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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Guangzhou Securities
Coal is the winter season, into the coal demand in November also means the arrival of the peak season, I believe that there will be an explosion in demand for winter coal, coal, performance is expected to appear pulsed growth, low valuation level there was an opportunity to make the coal market outlook. However, the broader market higher Quotes steadily but remained in the doldrums under the coal stocks, resulting in the causes of this phenomenon and how to seize the opportunity for investors to the coal market outlook to carry out excavation on a strategic level.
After the first two years of coal stocks after the hot speculation in recent years, the performance is far behind the big city, because since the beginning of this year, the state of some energy-intensive investment projects in the implementation of macroeconomic regulation and control, leading to shrinking demand for coal consumption. Dazhong Xiao coupled with a large number of open coal mining enterprises are making an oversupply of coal, the data indicate that the first 8 months of domestic coal production was 1.31 billion tons, an increase of 12.1%, this yield increase and demand contraction caused by supply and demand imbalance make coal the company's performance slowdown.
Coal supply and demand imbalance in the uplink to promote the coal industry are facing at present few of the more beneficial aspects. First of all, the state has opened up coal prices, is no longer a state-set prices before the planned economy model, the market have the final say, the market supply and demand determine the price movement of coal, in the third quarter of coal stocks retreated chain, 8 the end of the social stock of 149.7 million tons, compared chain last month, down 3.39%, which is the coal stocks continued to rise since the March first 5 months back. With the pre-winter storage of coal and the coal supply to phase in the winter, as well as the South reservoir water level decline in the ratio of thermal power to contribute to the improvement of the pressure suddenly increased inventory. And coal is extremely seasonal characteristics of the product of the coal demand for the winter season, I believe that will make the winter season of demand explosion in the phenomenon of coal, coal prices in the imbalance between supply and demand situation is imperative to further increase.
Second, the recent re-introduction of national authorities to rectify the closed coal mines new policy following the end of 2007 30,000 tons of mine will be fully closed, and no longer approve an annual output of 300,000 tons the following items. According to the present in China there are 6000 estimates of 30,000 tons below the mine, then in 2007 is expected to bring approximately 180 million tons of coal reduction, while in 2005 new production of coal 155 million tons, close small coal enterprises will cause decline in the size of the direct production capacity, more importantly, coal production cost structure led to tremendous changes that happened, will directly affect the future pattern of adjustment of profits of coal enterprises. Thus, the actual closing small coal mines and processes is to consider the value of the coal industry investment in a major influencing factors for the future supply and demand in the coal industry is also essential.
Grasp the impact of different leading shares from a development perspective, global oil prices continued to rise, and small coal mines shut down efforts to further strengthen the trend, the coal supply situation is hard for mitigation, a declining coal prices is highly unlikely, from the majority of coal Stock 3 quarterly performance perspective, as a whole to maintain the sound momentum of the past, high-profit, earnings per share came in Shanghai and Shenzhen to continue to the forefront, but considering that in 2007 the release of coal production capacity levels and policy costs to the industry profit squeeze caused by uncertainty, investment opportunities in the coal industry exists only in the consolidation of the coal industry emerged in the individual leading companies, the valuation is low and resources to monopolize the market has always been the main focus of mining the direction of funds. What you want, investors can monitor the productivity and stability release Lanhuakechuang (600,123 market, information, advice, more) and rely on the acquisition of assets of the Group to achieve extension-type expansion of Xishan Coal and Electricity (000,983 market, information, advice, more), the National Yang New Energy ((600,348 market, information, advice, more), focusing on the industrial chain integration and among the nation's largest aluminum producer in Shenhuo shares (000,933).
Shenhuo shares (000,933 market, information, advice, more): As China's six major anthracite base, the actual coal production is currently at 320 million metric tons, the company intends to present additional 6000 million targeted for acquisition-related power and aluminum assets , so that an annual output of electrolytic aluminum production capacity expansion to 360,000 tons, thus among the ranks of the nation's largest aluminum producer, but the state of the aluminum industry, the policy is clear, strong support for electrolytic aluminum enterprises and joint restructuring of upstream and downstream enterprises to form Alumina - Coal - electricity - aluminum - aluminum reasonable industrial chain, the acquisition of shares can be said Shenhuo "is the time", the electrolytic aluminum industry has entered a period of sustained recovery, with the success of the acquisition, the company profitability will be greatly enhanced, company's valuation is expected to further uplift. The secondary market, the stock's recent unusual heavy volume, turnover of up to 69% of funds assigned to the new emerging signs of a breakthrough heavy volume Friday, afternoon is expected to accelerate, investors pay close attention.
