Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-05-28
â–?Director of Guangdong Development Fund's investment Zhu Ping
A shares and class H shares, compared, generally there are three types of parity: The first is the large-cap stocks, domestic large-cap stocks such as Bank of China, long cables, the valuation of H shares to be slightly cheaper than some, but it is a normal fluctuation range; Article based on two kinds of funds as the main long-term investors to hold shares in the total market value of such stock is moderate, with consumer and enterprise-based innovation category, its valuation of similar companies than the H shares slightly more expensive, but also an the normal fluctuation range; the last one is more active in a variety of recent, small-cap stocks, or are based on expectations of future performance and growth, or are based on expectations of the so-called restructuring, valuation is significantly higher, price-earnings ratio more than 100 times the a minority. But why is there such a valuation is significantly higher than the stocks?
Institutions, held last month to participate in a consignment fund promotional activities, fund investors naturally want to answer questions, did not expect the first problem encountered is "the fund in the first half of your company's profits are high, almost doubled, may I ask, if the How soon can an investment to double. " My answer seems to satisfy those who find it hard to ask questions. From the statistical data, if the stock market a long-term annual rate of return can exceed 10%, that is a very good income, and, for example, the overall benefits to the domestic market may still be negative now; and if the higher level of investment management, benefits can be 10% of the long-term beyond the tape, that is a long-term average annual income can be up to 20% level that can almost be regarded as a master, of course, this refers to the size of funds with billions or even hundreds of millions of dollars of funds.
It reminds me of a textbook on the game case. If you have only 10,000 yuan of money, but tomorrow, you need 20 thousand yuan, assuming you have no one to turn to borrow money, chose to go to the casino to try his luck, when you can have two responses: One is the slot machine, bet a thousand dollars , won a thousand dollars earned, its probability is 40%, lost lost a thousand dollars, its probability is 60%; the other is roulette, a bet is 1 million, the probability of winning or losing ibid, losses or gains are changed into a 10,000 yuan. In order to be able to cobble together 20 thousand yuan in the future, you will choose which one do? The answer is the latter, because the slot machines can only win one thousand dollars, if you want to win 10,000 yuan, you have to bet 10 times, the probability of achieving target of 40% of the 10 th power, small to negligible; while only Roulette required time, so the probability to achieve its objectives is to 40%.
It now appears that in May after the stock market investors may be mainly by the market effects of more than 50% of the money attracted, and its expected rate of return is very high, so although the probability of benefit from high expectations but low yield large-cap stocks are still so little interest because, according to the above analysis, to invest in such stocks to achieve high probability of return is very small; and institutions Shigekura stock due to cumulative rate of return is too high and difficult to get traffic, new money do not want to intervention; Therefore, the pursuit of the third category of high-yield stocks have become the main choice of funds, these funds may also know that on the whole would ultimately loss, but before that to achieve high returns and the probability of escape from investment in large capitalization stocks than for high the probability of return is much greater.
But with the increase of such stock price after the stock market are to achieve high probability of declining returns, so from a rational perspective, there will be more and more capital faces two options, either to reduce the expected rate of return, or to leave the stock market. Whatever the choice, the structure of the abnormal stock price and its hidden behind the market wrong, seem likely to be corrected.
