Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-24
Source: Ling Xue-wen Guangzhou Bandung
Growth Investment Advisory Group
Synopsis: After two consecutive trading days of the bottom after the rally Thursday by the Shanghai and Shenzhen broader market and other factors expected to affect the bad re-emergence of panic crash, stocks and more than 300 serious Pudie a lower limit illustrate how the market is very fragile state of mind, emotion of very serious; in fact, from the recent trend in terms of several trading days, while the Shanghai Composite Index in the 60-day moving average near the access to a certain degree of technical support, but in the process of volume recovery, and no obvious amplification, indicating the market an increasingly complex operating environment, the objective context, both institutional investors or small and medium investors, the market overall investment mentality has clearly become more cautious, which will largely restrict the development of afternoon Quotes. Shape from a technical point of view, after the panic sell into midday Thursday, and closed out the long-Yin Xian, the two cities form of stocks in technology, there will be further signs of weakening. From the operating strategy and asset allocation point of view, I suggest that investors in the current market environment should continue to take robust type of strategy, the proportion of proper control positions.
Today's market conditions
After two consecutive trading days, after a brief rally, stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Pudie Thursday, dragged down by another sharp decline in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock index plunged 5.16 percent, respectively, and 4.03%, to close at both the big and create Yinxian recent adjustment Quotes The closing low, the two cities combined turnover of about 197.741 billion. Index runs from the day the trend point of view, early in the Shanghai Composite Index opened 4080.19 points, and slightly shouting distance of 4113.28 points, after the shock fall, with the midday break 4000-point mark once again after the sharp sell-off increase in , stocks and lead to large late indexes sharply lower limit diving, intraday low of 3912.81 points and in the day time low of 3914.20 points. Shen Chengzhi corresponding sharp diving market, short-term technical form for further signs of weakening.
From the disk situation, stocks serious Pudie the Shenzhen market, the ratio of 38:590 Number of Change, Change Number of the Shanghai market ratio of 74:773. Drop table from the point of view, the two cities large stocks lower limit, including the States to groups, Leshan Electric Power, Central Plains high-speed, Guangdongganhua, CITIC sea till 314 non-ST stocks to daily limit at close. The table or area, has recently been a lower limit of the ST class to initiate a technical rebound in the overall plate market, the vast majority of ST type stocks in order to limit-reported income. Another part of the reorganization of assets, asset injection and other topics stocks such as Hongdu Aviation, Tianhong Baoye, Baotou Steel shares, and so to perform well. In addition, subject to stock index futures "trading rules" such as to stimulate the official release, some of the weight indicator stocks once sought after by the market, including the Yangtze Power, China Unicom, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Baosteel and so on, but apart from Yangtze Power, the other stocks eventually be a drag show ascribed to late diving down trend.
Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened to 4080.19 points, up 4113.28 points, the lowest 3912.81 points to close at 3914.20 points, down 164.40 points, or 4.03%, turnover of 130.883 billion; Shen Chengzhi opened 13,544.05 points, the highest 13,629.45 points, the lowest point of 112,856.26 to close 12,882.17 points, down 701.53 points, or 5.16% on turnover of 66.858 billion.
In news today
Thursday mainly investors to focus on the following information:
1, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Financial Futures Exchange the official release on 27 stock index futures "trading rules" and its supporting implementation details released on the same day. In the "trading rules" and its implementation details introduced, the market will be based on relevant rules of the parties involved to speed up preparations to promote the process of stock index futures market. This marks, including financial futures, stock index futures, including regulation system is basically sound, the birth of financial futures laws and regulations with a solid foundation for the rule of gold in the system and risk management system has been established.
2, 28th meeting of the Tenth National People's Congress held its second morning of the 27th plenary session of the State Council for the Ministry of Finance to issue special treasury bonds to buy foreign exchange and adjust the 2007 year-end balance of government bonds limit motion. According to foreign exchange reserves, growth trends and the monetary policy operational needs, the Treasury intends to issue 1.55 trillion yuan special treasury bonds to buy about 200 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange, as the reorganization of the state foreign exchange investment company's capital sources. Issuance of special treasury bonds for more than 10 years of negotiable book-entry treasury bonds, nominal interest rates according to the market to determine flexibly.
3, National Bureau of Statistics released data show that 1-May industrial enterprises above designated size (annual income of main business enterprises with more than 5 million yuan) a profit of 902.6 billion yuan, up 42.1% over the previous year.
4, as China's national strategic oil reserves a "nerve center", a new national body - the National Petroleum Reserve Center debut is just around the corner. National Development and Reform Commission disclosed that the Center's director candidates and office addresses have been identified, is expected to hold a formal listing ceremony in the near future.
Comment on market outlook
After the bottom two consecutive trading days after the rally Thursday by the Shanghai and Shenzhen broader market and other factors expected to affect the bad re-emergence of panic crash, stocks and more than 300 serious Pudie a lower limit illustrate how the market psychology is very fragile, very emotional serious; In fact, from the last few trading days of the trend term, while the Shanghai Composite Index in the 60-day moving average near the access to a certain degree of technical support, but in the process of volume recovery, and no obvious amplification, indicating operation in a market environment the context of an increasingly complex objective, either institutional investors or small and medium investors, the market overall investment mentality has clearly become more cautious, which will largely restrict the development of afternoon Quotes. Shape from a technical point of view, after the panic sell into midday Thursday, and closed out the long-Yin Xian, the two cities form of stocks in technology, there will be further signs of weakening.
Worthy of investor attention is that by adjusting the export tax rebate policy and the Ministry of Finance issued 1.55 trillion special treasury bonds as the state foreign exchange investment company start-up capital is an impact on market liquidity, will there be short-term liquidity turning point, some economists said the inspection position of commercial banks, the central bank issuing the currency and financial market liquidity, and so on three levels, liquidity is not sufficient, as the market thought so, the current emerging inflection point of short-term liquidity. Supported by ample liquidity is a fundamental factor in the long-term bull market, the author also mentioned in the previous one view, to determine whether the tape seen as a barometer of systemic risk has two: one is the trade surplus. If the three consecutive months of less than 80 billion U.S. dollars, excess liquidity would be a problem. Judging from the current point of view, to adjust export tax rebate policy, after a sharp decline in the trade surplus will be further observation. The second is long-term bond yields will increase the return on capital employed increased violently the lowest level, leading to all assets, including stocks, including price premiums disappear, so once the long-term bond prices led to a violent rise in bond yields is the systemic risk looming signals . Noted that the bond index peaked in mid-March of this year until now has been in decline since the trend, especially from the April 5 show the beginning all the way downward trend shocks. Therefore, liquidity problems should really be investors attention.
From Thursday's disk performance, in addition to ST segment after the recent plunge straight to suffer a technical rebound after the whole, but I believe that the performance for the ST segment should be especially careful. And worthy of investor attention is that stock index futures "trading rules," the official release to a certain extent, stimulated an important part of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index heavyweight active. In index futures trading rules in the official release after the release, including financial futures, stock index futures, including regulation system has been basically complete, and further accelerated the process of introduction of stock index futures. As with index futures arbitrage, hedging, price discovery and risk hedging functions, so to some extent to enhance the sample stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of mobility, especially in a complex market environment and increasing the process of structural differentiation in order to weight the market represented by varieties of blue-chip core assets is likely to be the main body of the strategic objectives. From the operating strategy and asset allocation point of view, I suggest that investors in the current market environment should continue to take robust type of strategy, the proportion of proper control positions.
