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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
While the market has steadied late last week, but the weeks in the K-line, or a Yinxian Generally speaking, the market's strength has diminished. First, look at the situation transactions. "See the astronomical amount of days" is the rule of the market, in the May 16 the two cities appeared 89.2 billion the amount of the history of the next day, the volume gradually decline, to the last Thursday has been shrinking to 56.8 billion transaction. Moreover, the two cities for 10 days and 5 days the amount of the transaction have also been formed Sicha, consider the transaction prior to a massive amount of rare history, we believe that the trend of shrinking trading volume has been basically formed. Quotes need to be strong and the volume to support, in the case of transactions and gradually shrinking, the market is difficult to avoid the shocks lower.
Meanwhile, the shares changed to a later stage, the market environment changed. Quotes of the current round of stock reform is an important theme, but now the reformed companies have more than 2 / 3 of the stock has been changed to a later stage, share reform has brought about positive for the market to fully digest. Management's focus of work has also begun the transfer, re-financing and IPO has gradually become a major concern of top management, the management of direct financing of the speed of advance beyond the market estimate. With the re-financing and IPO's to resume this week, there are new shares issued, the market supply and demand of funds will also be changed.
Finally, the external market conditions have changed, the role of the A-share market to repression by the support. Commodity prices, there was once a rare slump in history, despite the current rebound, but the possibility of the formation of the head stage is very great. Metal stocks are the most important hot spots of this year, the metal commodity prices led to the adjustment of metal stocks on the market confidence greater blow. Overseas stock markets also appeared more substantial adjustment in the United States, Hong Kong and other markets in May to drop in the basic rate of nearly 10%. In the A-share market valuation level is already an international circumstances surrounding the market decline does not support the independence of A shares up. Will also be expected in the short term shocks order situation, waiting for a breakthrough clear direction.
However, the advent of the idea of a bull market has gained the market's enthusiasm can not be quickly dissipated, especially in the performance of individual stocks are still very active. Change a day to stop the company from the situation, every day there are a large number of companies are still at the limit-and a nearby location, or 9.5% of the number of companies around the fundamental are 30-40 at home, even if last Tuesday's index dropped circumstances, or more than 9.5% of the companies still reached 22.
Overall, the market has been weak, for the callback should be to prevent the possibility of investors, short-term operation can take a relatively conservative strategy. The first is an appropriate control of position, to avoid systemic risk. Second, is to select high-quality listed companies. Volatility of the market has some uncertainty, but from the medium to long term, stock prices finally decided on the listed company's own texture and value, so the best choice of quality is a means to resist the market risk.
At the same time, as the market remained relatively high enthusiasm, some radical will not soon be out of money, short-term opportunities can be concerned about the two types of stock: No stock reform unit. Stock market reform is the theme this year is the biggest hot spot; while the advance of reform with the stock, no shares of reform in reducing the number of companies, "scarcity value" of these shares will become the focus of hot money. Shares of the company has yet to reform the company also has a lot of problems for these companies in the stock is expected to change in the reorganization of the market have great hope. Last week or the top 20 companies, not yet completed share reform companies 15, accounting for 75% of the short-term opportunities for these companies is worth attention; plunge in stocks. With the advent of broad market adjustment, the recent rapid decline in many stocks there, especially in pre-or a huge company. However, these companies have soared early stage is not without cause, disk is also deeply involved in a lot of money, once a rapid decline is bound to get attention of funds, typically such as metal stocks and so on, short-term opportunities cause for concern.
With the massive turnover occurred in mid-May after the transaction and gradually shrink, uplink power down, while market conditions have also been transferred evil, and last week's market volatility adjusted trend. On the whole, we believe that signs of market weakness, investors should be appropriately cautious, to recommend appropriate control positions in order to avoid systemic risks. At the same time, as the market remained relatively high enthusiasm, some radical will not soon be out of money, short-term may be concerned about the plunge in shares and not shares of stock reform of market opportunities. lar
Q: Last week, A-share market trend appeared wide shocks, and the volume is rapidly shrinking, Shanghai stock market turnover has shrunk to 300 billion with, then, how to look at trends such as characteristics of it?
A: From the perspective of the evolution of Quotes, Quotes trend mainly constrained by two factors, one with plenty of volume, the second is a valuation of the stock of gravity. Looking at the present A-share market turnover has become abundant in the past tense, after the three trading days last week, the turnover has shrunk to 300 billion yuan, optimistic investors think this is a kinetic energy of the short side short recession, the results of chips Xishou , but pessimistic investors, it means that incremental funding approach off the pace slowed down considerably. In other words, incremental funding appears outside the A-share market valuation of gravity had doubts. Fact is that, after the main Shenglang since April, many high-quality stocks have been the dynamic price-earnings ratio is 30 times more, A-share market average price-earnings ratio was also high dynamics of 30 times more outrageous in Shenzhen, up to 55 times This incremental funding for the off-site, the apparent lack of gravity, so it means a higher valuation standards have been admitted to the off-site resources to bring a high threshold. What's more, outside the capital also find a handy, this is officially open their floodgates to IPO, with the number of large high-quality companies enter the market, are also available outside the capital subscription of new shares steady rate of return, therefore, additional funds the probability of entering A-share market to drop significantly. That being so, A-share market turnover shrinking Shanghai Composite Index's upward trend blocked, and will have a shock last week's wide trend.
