Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-06-17
Investment Highlights:
Stock reform to promote a major shareholder in the shareholders interests and the flow of interest. Changchun Hi-Tech's main business, including bio-pharmaceuticals, real estate development and commercial real estate leasing, the former major shareholder of "Changchun High-tech Industry Development Corporation" Historically, major shareholders and the capital market due to the interests of asymmetry, the company's assets failed to effectively价� In the stock restructuring process, with its major shareholders hold 34.63% stake in Changchun High-tech and "pioneering technology companies, Changchun," jointly set up a "super-up Investment Co., Ltd. Changchun", "Changchun super-tat" became the Changchun High-tech's new majority shareholder. Shares to complete reform to achieve a major shareholder in the interests of shareholders in line with the flow, that is what we re-examine the basis of a company's value.
The company has good growth potential bio-pharmaceutical quality assets. The company holding 70% of the Changchun Kinsey Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is one of the few areas of China's biopharmaceutical R & D and product promotion with their own ability to enterprise, the company main product is a genetically engineered human growth hormone (trade name: Jin Lei Si increase), Genentech Inc. of the product by the United States in 1985, the global market, the main treatment for human growth hormone deficiency caused dwarfism or short stature, in 2004 global sales of approximately 24 billion U.S. dollars. Changchun Gold Cup in 1998, was first developed in the domestic market, started in 2001 to develop pediatric and surgical markets, starting in 2002, Changchun, Kinsey consecutive four-year net profit to maintain 70% growth rate in 2005, sales revenue reached 144 million , net profit of 46.16 million yuan, net profit margin of 32%. Expected in 2006 sales at 1.8 billion yuan, net profit of 56 million yuan. At present, the domestic growth hormone market fundamentals by Kinsey, Changchun, Shanghai, the Swiss co-Nasser, and Serono three companies divided up, Changchun Kinsey's domestic market share of around 40%, ranking China first. At present, because the growing pollution of the environment and food, children's precocious increasing growth hormone market will continue to grow rapidly. The company reserves the long-lasting growth hormone, genetic engineering, the potential of thymosin and other varieties, the company is expected to continue for more than 25% of the rapid growth.
Venture capital project is about to enter Phase II clinical AIDS vaccine. The company holding 60% of the 100 grams Medicine Johns Hopkins University and technical cooperation with the United States to engage in a new AIDS vaccine research, as the only access to the clinical stage of AIDS vaccines, in August 2006 has completed Phase I clinical, expected in 2007 a quarter into two clinical stages. The current global HIV vaccine clinical trials have yet to have successful experience in Changchun, 100 grams regardless of the success of an AIDS vaccine, the company will accumulate the forefront of AIDS treatment information, access to basic return on investment. The progress of the project will also serve as a catalyst for stock price performance.
Confirmed that the real estate business income performance of the company turning point. The company in 2003 to 500 yuan / square meter price of access to the zone of 580,000 square meters of land use rights, planning construction area is 72 million square meters of "new public Yue City", plan 5, the current period of 1-2 has been developed , has completed an area of 34 million square meters, development costs 2,300 yuan / square meters, the project area and design reasons, the completion of the initial sale is not ideal, coupled with sales of settlement delay, once in 2005 a loss of 38.83 million yuan . However, in 2006 as the Changchun City real estate, warming, as well as the municipal government moved southward, high Yee Chung cities have better sales and prices from previous years, 2,000 yuan / square meter up to the current 3,000 yuan / square meter. In 2006 is expected to achieve the real estate company's sales revenue 180 million yuan, the profit of 2000 million. Real estate sales in 2007 expected income 2 million yuan, profit of about 22 million yuan. The remaining 38 million square meters area, from the beginning will also be introduced in 2008 sales. Real estate business, revenue losses, so that turning point performance of the company, profitability, highlighting the contribution of bio-pharmaceutical to be a true expression in performance in the.
Company's strategy to gradually clear and steady improvement in asset quality. The company's future development will be centered around the bio-pharmaceutical industry to carry out, the real estate business five years after completion of the development, commercial real estate rental operations to maintain the Department's overhead costs. Changchun, Kinsey vigorously support the development of the chickenpox vaccine has the potential of varieties of 100 grams of biological research institute to implement incentives and restructuring. And after another poor profitability, damaged strip out the value of the company, a subsidiary of a listed company, the share reform process, the company to the Changchun High-tech Industrial Development Zone has transferred an average annual loss of 6 million yuan Changchun Kejian Corporation 100% stake in the profit and loss balance and at medicine Huakang Jilin Changchun dawn Pharmaceutical losses, the company is also looking for a suitable opportunity for the transfer. The future, the company's asset quality will be improving steadily.
Low market value, the future development of larger space, it is recommended overweight. According to our earnings forecasts, the company 06 ~ 2008 EPS were 0.02 yuan, 0.24 yuan and 0.41 yuan, if a simple dynamic price-earnings ratio valuation, taking into account the company's excellent growth, the company over the next 12 months, a reasonable price is expected to reach 12.3 yuan , equivalent to 2008 30 times PE. From the perspective of the company's total market valuation, we are conservative reasons, the company headquarters in the real estate business and finance expense offset will be commercial real estate lease and headquarters management expenses offset, without regard to real estate appreciation of the factors that the company's value will be mainly from the bio-pharmaceutical assets reflect, even if the value of assets set aside consideration of other medicine, in which the equity value of Changchun Kinsey had 15 ~ 18 billion (estimated 2007 profit of 71 million yuan, 30 ~ 35 times price-earnings ratio, 70% interest), equivalent to a share 11.5 ~ 14 yuan, but now the company only 11 million total market value is significantly lower. In summary, we believe that the next 12 months, the company's share price rose more than 50% of the space, the proposed active overweight.
Composition can be seen from the company's profits in 2006, driven by real estate company's losses and profits and the growth of Changchun, Kinsey, in 2007 the company's growth comes mainly from a loss of the company's roll-out and Changchun Kinsey growth, while in 2008 the company increase was mainly from the bio-pharmaceutical profits: Changchun Gold Cup, and 100 grams of biological growth.
