Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-07-31
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment
History does not exactly the same, but surprisingly similar. Now tape on since January 4 to 2850 points since Friday to two months and five days time in the 2850 points, finishing up and down oscillation, similar to the May 15, 2006 after the August 7, 2006 trend.
Finishing the longer poised longer, their libido big, their hair must be fast, that it must be one big explosive force, rate of rise and fall definitely not small, it will soon start the pace is fast out of order areas, making a visual mess. As the broader market in 2006 from May 15 up to the 1650 points or more, to August 7 in the 1650 three-month time point up and down oscillation, and then break up, all the way rose to 3000 points, up 1350 or thereabouts. Finishing the present large-scale also has more than two months time, will not have the same result, we must pay close attention.
The immediate short term, the trend is unlikely to happen, first of all from the time point of view, this is not enough time for finishing. Second, the short-term market fundamentals and the technical existence of four major departure from:
First, since the New Year, leading and lead stocks lower divergence. Second, the New Year since the stock traded higher with the departure from the Su Liang. Third, since the New Year, H shares and A shares into the middle to adjust the maintenance of high oscillation departure. Fourth, since the New Year, some amount of private equity funds began to lighten up and retail 3:00 departure from the queue formed to buy the fund. Why is there so much is not a normal market situation? Through these deviate from the phenomenon itself, let's take a look at these phenomena behind what.
Departure from the faucet with the broader market reflects the preference for all types of funds
First of all, the leading stocks fell with the broader market higher at the same time appeared, indicating the former market leader, recently suffered a large selling pressure. The people who hold these species is leading whom? Institutional investors clearly occupied a primary place. While the market's driving force is from a multiplicity of themes from the recent stock speculation heating up the situation, the general public and general market institutions are the main driving force. This phenomenon we can also deviate from the fourth through the above explained. The market shares of many leading private equity fund favorite varieties, they formed a moderate lighten up the pressure on these stocks stage; Meanwhile, ordinary retail investors flocked into the capital market, there queuing to buy the fund over the years a rare scene, indicating that retail funds, or constant into the stock market.
Price became more cautious in the amount of departure from the instructions to buy
Stock price and the amount of run departed from there, which they say? After the Spring Festival, while the Shanghai Composite hit a new high point position, but the overall market turnover began to gradually shrink, the last few trading days is even more apparent. Shanghai market, nearly 30 average daily turnover of 850 billion yuan, while the last three trading days (excluding Friday) the amount of the transaction are only 700 billion yuan.
In general, the market will rise in Suliang are two possibilities: First, the market basically formed up consensus, and sellers reluctant sellers, leading to decreased turnover; Another possibility is that the original trend of the market maintain the inertia of rising investor Run the pattern for the future is not a consensus, but the differences appeared large, buyers began to caution caused by decreased turnover. Is it prudent buyer or seller the amount of departure from reluctant sellers, market price formation is to determine the amount of departure from the market after prices to run the key. Judging from the current situation, we believe the market is far from the formation of the future market is expected to be significantly higher in the contrary, investors are beginning to care is a fact. Therefore, the amount of departure from the reason for the formation of prices is likely to come from the latter not the former.
A, H shares departure from the show A share investors to be too generous on the one hand, A, H runs diverge, reflecting the differences between domestic and foreign investors. It can be said, H shares of the recent adjustments of foreign investors to look at the empty stage of H shares, resulting in H shares have more than 20% of the decline; on the contrary, A-share market investors are buying at this time is still a strong force, supporting the operation of the market. Of course, compared to the valuation of the two markets, we will be very clear to see that foreign investors is still quite picky; while A share investors are also overly generous. Currently A, H market, price-earnings ratio, respectively 36 times and 18 times.
On the other hand, we can also see that since 2003, A, H linkage between them significantly strengthened; from a longer time perspective, the volatility of both is basically the same; but during the operation stage, the two but often there are gaps. Case in the past shows that if the operation of H shares to determine the trend of the formation, A shares tend to occur following performance fluctuations. We found that H shares in large fluctuations in the A shares tend to lead from 1 to 1.5 months. In this fluctuation, H-share index after the New Year began to adjust to the week's biggest drop of more than 20%. So, A shares of this will appear as strong as ever to follow the fluctuations of it? Linked to the points mentioned above depart from, we believe that at least part of institutional investors and private equity fund is to think so, because their behavior illustrates this problem.
