Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-05
Source: Bai Ling Securities Daily
2500-3000 cabinets market is still volatile, markets were mixed Friday there a diving session, showing that the market anxious state, chips can not be differentiated, short power has been strengthened. At present two sessions has ended, and vigorously develop the capital market, to promote multi-level capital market system, expand the scale and proportion of direct financing; steady development of the stock market, accelerate the development of bond markets, actively and steadily develop the futures market - it is still 2007 and even the future of a longer period of time, China's capital market reform and development of tone. In what posture the market turn to start a new journey it?
Need time to absorb the shock box
Shanghai and Shenzhen this week, finishing tape showing the pattern of high volatility, trading volume continued to maintain a high level. This week, the market turbulence and the international stock markets show a high degree of relevance, Wednesday and Thursday of the fall show with the rise of the linkage between the U.S. stock market. Market analysts believe that, A venue in the strength characteristics of the stock market is not because of the recent fluctuations change. However, the fundamental long-short factors together also makes it difficult from the recent broad market shocks box constraints.
Surface is still ample capital investment in the market enthusiasm for support. Recently there are more than just equity funds, without exception, be issued and concluded that the current capital supply is still very abundant, investor enthusiasm remains unabated. However, the adjustment of the pressure surrounding the market, especially the U.S. economic slowdown and the yen, the negative impact on the global interest rates and other risk factors still need to guard against, while the A share premium of the Hong Kong stock market, the expansion of the A rise in certain constraints. Is worth noting that, 3,4 A total of more than 2000 billion yuan of the limited sale of stocks traded, and the resulting pressure can not be ignored. In addition, interest rate expectations has always been on the market have more negative impact on the psychological level.
To maintain the pattern of the current market turbulence, the two cities continue to maintain the recent weeks volume massive 600 billion yuan, indicating the market rose sharply after more than a year later, in the face of 3,000 points, a high point, investors view the market outlook, had differences, the early investors in large-scale redemption of open-end funds also affected the market. Internally, the market, the valuation levels will increase profitability in the company and the Chinese financial system and institutional change under the impetus of a return to a reasonable level, relying solely on market valuations down to achieve the reunification less likely. The market needs time to digest the valuation of high levels of short-term, or wait for a breakthrough disk Bureau of exogenous forces.
Sensitive to time-sensitive events
In the month after the publication of key financial data, management will be introduced as the market for the expected tightening policy more strongly to a certain extent, to the market and short-term psychological impact on stock run to a certain extent. Data show that in February 2007 consumer price index rose 2.7%, 0.5 percentage points faster last month, in which food prices rose 6.0%, contribution to CPI increase of 0.3 percentage point. It is noteworthy that since last December, consumer price index (CPI) is running the root causes of high money supply is growing faster than GDP growth rate. In the current negative real interest rates and potential inflationary pressures, the central bank may again raise the benchmark deposit and lending rates, which is conducive to a balanced interest rate return and curb potential inflationary pressures, and management concern is that once introduced the same interest rate increase austerity policies, will increase pressure on appreciation of the RMB. The author believes that management has put the timing of rate hikes, there may be further inspected in March of the financial data to the final decision.
Performance of growth is the fundamental driving force of rising stock prices. Recently affected by the implementation of new accounting standards, including the shares of listed companies and the financial or other equity appreciation potential of the species have been vigorously sought after mainstream funds, by its very nature is also part of the performance of equity to bring value-added growth. Annual Report of living in a good performance is expected to promote the recent performance of core issues surrounding the annual value of mining Quotes will be further extended. Statistics show that next week will usher in an annual report disclosed a small peak, from March 17 to March 22, a total of 87 companies will be released in 2006 Annual Report. Annual performance of substantial growth or have notice a substantial increase in performance of the varieties is likely to be a major focus of short-term market. However, with the annual report of the late disclosure of some poor performance of the company's debut in succession, it will also become a market-sensitive short period of time reasons.
March is also the size of the non-reduction of the relative concentration of a period. With the broader market hit a new high, the stock market float market capitalization rising in March 2007 sale of shares thaw limit the amount rose to 40.1 billion yuan, compared with February's 26.7 billion an increase of more than 134 billion yuan, an increase of 50%. Involving listed companies selling ban is limited to 23 trading days, more than in February of 12. 92 listed companies involved in home, and in February, compared with 81. During this period, if the market atmosphere to warm, the pressure is pretty easy to digest, but the sensitive period when the market correction, reducing the pressure will be larger.
Box break have to look at The Awkwardness of Fund
Worth noting is that a period of time, blue chip stocks in particular, targets small and medium-capitalization stocks perform significantly better than active, asset restructuring, asset injection and overall listing extension-type growth was an important investment theme of this year. Clearly, even behind the lack of blue chip companies, relative balance in the effective break before the appearance of new forces, the market will continue to maintain the box to run, which will also become the mainstream trend. And weight indicators of financial sector stocks performance is an important development vane Quotes, cause for concern.
This week, the financial sector, real estate part of the weight plate simmering stock index led the market's attention. Analysts believe that this may be related to the recent actions of new issues related to the fund Jiancang. According to the fund contract, equity fund raising after the completion of six months to be completed within a minimum 65% of the Jiancang. Within two weeks after Spring Festival, issued four new funds, the size of about 40 billion fund has entered a period of Jiancang; this week issued a new fund, next week we can start Jiancang; recently there are three open-end funds issue. In addition, the recent spin-off two small-cap funds, coupled with high tide approaching the small Fengzhuan Kai, fund expansion accelerated.
Market participants believe that the value of the fund's investment philosophy, a number of blue chip is its strategic configuration of the core species, coupled with pre-including bank stocks, real estate, including large blue-chip stocks have been carried out for a long time to adjust, so the new fund entirely possible to quietly Jiancang large blue-chip. Festival for the first letter of a new fund to build --- Optimization (net position) configuration the Fund on March 9 release purchase, in accordance with previous practice, the open-end funds are generally required to issue over more than a month after the release before purchase, and let Open purchase up time also means that these new funds enter the market Jiancang time.
For the box breakthrough methods and markets, market analysts are still big differences. One view is that the current adjustment of time and magnitude is still difficult to digest the huge profits the previous disc, together with the views of agencies on the valuation divergence continued volatility in the cabinets to time for a possibly larger space ; also Some analysts believe that blue chip companies to stabilize and New Jiancang institutions is expected to lead the broader market 3,000 points out of the upside of the stock market. In short, the fund when the time is ripe to start Awkwardness is the pattern of a breakthrough when the box.
