysis is based on the theory of "value investing", it said: the value of the stock determines the price, the price is around the value of fluctuations. The value of the stock is always over-or undervalued, but prices will someday return to value. Therefore, through this price and the value of departure from the arbitrage. Therefore, the stock price to determine the extent and value of the departure from the essential. "Basic analysis of faction" that the stock value is the intrinsic value of listed companies by the decision. The intrinsic value of listed companies are divided into two aspects: (1) A listed company owned by the physical assets and monetary assets as reflected in the minimum market value; (2) A listed company's future profitability. Therefore, the basic analysis were divided into a "value stocks" investment faction and the "growth stock" investment camp.
"Value stocks" investment value of the stock valuation party, the main is "liquidated" line of thinking, that is, when the company estimates the market auction, the total market value of assets. This "settlement" price was considered to be very close to the company's "intrinsic value." "Growth stocks" investment camp was followed a "discount" line of thinking, that is, the present value of the company's future profits constitutes the company's market value.
Whether it is "value stocks" investment allocation, or "growth stock" investment value of intrinsic valuation of schools, when are "forecast the forecast." "Value stocks" investment company in liquidation were assessed value at the time, and then assess whether the intrinsic value is overvalued or undervalued. "Growth stocks" investment in schools is under the operations of listed companies, the future of the operation of the company's forecasts, this forecast should be based on the intrinsic value to determine whether it is overvalued and undervalued. Therefore, the intrinsic value is an estimate, not exact values, and it must be when the external conditions change continuously adjusted estimates.
Basic analytical method is usually more appropriate object of study is a traditional mature industries enterprises. Because the traditional mature has become a mature business model and scale of operation, compared with other companies already have quite a strong competitive edge in future competition, in which they have comparative advantages, relatively speaking, and the enterprise's own strong anti-risk nature of the development of Prospects will not be affected by many uncertain factors. Therefore, the use of basic analytical methods to value, are relatively easy and accurate. If it is not in physical capital-based enterprise, the valuation is relatively difficult, such as "Microsoft."
We can be sure the price fluctuations around the intrinsic fluctuations in the value, but from the current economic development point of view, the intrinsic value in itself affected by many factors, is highly stochastic volatility, and prices will fluctuate around the intrinsic value, price fluctuations in the direction of more and more difficult to judge, showing a high degree of random state of motion. Fundamental analysis can determine the value and price deviation, but could not accurately determine the degree of deviation, and the return time. The value of the stock price return time may be very long, investors need to have enough patience for long-term investment. And, because the return time may be very long, there must be sufficient funds to withstand the pressure of the process. The return time may be very rapid, and must be able to respond quickly and make decisions.
Technical analysis were standing on another perspective on the issue price movement, they think the price of each point are the result of a variety of balance of power, so that all the factors that affect the price changes are reflected in the price, for the price of research is of vital important. Technical analysts believe that the price movement is present trends. Why is the trend to run it? Many people are not well thought about this issue simply because the technical analysis theory, it is the trend, we learned from the price charts, to a certain stage has shown a certain tendency, they maintain that it is the trend. Trend in the prices form a kind appearance. Because people's actions when certain events occur, would produce a certain similarity, popular to say that "once bitten, twice shy." Therefore, technical analysis holds that the sum of these events, you can forecast the market outlook, play a role. From this point of view of technical analysis and behavioral finance have certain interlinked nature.
Carrying out technical analysis to determine entry points and exit points, when compared to fundamental analysis and modern finance and investment theory, there is a certain advantage, but the technical analysis to determine Quotes are generally lagging behind development. To verify that the signal because it is valid to wait Quotes must be basically established.
Modern financial and investment theory to look at the price movement with the technical analysis and fundamental analysis of the different views. And it will knowledge of the market rose from qualitative to quantitative. It probability theory and linear algebra method is applied to the securities portfolio study of the different direction of motion correlation between different securities, thereby establishing the asset pricing model.
Modern financial and investment theory holds that price is a high degree of random fluctuations. In 1953, British statistician莫里斯肯德尔experimental observation of stock prices found that there is no change in stock price to follow the law is completely random selection, they are on any given day there may be up or down, past data can not be to provide a basis for future projections. In May 1970, the University of Chicago economist Eugene Fama published "efficient capital market: Theory and empirical research in Retrospect," a text, in the article, Fama first proposed the "efficient market hypothesis." In his view, an efficient capital market, disclosure and transfer of information is sufficient, that is the good news will immediately lead to price increases, and the bad news that property prices can fall immediately. If the information has all been reflected in stock prices, then the stock price changes will not be intrinsically linked, any time, equity prices would be the best assessment of the value of securities. "Efficient market hypothesis" as the modern financial and investment theory (Mathematical Finance) laid a theoretical basis.