Friday market closed out the cross-Star, Shenzhen constituent stocks index closed out the weaker Yin Xian, Shenzhen composite was longer under the shadow of the yin Cross Star, March 9 with the time window, comprehensive look at this may be short-term inflection point appeared in the broader market will enter the adjustment. There is only one situation can change this situation, that is, changing the last set period of time the world is a broader market Monday pulled out large Yang Xian, the present situation, this is unlikely.
The overall market, the assets into shares and other topics are also staged shot play, the assets into the listed company will make a great change in valuation of assets, especially in the new accounting system, equity investment gains and losses included in net assets of the company is hard to imagine there explosion of growth. If a stock broker has a stake into the subject matter, then it means that a super-star stocks will soon be born. Proposed to focus on 600,811 Eastern bloc, their massive financial stake holders, while the major shareholder the East into the Orient Group Co., promised to finance or energy mining assets, as Minsheng Bank, Jinzhou port, Xinhua Life Insurance, Orient Home, the national securities are in the East Group name, so the majority shareholder stake in the hands of only 600 million shares of financial securities, Hai Tong Securities (shares of 208 million shares equivalent to the city, at present market value of about RMB 5 billion) into the possibility of a listed company great, the new accounting system, these assets will Orient Group net assets per share are expected to burst to 20 yuan, 10 yuan is currently undervalued share price staggering, it is worth focusing on.
According to the current number of public agencies to determine a comprehensive analysis of research reports, the Eastern bloc as a financial holding group is facing a major shareholder equity injection or the overall market, investment value of rare cities. In 2007, the major shareholder of the East part of the industry is expected to inject quality assets, Eastern Industry is very likely to achieve some or even the entire market, the Oriental Group, a financial holding companies prototype being formally established. The so-called Oriental Industrial quality assets, in effect Haitong Securities 600 million shares of stock in this part (and some of Xinhua Life Insurance, and the United States Yalian Bank shares, etc.). Haitong backdoor listing of the city shares the backdoor program stresses the partial replacement under 208 million shares of equity shares of the city, at present market value of nearly 5 billion. Eastern Industrial in the future will very likely only the cost of the asset value plus a certain percentage of the price of a premium to the replacement of a listed company, Orient Industrial Co., or Therefore, the overall market, or listed companies capital operation platform, to build in financial investments and investment holding companies. In fact, the East is also the industry to do so when in the performance of stock reform commitments. Once Hai Tong Securities asset injection, Orient Group name will have the Minsheng Bank, Jinzhou port, Hai Tong Securities (now the city shares) such as banking, securities, port types listed company resources; for 19% of the shares of national security, according to an investment bank bidding program, the next step will likely be used Haitong-stock merger, when the Eastern bloc is expected to hold more equity Hai Tong Securities. In addition, the company held by the Xinhua Life Insurance, Oriental home market is only a matter of time.
Orient Group's financial holding giant image is very clear. Major shareholders and holders of the company's actual holdings are constantly Zhang Hongwei the outstanding shares of the Eastern bloc, it is a long-term bullish fundamentals of listed companies proof. Under the new accounting system for listed companies under the new value will no recluse, a major shareholder intentionally concealed assets, it will be impossible, so Zhang Hongwei, chairman of the Eastern bloc continue to fans at the end of the company's equity holdings was not difficult to guess.
From the secondary market performance, the Eastern Group has more than a year out of a large cattle market, in particular the recent stock trading volume continues to enlarge, shows that new money grab chips, obviously there are major fundamentals of the company's confidence in . Under the new accounting standards, the company huge amounts of financial assets and asset value of their homes in the East a huge, conservative estimates of net capital per share is expected to surpass 20 yuan, the current stock price of 10 yuan undervalued clear up space for amazing, it is worth investors to focus on.
