Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-05-23
Recently a friend serving in the securities media, throwing me a question: What are you trust a researcher's report. I asked her, she said that only with the regular running of enterprises and found that other than reports highlight a researcher; and TV stock analysts may only be Lex Ever Victorious generals. I agree with her view.
Although I am not a fund manager, has remained a daily reading habits of a large number of research reports every day to share important species pool of technical, financial, and industry dynamics scan again. I with a number of researchers and the investment industry veteran to communicate, it was found many problems. The level of evaluation of researchers is not that he can spin gold from straw, but rather on the industry and the company's overall grasp of; not short-term profit outlook, while in the medium and long term bigger picture; not in the company's performance, but in the unique vision of the enterprise .
First, the dynamic development of the industry to understand the financial grasp of any person who is not able to do a good job, and truly understand the depth of talent the industry knows how to look at it. One only read the financial statements, translation of the article the securities industry analysts and an industry veteran who saw the world completely different. I have a friend to do consumer electronics business, he often visited in domestic major companies, many of them listed companies. Companies and researchers in his eyes the eyes of the companies is enormous. For example, the same trend in the first half of last year, a sharp production of ICs, in his eyes, this is basically the company's equipment, second-hand goods, from the opening to the completion of IPO has not bought a single latest and greatest equipment, its fixed assets in Taiwan, accompanied by less than 1 / 3. Just a good product sales, operating rates high, the rapid expansion of production capacity was created nearly two years of high growth performance. Is one such company, and many researchers are given brokerage Overweight; only a small number of researchers because of its lack of transparency and the refusal of its financial ratings. The latter conclusion is clearly more cautious and objective.
Secondly, many researchers on the industry economic conditions and the relationship between listed companies, the lack of grasp. When in April last year, further tightening macro-control began when the researcher, regardless of the cyclical industry indiscriminately hit a neutral or even underweight rating. The results of the advantages of its industry enterprises are also being irrational sell-off, to the second half they realized that control of the leading enterprises are good then hastened updated forecast. Such a thing happen again this year, when the second quarter, the so-called second-line blue-chip into liquidity risk, many researchers also reduced shipping, non-ferrous metals, chemical and machinery industry, part of the high-quality rating of the company. The fact is, a house was down to neutral shipping enterprises to special transport and tanker transportation sectors, these two transport of BDI (Baltic Dry Index) index plummeted by the influence is obviously much smaller, but these two types of transport New capacity compared with the scrapped capacity determine its operability and profitability growth. I once read in one day two of the company's research report, a bearish, because the shipping industry cycle peaked; a look at the maintenance of many areas of their operations out of judgments. A similar situation occurs frequently in the second quarter of this year, second-line on the blue-chip group. They seem to forget that China's stock market is indeed one of the few industry leaders have long-term investment value, but in the forest for the trees, the pursuit of short-term fluctuations in earnings.
In addition, industry researchers is also reflected in the difference between communication skills and research vision. Let us, China's stock market as a weak efficient market, the company's stock price before the release of information had to respond, the share price movements is related to messages honored process. Therefore, if a researcher's personal charisma strong and the company secretaries to directorate to maintain good relations, can obtain information in advance, in order to provide a reliable basis for investment. Furthermore, researchers found that whether the level of company management, cost control and technical equipment is also reflected on the advantages and disadvantages of its ability, for example, how to improve a company's operating cash flow, its non-recurring gains and losses come from and so on, these need in the company's various departments to find out.
Although the study can not be completely about investment decisions, at least it reflects the industry and listed companies in the past, present and future. The value of investment and international practice requires a high level researchers, industry, and company have a deeper understanding can be cautious, unique, responsible research report issued by researchers at is what we really need, otherwise, we just need to run the company's dug good news.
