Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-28
â—?stock reform of the whole process is followed by "easy ones" principles to the. So far, as well as to the completion of 70% of the market value of the time, the trend of prices of basic continuation of the existing laws, while the other 15% of the market value, including in the petrochemical and large market capitalization companies that have special nature of the program but can a standard measure of value, as well as 5-10% of the market value of the company may only be carried out in order to re-stock reform, and its program standard price is difficult to measure, what is left of about 5-10% due to stock market capitalization of the company will shelve the program of reform in very poor condition and the dilemma faced by marginalized.
â—?right price trends, conclusions: 1. The overall trend in decline; 2. Exponential trend, especially indices are expected to price trends and the formation of a negative correlation; 3. Stock to improve reliability and on the price trend has also been the formation of negative correlation. Should be noted that the overall decline is the fundamental unit exponential trend is expected to improve the degree of sound and speed up the trend of price decline only appears in temporarily "rebound" conditions. 4. The more the share reform later, more differentiated specialization of the program will be introduced, some of them it is difficult to measure the standard of prices.
â—?warrants program, additional commitments and privatization programs have a positive impact on A-share market, but a negligible effect on the present situation.
â—?release of non-tradable shares on the A-share market have a negative impact. In the future around the year 100 billion of new value for the money market, there is significant pressure side is, which is equivalent to a year before the five-year average of 1.1 times the amount of the financing. If in the second half of 2005 once in 2006 due to the average performance of listed companies decreased fears of a negative effect on the market, then this year could ramp up the future flow of capital in the market value of the negative effects of the same surface pressure will be shown, and this is expected to advance through the market will be reflected, therefore, thaw the release of non-tradable shares on the market the first time, reflecting the negative impact is likely to occur in the 2006 second quarter and we expect the impact will be very intense, followed by three-quarters of will be the test pressure of a real thaw in the non-arrival of the circulation time, the market's ability to defuse the pressure.
â—?stock reform process in the Investment Strategy: Due to the current valuation of non-G Unit G Unit, disadvantages and potential funding pressures faced by the proposed strategy, the process proceeds in the lock to reduce the non-quasi-G Unit G Unit and the configuration, in turn, increased G shares of the Company's configuration, rather than passively waiting for the non-G Unit G Unit to become better to take the initiative to carry out configuration; tactical G Unit in the configuration process, select the empirical analysis to gain a distinct advantage of the high-g, low PB and multi-chase sent commitment, commitment to G-dividend stocks, in order to obtain a higher excess returns.
Stock investment strategy changed in the process of Each company's share reform process to go through this process: the initial announcement of the price for the first time to communicate the suspension of the price, the final publication of the price for restoration of voting procedure for the second suspension to complete share reform for restoration of two of the most important event was the announcement of the initial right price (stock symbol into the reform process) and the second suspension (logo to enter the voting procedure), where we announced before the initial price of the company known as non-G stocks, the release of the first to the second suspension of the price of the company between the quasi - G Unit, complete the resumption of the company's share reform is called G Unit, classified study of these three in the share reform process at different stages of the stock to arrive at the appropriate investment strategy.
The non-G stocks continue to return to - the inevitable result of the valuation disadvantage "Treasure Hunt Game" comes from the existence of two bases: first, in the market as a whole on the price level and the price of a relatively stable manner under the premise of the company occupied the weight and quality of the company's price level can go beyond the original expectations; second, Most stock markets have not been changed (referring to the program yet to be announced) companies are not entirely caused by excess consumption on price gains.
With regard to the first question on the price level is clearly no longer need to hold more discussions before the first part of the price trends we have described is relatively clear, as the stock into the mid-and late reform, along the 10 pairs of price trend is expected to send three down to form the basic practical right price, even partially, to send three of the more than 10 pairs of prices, is also just a little break and only a special case. In accordance with such a basis to conduct a "treasure hunt" is obviously difficult.
Regarding the second of "excess income" of the problem, we were making stock prices rise for comparison, here we are for a comparison of ideas, compared with the valuation levels, by the end of February 2006, G Unit, rather than the average PE16 times G Unit, the average PE28 times (2005 PE, the same below), filling the gap between the need to send 7.5 to the price of 10, but if only 10 to send three of the basic right price, then the G Unit G Unit into a post-PE is still up to 22 times, with the current difference between the level of G-company valuations more than 30%. And then to December 5, 2005 phased-low data, then the non-G Unit G Unit and the average PE, respectively 12 times and 18 times, apparently three months, both from the valuation gap between the level of 50% of the time extended to 75%. Therefore, the valuation of non-inferior decisions in terms of G Unit as a whole there is no reason to attract funds, unless the non-G stocks appear unusually rapid return, return to fill the gap between the current valuation, but this may not exist a few .
Quasi-G Unit faced an embarrassing - the inevitable result of financial pressures were 4 1 [2] [3] [4]
