Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-06-27
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The investor's trading behavior is the only factor that determine market trend, trading activity includes all the technical and fundamental information, all other factors that influence the market, such as the fundamentals, policies, news, technical through the impact investor's trading practices and indirectly influence the market. Investor's trading practices from the operational direction to divide a long behavior and short acts, from transaction to divide an institution the size of conduct and behavior of individual investors from the stock picking point of view of the different (fundamental stock pickers heavy achievements, technical stock picker re - potential) can be divided into investment behavior and speculative behavior (in fact all speculation, where the blue-chip stocks on the speculation called temporary investments, the speculation on the subject shares temporarily called speculation), from the investment philosophy can be divided into the different trends in trade practices and arbitrage transactions.
Today's market conditions: Thursday Wednesday after the market segment to undertake the movement continued to shock adjustment, all-day volatility is not, the Shanghai index closed at a small Yin Zhong Pan Cross star, the two cities a total turnover of 96 billion, a slight decrease in volume compared with Wednesday.
Long behavior perspective: long hair in the previous two trading days strength upside, the use of this equipment is designed to do more real estate stocks, financial stocks and airline stocks. Continuous pulled to do more in the leading varieties of short-term overbought, Wednesday strategically main long rest, can be revisited to avoid the short edge, so that a degree of relaxation, which will help hair strength afternoon, but also to avoid the disclosure of data-sensitive period CPI and do move forward and attack or retreat and defend prepared for both eventualities. Short-term investment capital to use the mainstream of adjustment of time looking for targets to attack hot spots, driving part of the subject shares. Yesterday, this column pointed out that "in the investment behavior-oriented market, speculation is still room for survival," the dominant ideas in the investment period, we should not reject scattered over a variety of subjects to launch stock market, the only way to understand the market and grasp the market. The main and the hot money turns and subject matter in the large blue-chip stocks will continue to do more action for some time, Friday the disk still support that kind of bull behavior.
Short behavior Perspective: intraday shorts are mostly short-term investment capital committed, for example, Shanshangufen, Ningbo Yunsheng, Nanjing High-tech three companies were Bank of Ningbo and Nanjing, as the bank's shareholders will be available by the two banks announced today positive impact of yesterday's stock price rose, lift is a short-term speculative hot money, today's act together in three stocks fell sharply, hot money speculation a run using themes. Accumulated large short-term gains in a large blue-chip escape behavior is short arbitrage of another force, and is a major force Thursday suppress the index, which shares power Xuanxie than short fast, can not afford to continue to exert pressure in the Friday market.
Organizational behavior perspective: The recent issue of the new funds have rapidly Jiancang need to lighten up more pre-QFII funds will see the market stabilized, closing out a very strong demand, in this context, institutional preference for blue-chip general trend is good Although some short-term trend of blue-chip drop, but did not see traces of body mass lighten up, short the purpose of taking mostly short-term spreads, and then look for an opportunity low cover.
Individual behavior perspective: Thursday the financial, real estate, transport and logistics sections of the big blue chips, represented by callback order, off some new hot stocks, this change does not seem to affect the individual investors pursuing high enthusiasm in the stock prices fell in cases, there are 20 cities or 10% of the stocks, large blue-chip Suliang more, the market volume is only a small reduction in retail trading enthusiasm ensured the active disk, this phenomenon is conducive to the broad market, after In the latter take a good trading day.
Investment behavior perspective: adjustment of bargain-hunting in blue chips are still a lot of money, the plate can be phased optimistic, and big city, take a good support.
Speculation Perspective: ST Index, or 2.4%, the index plate or in the day to those in greatest asset reorganization is expected to speculation is a hot topic the other a clue that this speculation could serve the purpose of an active market sentiment, as long as there is no serious the non-rational elements of the healthy development of the market is good.
Trends transactions Perspective: Recently, Japanese-k-line around the 5, 10-day moving average volatility, there is at the bottom of the gradual elevation of the trend, finishing the course of Thursday callback modest, shape to form a strong order to improve short-term forecast upwards Some short-term trend traders will become active Friday; long-term trend is still upward trend, some of the long-term trend trading in the preferred species in the layout do more than short emotional mood. Overall, trends in the number of transactions by 30% preferred sentiment index +1.
Arbitrage transaction perspective: little correction amplitude city, arbitrage traders cautious attitude. But after Thursday arbitrage unwinding, Friday sentiment index arbitrage would be more significantly to positive. 20% of the number of arbitrage trading, arbitrage sentiment index +2.
Conclusion: The main and the hot money turns and subject matter in the large blue-chip stocks will continue to do more actions for some time Thursday to suppress a major force in stock - large blue-chip energy in the short-term arbitrage short Xuanxie too fast in this force does not the ability to Friday continued to pressure the market, institutional and retail investors chase transactions covering the enthusiasm that the early part of Friday to do multi-factor, followed by short-term trend traders and arbitrage traders have the ability to promote the positive involvement of broad market up, the Shanghai index up first target site 3968 points, followed by, or ascribed to continue upside down, pending intraday judgments.
