Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-07-09
Source: Xiao Yu Hang Jiuding Allianz
The recent A-share market have emerged in many varieties of about 40% of the large riots or trend, after last week's slump, after June 4, benchmark Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3981.82 points, after hitting a high point of 3987.27, the lowest 3659.09 points, closing at close at 3670.40 points, down 330.34 points, or 8.26%; Shen Chengzhi opened at 12,393.25 points, intraday high 12,468.58 points, the lowest 11,464.23 points, closing at 11,468.46 points, down 964.23 points, or 7.76%. Board a total of 226.1 billion yuan traded between the two cities, significantly reduced compared with the previous day. Hu Zhi today, below 4000,3900 consecutive points, 3800,3700 point mark four integers. Shanghai and Shenzhen respectively, one-day drop 330.34 points and 964.23 points, a record single-day point drop history. Intraday again nearly 1000 stocks lower limit of the situation, and some varieties of the crash in a row over the surface of the history of any one species decline now that the capital market could fall across the board, but as an important indicator of the real estate market of assets should attract investor attention, the stock market crash is possible that a precursor to the real estate market bubble burst.
Despite the current real estate market from the national point of view, housing prices are still rising in some places the process, but my analysis, China's real estate market, an important factor is to look at the vacancy rate and the price earnings ratio, the beginning of National Bureau of Statistics: National commercial housing vacant area of 123 million square meters, up by 23.8%, is still in a growth phase. Among them, 69.83 million square meters of vacant commercial housing, an increase of 19.7%. Although it has performed in many cities as housing prices continue to rise, but its a huge vacancy rates are accumulated, on the one hand is the virtual up the price of one hand, the house vacant for many years accumulating more weight in the real estate market in China through the study found that, from the fundamental point of view, the state's macro-control real estate industry will continue, such as credit, land value-added tax and other policy changes, while the most critical is the current boom in home prices over the years, making the economic and social sectors and consumers started to seriously rational analysis of their distorted prices, such as a few days ago from the external media, "the Australian newspaper", "Lianhe Zaobao" and consumers will clearly see that foreign investors or the media that China's real estate prices are too high, such as the U.S. housing price converted into price per square meter to less than 8,000 yuan, but unlike China's so-called "building area", according to U.S. standards developers to use the concept of the residential construction area, the U.S. unit residential unit in the under 8,000 yuan per square meter is also should be discounted. As the Sino-US housing conditions and the pricing differences, Sino-US difficult to directly compare prices: most of the United States is 2-3 storey residential buildings, with garage, swimming pool, equivalent to China's high-level villas and townhouse; the United States are operated by Home Builders existing homes, and is a fitting room, basically similar to China's mansion. This price of housing in the United States converted to price per square meter to less than 8,000 yuan. More importantly, the United States regulate the use of the residential real estate construction area is different from the Chinese concept of "building area", directly to the statistics published on the basis of the projected area unit, the United States residential area of the data is relatively undervalued, its measurement unit under the Residential Unit also need to discount. Under normal circumstances, prices rushed six times average household income of the area is what economists call a bubble zone. In China, 20 times the annual income per household to maintain high growth rates are reasonable, such a high price can adhere to for how long? Therefore, more and more domestic consumers from the price when the new understanding, I believe that housing prices for at least a substantial overdraft up has been completely over the pace of yuan appreciation, since last year, the market shares rose sharply in the real estate point of view, has overdrawn its multi-year rise in space, so from a fundamental point of view, the real estate market bubble may still be formed by the market price bubble burst in the capital after the outbreak of a centralized point in time.
From abroad such as Singapore introduced a one room system point of view, China's real estate may also be rolling out various measures to carry out the real estate market regulation, the author found in Beijing, leasing a house, some homeowners may be as many as the number of sets, and some vacant house, where for many years, many high-grade office buildings are not described by developers, in fact, above all due emptiness, but also reflects the waste of the wind and the reality. In the Central Plains city of Zhengzhou, I see a lot of vacant houses there, and more places are a one high-rise where they stand, this contradiction has intensified the market phenomenon illustrates the risk of increasing the real estate market, unrealistically high prices, as the stock market bubble burst at any time, as the timing of the formation of sharp decline, while the present situation, the stock market in the asset bubble in some species have begun to cut the price drop style, I believe in China's high housing vacancy rate in the accumulation of goods, the larger the circumstances, the price of income over a period of serious overdraft of international warning line, a dramatic drop may occur at any time, the U.S. property market, the sharp decline in Japan's property market that any asset bubble reaches a certain stage, at any time, may rupture.
