Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-07-23
Source: State Yuan Securities
Rapid test a low Thursday morning after the oscillation index up, the Shanghai Composite closed at 2928.01 points on turnover of 74.77 billion. After three consecutive days after the rebound in stock index has successfully stood on the short and medium term moving average, and also on dashed above the resistance at 2900 points, is expected to rebound in the short term trend will continue for a stock index. However, the rebound process is still there are many hidden dangers. Among them, volume shrinkage and hot plate is not sustained the most unstable factor in the market upside, with the present situation, the broader market rebound in the short-term rise or fall in nature, since it is a rebound, we can not expect a rebound of space will be how much it is more prudent to maintain a reasonable one. In the medium term, stock index also maintained in the region in the box, after a full oscillation direction after the broader market will face a choice, we believe that such a choice of directions will be with the "two sessions" of the agenda will progressively improve. Strong potential in nothing more than two possibilities, one breakthrough box, upward expansion of space; second is after box Powei rapid adjustment. No matter what kind of movements there, we believe that to build a 1000-point bull market did not end as long as the country's economy is not a problem, the listed company's performance growth trend is not reversed, then no matter how long adjust the duration, amplitude much, ultimately can not change the great bull market of the trajectory. Multiple current market factors and did not happen to good fundamental change, in 2007 the A-share market still generally optimistic, both the GDP growth forecast, asset injection or two tax merger and other institutional factors, the company's 2007 results continue to maintain high-speed growth of the imagination.
Disk observation, nonferrous metals, real estate, medicine, and some theme-cap stocks are more active, but generally Suliang heavyweight consolidation, although the intensity of the index contributed little, but play a positive role in stabilizing the market, the latter potential does not appear as long as the heavyweights of deep sites adjustment of individual stocks will continue to be very active. Today's another hot spot that is listed as a whole, the assets into the enterprise, such as Shougang Group Shougang trying to take advantage of shares listed as a whole the news came out, Shougang shares opened higher after the day to keep running at a high level. In addition, the "in" prefix businesses or were about 5%. Recent asset again into the enterprise strength, indicating funds are actively engaged, with the advancement of the policy, which is expected to further tap the hot spot will be.
Investment ideas:
SASAC Director Li Rongrong had said earlier that the SASAC will promote in 2007 the shareholding system reform, and actively promote Chinese enterprises listed on the parent company as a whole or the main business listed as a whole. In the hot plate can not be sustained when the overall market and asset market funds into the enterprise to be widely recognized, we believe that the policy guidelines, the overall market, the assets will be injected into the opportunity of an investment theme in 2007. In the operation may wish to note two points: First, major shareholders, as well as quantity into quality assets; 2 is the industry's growth, a good grasp of these two points is not difficult to grasp the main line of the. Individual stocks could focus on non-ferrous, coal, military, electric power, automobile and other large and medium state-owned enterprises controlled listed companies, in particular, have programs or plans of the company, can greatly reduce the risk of uncertainty.
The "two sessions" an important topic is the "two tax merger" is expected to merge within the foreign policy of the income tax is expected to "two sessions" after the uncertainty, of which the most obvious benefit from the plate there are banking, steel, electricity, and such variety is weight accounted for a large variety of markets, once again strength of these species, the Shanghai Composite Index above 3,000 points, should be expected, may be concerned about the concepts such as income tax benefit. Banking stocks as the weight of the two cities pivotal plate, every move will be a significant impact on stock movements, banking stocks rally if we can continue, it means that is expected to continue to drive stock higher. We believe that financial stocks could serve as a strategic bargain-hunting Jiancang species, especially the new shares and listing of two insurers should focus on broad-market index stocks.
