Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-01-30
Source: Southwest Securities Author: Gang
Changes affecting several major factors Quotes
Sinopec shares of stock reform will result in shock. Sinopec declared a split share structure reform process. The country's second-largest market capitalization companies into the stock reform camp, marking more than a year into the end of the share reform. A stock market value of China Petrochemical more than 420 billion yuan, accounting for 10.9% of the market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen. The company's joining the Direct to the market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock changes accounted for more than 90%. Its initial share reform plans to send 2.8 for every 10 shares of stock. September 7 will be pulling up after the resumption of virtual index rose, while the shares resume trading after the implementation of Ex-change of its total market capitalization will decline, causing the virtual indexes fell, making it a two time on the index will have a greater impact.
Margin impact will be related to blue chip companies. Promulgated the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, "margin trading pilot implementation details." Rules, margin trading the stock must meet a number of conditions, including listed transactions are to be three months, shareholders of not less than 4,000 people have completed share reform, not special treatment, etc.; as the financing to buy shares in circulation share capital of not less than 100 million shares or float market capitalization of not less than 500 million yuan. As a Securities Lending sold shares of its outstanding capital stock is not less than 200 million shares, or float market capitalization of not less than 800 million yuan. The pilot can be the initial list of securities margin trading, and the list could be offset by margin securities, the two exchanges will choose an announcement. The list of finalists after the release of large cap blue chip to attract funds to enter.
Gold Exchange will be listed. China Financial Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the gold) is expected listing in the near future. At present, given the legal status of gold in the new "Futures Ordinance," has already finished the State Council Legislative Affairs Office of the process, is receiving the approval of the State Council executive meeting. In addition, the appointment and removal of gold by the executives have also been completed. In short, all this means that the period of gold in the listing is within sight. Stock index futures are expected late this year or early next year by an official in the Gold Exchange. To this end, heavyweight would be a better overall performance, especially in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 constituent stocks need to pay close attention.
Data show that the tape will continue to adjust
Historically, the month average daily turnover of 200 billion yuan, the next one month the probability of decline appears large, but the stock price reform led to a lot of money on the influx of Major Holders against the price of the market value approach also contributed to the increase in the circulation, makes the law of statistics had been broken. The average daily turnover in April is up to the level of about 360 billion later, in May even up to nearly 600 billion, but in June dropped to 40.7 billion level, in July next to 400 billion with, even in August Next to 300 billion with capital outflow signs are obvious. Historically, the transaction will continue after adjustment appears Suliang Quotes. Therefore, we determine the average daily turnover in September will continue to fall, while the continuation of the trend adjustment.
Financing will gradually increase the size of the two cities. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in the eleven months of the mainland forms of financing public offering of the amount of consecutive zero after the gate opening in May, in June reached a record amount of financing will be the amount of days. At that time the size of bank financing, primarily in China reached 20 billion yuan. July occurred despite the amount of financing a single month decline, while maintaining the level of third place in history, mainly the size of Datong-Qinhuangdao railway financing up to 15 billion yuan. August Although Air IPO, but the overall financing of the scale continued to decline. According to the current public information, most recently an IPO of shares, the financing size of 8000 shares of King Hing Paper, cash purchase in August 31. The next one is September 6 started the cash purchase of shares of the black cat, financing, size of 3500 shares. Luan ring finally be able to start on September 8 in cash purchase, a total of 200 million shares issued. This shows that the gradual increase in the size of the financing is expected that the financing of the September to speed up the pace of the trend. Secondary market funds face pressure shunt. Meanwhile, the investor accounts, the chain increment will be back after a rebound.
Market Analysis and Investment Strategy
Recalling the recent monthly K-line, in the successive three entities in the larger Yang Xian, the broader market suffered from a callback, in March of this year, 7 months to validate this practice. Subsequently, in August on the broader market under the K line with long shadow of the small Yang Xian, showing a high order shock trend, but significantly reduced turnover. By September, if the transaction further declines in broader market will be a more significant test a low.
It is worth mentioning is that ICBC will "A + H" simultaneously with the price of the prospectus, the new issue of A, H shares does not exceed the total enlarged share capital of 20%, H shares issued about 400 million shares, A shares issued of approximately H shares about half its pricing will be closer to the Bank of China, is expected by the end of October at around the same time, listed on Hong Kong and the Mainland. Recalling the Bank of China, Datong-Qinhuangdao railway, Air China announce release message to the implementation of the pre-release, all after a period of decline, and the financing of larger, the greater the fall. Therefore, the issue is expected to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to the broader market also brought about a greater impact.
Qian Qi upwards close to the broad market is currently an integer mark, this location apart from the listing of Bank of China up to achieve an effective result in virtual break up this year after most of the time on the broader market since the formation of an effective suppression is expected to reach the point and the peak fall . Broader market up the previous two weeks, after falling half a month, will likely return to the "51" before the point and that the four modernizations in the vicinity. Investors should be in September drop in the latter half of stage and make full of the psychological preparation.
