Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-07-10
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The major impact of stock index futures are reflected in the period before the introduction, most investors expect the impact on the market, over the expected reaction by the market to correct, thereby creating phased market opportunity. The management of the introduction of index futures under the principle of sound, to a certain extent, as is the policy on the index of the stage of recognition, but marked the policy pressures will slow somewhat.
The major impact of stock index futures are reflected in the period before the introduction, most investors expect the impact on the market, over the expected reaction by the market to correct, thereby creating phased market opportunity. The management of the introduction of index futures under the principle of sound, to a certain extent, as is the policy on the index of the stage of recognition, but marked the policy pressures will slow somewhat.
1, the index futures market, the true impact of
In fact, we believe that index futures may not be the actual impact on the market, as many market participants have estimated the current as large. On the contrary, the stock market can move toward a decisive impact on index futures, while the index futures market is less true.
1, the index futures small-scale
Introduction of index futures, the beginning of trading rules are subject to various limitations and because of their is a new derivatives, the size of their transactions can not be too big. Such a small market, it is impossible right now with 2 trillion market value of the stock in circulation have much real impact.
2, few participants
Also out of the precautionary principle, the index futures launched at the beginning of its more limited, with most of the market investors are not familiar with the species, so participants may be very limited.
The smaller the size of index futures on the stock market, driven by a limited role. On the contrary, it can be a decisive impact on the stock market index futures trend. Of course, this was on a purely rational point of view on the analysis, the actual market is not totally rational.
Second, is expected to be before the introduction of index futures have an impact on the market
Although the index futures market, the true impact of limited, but the market is always the case of irrational run on the market the vast majority of investors in index futures expectations, the market will have some impact. And this column that the right index futures over to reflect (that is expected to exceed the true impact of too many cases), but may create short-term market opportunities.
1, is expected to have an impact on the market
Most investors in index futures market expectations, will definitely affect their transactions. Namely, if we look at the impact of an empty index futures will be introduced before its time to sell the stock, or at least cautious trading, and vice versa.
2, in the current position on the market most of the investors in index futures bearish view of
As the index has been based on the end of 2005 rose three-fold more than the stock market bubble is also widespread concerns, coupled with policy, surface pressure, the current bearish market sentiment are somewhat cautious. And such circumstances, any sign of trouble may lead investors to sell stocks. At this stage, the launch of stock index futures (or is the introduction of hearsay), are likely to play a bad influence.
3, over-reaction may create short-term market opportunities
This column that do not conform to real market conditions of the reaction may be to correct market's own initiative, that is the mistake most people actually will achieve short-term market opportunities. The introduction of index futures is no exception, if the co-ordination in a market environment, due to introduction of index futures led the market tumble, and the reaction is too intense, they may give the market to create a low chance of non-rational stage.
Third, management stressed that in principle the introduction of index futures steady
This column believes that management's introduction of stock index futures The main principle is to maintain its listing to the smooth running (not spike), thus contributing to the gradual to maintain the healthy development of this species. In this principle, the management will choose the more recognition in the policy side, a regional launch of index futures, so from another point of view we can not think that management's introduction of index futures has to a certain extent, the stock market by representing the policy Office region's basic identity.
1, management stressed that the introduction of index futures and secure
CSRC Chairman Shang Fulin said in his speech the launch of index futures work stressed the need to "focus on steady introduction of financial futures, better to play the futures market functions."
We believe that management will not want to launch the beginning of index futures, fall on the spikes. This one can understand why the beginning of 2007 once delayed the introduction of futures futures. Because in the circumstances, the introduction of index futures is easy to occur in the stock market driven has soared, and clearly not in line with management's intentions.
Should be said that the current launch of index futures may be the most important issue is the timing on the.
2, the index futures introduction of the policy aspect of the meaning of
In our view, precisely because the management want to introduce the beginning of index futures to maintain a stable trend, so the point on the introduction of index futures option with great caution. Management will not index futures to regulate the derivatives market, but will choose a reasonable location of launch of index futures. So we can assume that management's introduction of index futures, also said that the face of the prevailing market policy, the more points are recognized. The introduction of index futures point in time, the market risks faced by the policy may be rather small.
4, in the current location of the impact analysis of introduction of index futures
Taking all these factors, this section that the introduction of index futures in the current location of major impact may be the following:
1, the index futures may lead to phased introduction of market opportunities
As the current point position, the market generally inclined to cautious attitude, coupled with greater pressure on the policy side, prior to the anticipated launch of index futures may lead to a rapid adjustment of the market. Once such an adjustment, due to market over-reflection and the subsequent easing of pressure on the policy side, they may give investors the creation of a low stage.
2, the index futures is not the only factors that influence the market
Also in this column that the index futures is not the only factors that affect the current market. The excess liquidity, a large number of fund distribution, the potential severe violation frequent supervision, non-tradable shares lifted much more than its substantive impact of index futures.
So we have to judge the entire market trends, it should be considered by various factors.
