Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-10-22
Signs of a rebound in fixed investment; industrial production of basic simultaneous increase in revenues and profits; price index gradually lower; the money supply has increased. With the interest rate swaps, foreign exchange contracts and more new products, market-based financial markets as well as its breadth and depth will be further improved.
Proposes a focus on copper, aluminum, lead and zinc as the representative of the non-ferrous metal smelting industry, communications and electronic manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing and beverage manufacturing industry. The automotive industry production and sales picked up, but the capacity and demand is not a fundamental contradiction between the long-term mitigation. As the automobile more than 30% decline in steel prices, is expected mid-2006 the automobile industry will be a modest increase in gross margins.
Digital television as a whole in June deadline for the advent of translation, related equipment orders there will be a local peak, forming the concept of good.
The coal industry, production increase and price volatility is not, inventories declined. Industry profit margins year on year of negative growth.
The power industry, the recent re-coal linkage according to the principles of the possibility of large price increase is expected to change the trend of the power unit behind the broader market situation. Electrical equipment industry, the economy was slightly down.
K-line connected closed four months after the emergence Yang Cross stars, which means change will happen disc. 1339-1311-1307 insurmountable resistance. Very clear at the top of form. Although the indexes are still near the shock Qiansan, it seems to maintain strong, but the downward pressure has been growing stronger.
A Shares: up to down
In March, the Shanghai index Xianyihouyang, and a record high point of 1313, but no firm Qiansan shows great resistance to that location. Repeated at a relatively high stock shocks, on the one hand that the market forces to do more than surviving, it also revealed the suspect ship shock.
On K-line from the point of view, with revenues in the doji appears after four-yang, which means change will happen disk, prior to the performance of the upward trend, so afternoon will be turned down. 1339-1311-1307 insurmountable resistance, even if we manage the success of the red, it will be very short-lived, because the 2245-1783 resistance points close, so you can determine, in December 2005 began to rise in the basic Quotes finished running.
K-line from the Japanese point of view, trumpet shape is very clear, the current stock runs in morphology along the vicinity, as the last show on the tilt along, so there is the possibility of a new high, but its height will be very limited, estimated at around 1,320 points. Since the shape is a top of the form, so that even a new high, we must maintain a clear understanding of, and the afternoon will be significantly longer decline. The next 20 day MA is to enhance the breaking down of an important basis to determine the estimated rate of at least the year down near the line (rounded to 1150 points). Technical indicators and indexes have also prompted the departure, and the prices will soon change.
Overall, although the indexes are still near the shock Qiansan, it seems to maintain strong, but the downward pressure has become increasingly strong, changes may occur at any time disc.
Industry and Listed Companies
Automotive
Investment Rating: follow the Big City
Pick-up in auto industry production and sales, but the auto industry's long-term capacity and demand has not been fundamentally alleviate the contradictions. Automotive steel prices have dropped 30 percent compared with 2005 more than expected mid-2006 the automobile industry will be a modest increase in gross margins. April 1 onwards, China's consumption tax adjustment ,1.0-1 .5 L of the passenger cars from 5% to 3%.
In 2006 the first 2 months, China's auto sales 1.0113 million, an increase of 47.75 percent, while passenger-car sales rose 67.7% to reach 733.6 thousand, commercial vehicle sales up 8.22 percent to reach 247.8 thousand. January import and export trade surplus of 635 million.
Round the expansion of passenger car production and sales, we are more inclined to think that is a shrinking supply caused by excessive short-term rebound. 2005 passenger car sales in the first 2 months of just 456,000, down 9%, which is the second 02 ~ 04 years of rapid growth in production and sales into a consolidation year. In 2006 the growth rate a bit higher the compensation factor.
Ministry of Finance decided that from April 1, the right to adjust the consumption tax in China, where passenger car lines, and the light is divided into two sub-headings for commercial passenger; pairs of passenger cars (including off-road vehicles) according to the size of displacement applied to each 6 files rates, for the light commercial buses, application of a 5% tax. Reduce the tax rate is 1.0-1.5L of passenger cars, from 5% to 3%. The domestic brands crowding together of the segments is positive. Since the displacement range of the vehicle market, all domestic passenger vehicle sales accounted for more than 30% greater impact on the market. However, considering the country has to meet the emission standards for model early reduction of the consumption tax, while the rate of downward adjustment of 2%, the estimated positive impact on the market is limited. 2.0-2.5L passenger car tax rate from 8% a slight reference to 9%, 2.5L more than passenger cars (including off-road vehicles) are greatly enhanced rate, since these models only the domestic market, sales of all the car sales 3.2%, so very little overall impact.