The main research methods in economics is to establish certain assumptions, the complex of issues around a simple, convenient in research activities. Even if these constraints will affect the outcome of the study, but ultimately concluded that will not be changed. "Efficient market hypothesis," based on the following assumptions: (1) all of the open capital market information; (2) access to information no cost or no cost; (3) market there is a large number of rational investors; (4) Investors will have a comprehensive and rapid response to information, resulting in price changes. In the end, the stock market prices reflect all information, then call this type of market as an efficient market. Measure of effectiveness in accordance with market standards and range of different information sets representing different degrees of market efficiency, "efficient market hypothesis" will be divided into the weak efficient market effective, semi-strong efficient and strong-three kinds. Under the weak efficient market prices have fully reflected the current stock market information, so, we can further infer any change in current stock prices are completely independent of their past campaigns. The weak efficient market hypothesis directly negates the existence of the basis of technical analysis. In the semi-strong efficient market, prices fully reflect all the current public information, therefore, can be further deduced that investors can capitalize on the current published market data and non-market data to obtain the level of risk than investments in any excess proceeds. Semi-strong efficient market hypothesis also denied the technical analysis and fundamental analysis of the existential foundation. In the strong efficient market, the price is not only fully reflects the current all the information, including public information and non-public information, so any investor can not get the level of risk than investments in any excess proceeds. Therefore, the modern financial and investment theory holds that major investment is to build a portfolio to avoid systemic risk, long-term holders of stock.
Modern financial and investment theory efficient market is based on: the market is rational market, investors are rational investors, if investors are not fully rational investors, the price of games on what kind of impact? In accordance with the efficient market hypothesis, since the information is fully reflected in the price, then the investor psychology as the impact of fluctuations on the price movement is not a relevant factor. However, a large number of historical events of view, fluctuations in investor psychology will have a huge impact on their behavior and ultimately affect the price volatility. For example: the mystery of dividends. From 1973 to 1974 during the energy crisis, the New York City power company plans to cancel dividend payments. In 1974, the company's shareholder meeting, many medium and small shareholders do this trouble, and some even threatened to the company's board members to take an act of violence. In accordance with the analysis of modern financial and investment framework for science, CEC's shareholders will be the energy crisis on the company's share price-sensitive, but will not be for the company's decision to suspend payment of dividends so excited. Because in the modern financial and investment framework for science, investors follow the arbitrage pricing theory, they know that without taking into account taxes and transaction costs case, one dollar of dividends and capital gains, and a dollar there is no difference, they are ready for adoption sell stocks home-made "dividends", and in the income tax rate capital gains tax rate is higher than the real world, would reduce the dividend paid to shareholders better off. So why are so many companies still issue stock dividends do? CEC's shareholders why the company would stop paying dividends to make such a radical reaction? This is Behavioral Finance and modern financial and investment side of the debate to learn.
Whether investors are fully rational investors, it is Behavioral Finance and Investment of the modern financial core of the controversy. Behavioral finance as "prospect theory" to describe the authenticity of people that the financial markets have long-term investors are not rational behavior, and most have "bounded rationality." In the short term, in a specific policy decisions, investors may be rational, and correct; But in the long run, investors do not have the co-ordination and continuity of the optimal investment decisions can not be strictly in accordance with "Bayesian rules, "act in irrational behavior of their investment, even wrong. Market, there is a lot of noise traders. Psychological characteristics of human beings is complex and changeable, in the face to stimulate the market conditions, money, desire, only a few people can remain rational, but even this very small part may also be due to other non-rational investors, the impact of change Debu reason. Because of these psychological characteristics of human beings, there will be "herding" to help or have implications for the price that will be a high degree of deviation from the value, resulting in a price bubble. Behavioral finance behavioral models by constructing investors on the financial markets, analysis of the phenomenon.
Whether a market is really effective, the price is really random?
We believe that the connotation of value is a high degree of random fluctuation, the price is around the intrinsic value a high degree of random fluctuation, but the price fluctuations at the same time with the man-made signs. On the intrinsic value of the judgments can not be very precise, and ordinary investors can not do on the intrinsic value of the valuation study. Therefore, the best investment strategy is to follow the random fluctuations in the price of real-time transactions, through the capture traces of the price fluctuations in the artificial profits.
Man-made traces of how to capture it? People always will be a factor in the price movements to infer that there was because there must be fruit. Since ancient times, people are constantly in the ever-changing world in search of the same law, such acts created a reductive theory (Note: also known as reductionism or reductionism. Is a kind of surface will revert to the more complex things than the straightforward kinds of doctrine. trying to do, as by analysis of the complex to simplify, from the most basic elements to understand the nature of the principle of the whole thing like a change in philosophy.) and determinism (Note: It is a widespread view that the objective nature and human society, law and causal link theory and doctrine.) of the world. Newton and Laplace also makes this idea to an extreme, and the impact of the scientific community for hundreds of years old. Determinism in our understanding of the ideas have a significant impact. Determinism that the system does not have any or random elements can not be mastered, and all conditions are determined. The characteristics of linear equations exactly satisfy this worldview. For a decisive power system, as long as know the power equation and the initial state, the system's future and the past will be in the hands.
The securities market is an open complex system, its cause and effect relationship is not absolute. It has the characteristics of nonlinear dynamic systems, sensitive dependence on initial conditions. A result of the stock market will come up with different results. Small changes in initial value would have resulted in a significant impact. Therefore, we have adopted the idea of fractal system, the initial value will be placed to grasp the changes in a very micro level to grasp. In other words we will be prices to range division, the interval can be unlimited equal portions to observe a price range for each price fluctuations, and a variety of factors into a myriad of factors that a group of two linear equations, the final composition of non-linear equations, analytic solution of nonlinear equations in order to grasp the price fluctuations in the human factors.
You can see the market direction, but the direction is not accurately informed before the appearance, so the timing of decisions in a transaction accounted for 5% of the share can only be considered successful transactions focused on how to choose the right time to raise the utilization of funds, in the wrong choice when the time risk control.