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Q: Last weekend, ST segment trend is on fire, and the two cities there are as many 38 ST shares rose to 5% of the limit, so a large scale among the ST segment or the front table, how to look at it in this trend?
A: ST segment there is such a trend, mainly in two points, one ST plate current stock price is low, with highly speculative, and second, ST segment changes facing the peak of stock, because ST segment is stock reform hardship cases, therefore, a large number of The ST shares of stock have not yet changed, so Jiugei markets available for the space of imagination. More important, insiders said, ST segment of the share reform and restructuring is often combined with ST Unit also gives the reorganization is expected to promote the hot money of the ST segment of the market's attention. Moreover, because the ST segment of the stock and assets into the reform process will be accompanied with the expected, therefore, the ST segment of the stock market will be relatively optimistic, not even rule out a large number of stock price soared to double or even possible, because the ST segment of high-quality assets injection can indeed stimulate the individual stock price generated double Quotes. Thus, ST segment operations is actually very simple, that is, from the current strength of the controlling shareholder has been involved in the potential of the ST Unit to find shares, after all, all the ST shares can not be obtained through injection of high-quality assets, the fundamentals mutation, so ST stocks are risks. However, if the current is strong enough to intervene in the controlling shareholder, the stock is also at a record low, then the risk would be relatively lower.
Q: With last Friday's sharp rebound in turn mean that the A-share market is facing a rising chances? Does turn this week, a new high?
A: Because last week's turnover of rapidly declining, even in last Friday, although the Shanghai Composite rose 22.47 points, but the volume is only 24.7 billion yuan, indicating the market incremental funding is not sufficient, this also explains the future of A-share market trend to rely on the stock of capital to maintain, and history shows that the trend on many occasions, the stock of capital can hardly maintain the market's strength, at best, able to maintain the market's balance of city, and as such, if this week's trading volume is still maintaining the current level, broad market trends are not overly optimistic. Of course, since shares of Sinopec has not yet changed, and the outer plate varieties of non-ferrous metals futures after the crash is expected to be supported, therefore, A-share market crash is not much probability that the A-share market this week, the trend in order to narrow the main shock, vibration region for 1550 points to 1680 points. Retaliatory if the non-ferrous metal futures bounce occurs, then on the box along to the 1700 may be near. Because of this, we expect to do more passion this week, may be inhibited, mainly in industry recovery, no shares of stock reform and other sections, of which ST segment may be very difficult to promote all of the shares of stock reform ideas have been short-term hot money digging out, it is suggested that investors with a restructuring of ST plate in stocks is expected to be concerned, for example, î–?ST Bo Ying, î–?ST Arata, ST Tunhe, î–?ST Min and electricity.
Q: Last week, the industry the opportunity to begin to be felt, coke, iron and steel, carbon fiber and other related stocks active in the stock again, then, how to treat them arising from the investment opportunities?
Answer: Indeed, in the disk, you can clearly see that coke plate, steel plates, carbon fiber plate and so is relatively optimistic about the prospects for the development of funds related industries there positive Masukura signs, in which the price of coke bottomed plate recovery and the future no longer have the capacity to release such a large-scale industry background, giving money bullish confidence, and thus have a G Shan Jiao, G Aetna, G plate strength of coke gasification and other features. The steel plate is also typical of the recovery characteristics, related to the movement of individual stocks are also active. But for the carbon fiber industry, are nascent industry, the market is relatively tight supply and demand, industry analysts report that production capacity is only 90 tons / year, but the annual demand to reach 4,000 tons, therefore, Huayuan stock, G Da-Yuan and other firms not bad trend. Because of this, the next stage of investment opportunities, and will not be lowered because the market remains stable, as long as positive changes in the industry, then the corresponding investment opportunities will be generated. It is worth noting that the stock funds to the configuration of iron and steel stocks also reflected in the sought after warrants for steel, the Baotou Steel, Handan Iron and Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Anshan Iron and Steel's warrants are in the recent flood, the characteristics of an institution involved in funding, but also According to the analysis of the industry as well as the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued warrants infer relevant information we can see, Baotou Steel, Handan Iron and Steel Group, Baosteel Warrants have infested figure, it appears that money to make a fuss around the characteristics of the industry become more obvious, it is worth close attention.
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