For the full-year prospects for the automotive industry, we believe that taking into account the automobile steel prices have declined in 2005 compared with more than 30%, we expect mid-2006 the automotive industry's gross margin will be a modest increase in gross profit margin of 18% of vehicle , but that does not change the automotive industry industry-wide low-profit status quo. The main reason is that the investment began in 2003 the peak, so that 06-07 years of automotive industry overcapacity over 40%.
Communications Industry
Investment Rating: weaker than the broad market
Telecommunications market in April 2006 is still no major fluctuations in the annual report is expected to be launched, in April traffic section will show sluggish. One bright spot may also occur, namely, in June due to the overall translation of the digital TV deadline for the arrival of the second quarter, orders for digital TV related equipment will be the emergence of a partial wave to the digital television equipment manufacturers to form the concept of good .
Telecom operators: the four major operators in the disclosure of annual reports. The operators of the new business has become an important growth point. Growth in the Telecom business is mainly Internet and value-added services in 2005 increased 37.6%; Netcom's broadband and Internet-related business revenue reached 8.352 billion yuan, increased 34.6% over the previous year; Unicom's value-added services revenue growth of 65.2 over the previous year %; mobile messaging and ring-back revenue grew 303%, WAP revenues increased 97.6%. Although the overall performance of the four operators performed well, but there is a general decline in ARPU value. Construction uncertain future 3G operators have no plans to 3G capital expenditure.
China Mobile's net profit more than the sum of the other three carriers, up 28%; Netcom's revenue growth less, relying on cost savings achieved substantial growth in profits last year, a listed company from its parent China Netcom acquired the assets of the four provinces, all four revenues of the province of about 18.5 billion, for a total profit of listed companies, China Netcom contributed 15%; China Unicom, in turn, last year's sharp drop in the performance situation, access to steady growth. CDMA operations have been achieved in the second half of 2005 profit, however, remain a full-year pre-tax loss of 200 million yuan; China Telecom's revenue growth slowed down, highlight the initial installation fee included in income, resulting in net profit year on year decline, suggesting that the relevant authorities as soon as possible mobile licenses issued to alleviate the decline in fixed-income status of communications.
TD-SCDMA testing program to finalize the size of China Telecom in Baoding, China Mobile in Xiamen, China Netcom in Qingdao construction network. Three operators to provide testing equipment Datang, ZTE, TD 3 equipment providers, including Datang and TD Tech help China Telecom in Baoding network construction; ZTE and TD to help China Mobile in Xiamen to build networks; Datang and ZTE Cooperation to help China Netcom in Qingdao to build networks; the entire test is expected to be completed in June, the result may be held in June announced TD International Summit. Followed by the relevant departments will finally determine the timetable for 3G commercial. Licensing most likely debut in China Mobile and China Telecom arise between. See the matching equipment providers still feel that China Telecom and China Netcom on the possibility of a larger number of TD.
Equipment Manufacturer: UT Starcom (Nasdaq: UTSI) the absence of an annual financial report submitted in 2005, the company shares on March 29, 2006 being delisted from the NASDAQ Stock Market; scheduled to be completed within the first quarter of 2006 Siemens and bay-core assets, integration, be postponed until the end of April before the end; in access rate remains competitive and the focus of the case, at present China Netcom, and telecommunications on the broadband market share is very high, the Great Wall Broadband, Gehua, Founder broadband, such as FibrLINK smaller share of 20 broadband companies are brewing set up broadband alliance.
Digital TV: The State Administration of Radio data show that the recent Shanghai, Hunan, Shanxi, Guangdong, Guangxi has formally started the conversion process to digital TV. Manufacturers scramble June inflection point, the State Administration of Radio ultimatum in June and television departments at different locations in the digital television transition will be the number of countries billions of dollars of support, in June will no longer be supported after the conversion work, all around the Chamber of Commerce in the second quarter, a large-scale procurement of related equipment. A total of 2 1 [2]
