Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-12-08
Source: Zheng Li Ting Northeast Securities
The recent market funds face still appears to be relatively abundant, in two separate ways to convene such news stimulated the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index continues to gradually rise in market sentiment, Shanghai stock market achieved a long absence, "four Lian-yang", "Black 2.27" effect is gradually subsided, more than 3,000 points, the sensitivity has been gradually adapt to the market. Indicators Unit has a large number of buying a row, there is news that will again be lit blue-chip Quotes.
Such a substantial adjustment in the market after a continuous upward trend in 2007 although the market could face more and greater than that in 2006 the investment risk, but the Chinese stock market three to five years, the expected pattern of long-term bull market has not changed, the market in 3000 point again to adjust the one hand, reflects some of the valuation of the company's static and dynamic are at high valuations, it also reflects the 3000 is a more long-short sensitive areas. Including listed companies may be lower than expected earnings growth, macro-economic growth may slow down, may further raise interest rates rise too quickly may be short-term market adjustments are likely to promote increased market volatility.
Diversify the investment theme of the future market appreciation of the renminbi under the theme of the financial, real estate, transportation, etc.; consumer-driven industries to upgrade deepening the economy, including financial, tourism, media, communications, etc.; in line with national industrial policy-oriented industries, including of major technical equipment industry, environmental protection, new energy, etc.; Olympic Economy plate; prepare stock index futures, Securities Lending business, broad-market index stocks as well as the substantive content of equity-based incentives, asset reorganization and mergers and acquisitions into such topics as investment. Small step in the market to maintain a moderate rise, there is a harmonious society of market stability requirements, but more important is that industrial policy level significantly warmer, in the adequate liquidity under the premise of a number of good funds to more speculation to the subject.
Su Liang cautious in the market state, while pulling out of the mainstream financial edge, with short-term hot money hit out in the role of these two factors together, this tug of war between the typical characteristics of siege will continue. Reflect the current market on the ambivalence of the current market funds: in the medium term arbitrage background gradually lost, the middle plate lighten up trapped in the city eager to break through, but because of carry is limited, but to take sides while pulling out of the way; and a number of shares of a strong theme The effect was to make money off of funds for the formation of difficult to resist the temptation to short positions who are eager to admitted stealing money, but it is difficult to find a clear target for the next single. As created by the two sessions this week, still warm in a profitable, out of the market psychology Boyi, this see-saw pattern of upward will continue.
Two sessions, the focus of the recent market, two of which tax is undoubtedly the biggest highlight of the merger, in accordance with domestic and foreign enterprise income tax rate of 25% combined analysis, for the performance of listed companies will bring an overall improvement. On specific industry analysis, at present banks, food and beverage, communications operators, coal, iron and steel, petrochemicals, commerce and trade, real estate and other industries were significantly higher than the actual tax burden 25 percent, the two tax merger of these industries will benefit from the larger .
Food and beverage industry most of the tax rate at 33%, to benefit from lower taxes, not small. And taxes for this major positive, alcohol corporate performance and improve profit margins ton of space now, the stock will subsequently be higher, in the interest banks plates the same time, the consumption of alcohol section, we should also give considerable attention. Focus on attack units: (600,702) Tuopai Liquor, the company is well-known wine industry leader, having with Maotai, Wuliangye par national liquor brands. 2006 Tuopai brand value of authoritative assessment by the world body "World Brand Lab" and "economic United Nations, the World Economic Forum," jointly organized by the assessment of China's "500 most valuable brands," the Ministry of Commerce selected the first batch of "China time-honored" the list at the same time as "Chinese food cultural heritage" to be special protection. As China's national income and consumption level of the increase in consumption of high-end liquor market is also growing, which the company's growth has provided a guarantee. The past two years the company main-year gross margin increased by nearly 1-fold, while the pure liquor consumption tax cut, as well as two tax merger implementation of the policy will be a further increase in the company's gross margin, a substantial increase in performance has become a fact. After more than two months Suliang shocks, the recent heavy volume is a modest rise in stocks in the wine industry started strong stimulation, the Unit is expected to exceed the convergence triangle, walked up, a positive track.
