Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-06-08
Source: Huaxi Securities Author: Xu-Yang Luo
After year-long rise, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market is difficult to form a simple head, it is difficult to quickly complete the technical adjustments and this is after the popular tide of speculation is not casual atmosphere, there are both old and new money for new investment hot spots in strategic layout, in the Game of both speculation and investment, the market definitely need a period of transition to adjust the technical side, adjust the investment direction. Technical adjustments to the current shows strong Shanghai Shenzhen weak, A shares B shares strong and weak, in accordance with past classical technical analysis, market adjustment is not complete. Had fallen materially to rebound, the rally had come down, stock prices did not increase in amplitude, in June the stock market has produced a strong finishing high of the pattern. Later development depends on the policy and market the Game, Game speculation and investment will ultimately decide the direction of development.
The policy guidelines of the baton in both directions, one, the market focus will be gradually changed from the stock into the expansion, the market's response is to share the profits diverted to the new shares of the profits rise, so there CAMC 50 high prices. He thus developed to a windfall profits investors actually cost more than shares of profits and its share prices away from fundamentals to support the final value to return to the road must go, and then may lead to new shares Gaokaidizou the down cycles, which is related to plate , bring stock to suppress the role of individual stocks and, ultimately, a drag on the drop. The high cost of post-IPO Jiancang necessarily allow some institutions holding high-beating, more speculative stocks will increase the market bubble, blue-chip stocks will lose parity edge. This trend continues, not hype a death one, that is, to suppress stock, and strive to reduce the cost Jiancang. Thus, the present market shares of the stir-fried is based on share reform on the basis of profits, both stocks resume trading after the liberalization reform decreases pulled up space, another speculative speculation warrants mad passion. If the new shares through stock speculation can be an opportunity to change and smooth to push profits higher Shenzhen and Shanghai stock index, it must be the end stage of this round of Quotes; otherwise, its drag down stock will break the pattern of strong adjustment to accelerate the emergence of mid-course adjustments. In the early stages of expansion, the market has to develop in the direction of the negative signs!
Second, the monetary tightening policy will guide the funds to invest in the most profitable businesses. RMB loans the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate, raising the deposit reserve rate, the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets fell after the first rise, suggesting the market to fully digest the impact of this bad news. However, the former Lord Shenglang triggered in May, which continued to rebound, the market is already reflected in the weak before the strong and then you can imagine, if released again tightening, the market will weaken further do? Securities market has always had the role of optimizing the allocation of resources, to the investing public money it is, how can regeneration money, speculators will continue to warrants, garbage stocks make the difference, in concept stocks in the surf; investors need to pick gold eye, in the new shares and the old stocks in the blue-chip growth stocks to choose. Tight monetary policy has not yet pulled out of the stock market funds have a fundamental, it is expected that the introduction of follow-up measures will bring more pressure, so it is speculation or investment, funds must be selected in the selection of varieties.
These two development opportunities outweigh the risks, but the choice will determine the direction of the market. In the current strength of the adjustment, both the concept of Binhai New Area, agriculture, the concept of speculation, another consumer goods industries, non-ferrous metal plate such as the phenomenon of re-investment, speculation and investment in the competitive equilibrium condition, in line with the pattern of adjustment. But to break through a balanced pattern is bound to have a side effect of the strong traction to bring sustained profitability, in the end is the most profitable businesses to obtain capital continued to intervene, or whether funds will continue to produce the most money involved in stocks? We hope the former! However, the new status of speculation at present belong to the latter, and there will be further development trends, market outlook, detrimental to the development!
