Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-09-11
Source: Jia Morning News
56.375 billion yuan. Volume on the Shanghai Composite Index yesterday to create a "land supply." Week to week, turnover is also only a total of 388.709 billion yuan, and the "5.30" where the week's turnover has reached 1.261928 trillion yuan, two-phase comparison, can be said to be worlds apart.
"Land supply", the broader market go from here? "Land supply" after current "premium" is the old shareholders are familiar with an adage, which seems to imply that the market has bottomed out; but there are also analysts believe that the current sluggish volume performance is the inability to rebound, rebound unsustainable, then the The only alternative was once again down direction. Well, in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares will choose what kind of direction? To answer this question, it must be recalled that "in quantity" causes.
Cause I: few people throwing
A buying and selling, have a turnover. Volume continued to shrink and fewer people are thrown clear. Fewer people are throwing is not a good thing? May not be!
Why do people throw less, no doubt two kinds: first, those who want to throw almost before being thrown, and is now close to their short positions, no stock can be thrown. Why is "5.30" and "6.20" when the volume is very substantial? This review is obviously a large number of smart money is the opportunity to lighten up rallies, and now the shares of such funds can be thrown very small indeed. Second, people do not bear to throw quilt. May 29 To date, more than 30% of the stocks fell to 641, for holders of these stocks, if not stop in time, it has now suffered enormous losses, most of them were afraid it is only passively wait for a rebound and reluctant at this point to be "flesh" in.
Cause 2: Buy fewer people
In the meantime, the early money has been short positions does not seem to admission of the initiative. Every time the market bottomed out when the bottom of the big bang, because of smart money bargains. Unfortunately, although the A shares of another rally last week, but the volume has never been able to enlarge the real admission to do more of the capital, is limited.
Not surprisingly, from the date the end of 2005 has experienced nearly a year and a half of the bull market, the index rose over 300% peak, there is no reason more than ten per cent down month, down a month or so on the adjustment is completed. Ask close friends with short positions, many are waiting to continue the adjustment of 3300 points, 2700 points, is their ideal entry point position. The Shanghai Composite Index is currently 38.52 times price-earnings ratio can not be considered an absolute low.
Is not necessarily to the amount of low-level
Compared with 56.375 billion yuan and pre-trading volume is indeed low. However, the low-level not necessarily have a "land supply." "Land supply" This is something to be confirmed later, after heavy volume. At one time, we thought 900 billion was to land supply, then that is the way the amount of 80 billion yuan, and then later that 70 billion yuan, 600 billion, but the market has continued to challenge our "self-righteous," after the low volume can be more low. 56.375 billion yuan, temporarily appears to be to land supply, but not necessarily to the amount of this round of adjustment.
In absolute terms, yesterday's Shanghai and Shenzhen trading volume totaled roughly 830 billion yuan, is still a low figure does not. Should know that the current market value of Hong Kong stocks with total market value of A shares generally flush, but the A shares in circulation, but the market value of about 30% of total market capitalization. In the full circulation of the Hong Kong market, 1,000 billion yuan has been considered a record-breaking turnover of actively traded, while in the circulation, but the former three percent of the market value of A-share market, only multi-billion dollar turnover been deemed to be "in quantity" , this only highlights the trading volume was more than 300 billion yuan, the market crazy speculative.
If the horizontal comparison, look back at the beginning of this year, when the A shares soared from around 1,500 points, 2,800 points in the vicinity, the average daily trading volume on the Shanghai Composite Index has more than 60 billion -800 billion for the current volume obviously can not be considered too low .
Cabinet finishing is the best trend
In the low volume of real land supply has yet to ratify before, A stock go from here? Reversal in the market can not be there under the premise of the short-term, investors apparently can only be carried out operations in accordance with the rally.
Rally, wave characteristics is a point lower than a wave. Index breakthrough June 5 low, and then new lows is not impossible. As previously mentioned paper, A shares to maintain cabinet finishing, with time for space in the index does not fall under the premise of valuation along with rising corporate profits fall is the best option. The recent financial sector heavyweights such as frequently to support the market, are also reflects the market expectation in this regard. In the box where large-scale, short-term indicators do not rule out the possibility to continue to rebound, but the ability to stand on 30 and 60-day moving average is essential.
Of course, once the market is unable to maintain the good wishes of cabinet finishing, the index fell below the low of June 5, then the investor's intention to do even worse, a new round of panic I am afraid that will once again come down.
Concerned about the stocks of the cabinet finishing
In addition to the fund investors and affect the performance of the vast majority of investors is the performance of individual stocks. In the past, market conditions, the performance of good stocks and stocks with poor performance are remarkable.
In fact, a large number of stocks plunged in the June 5 rally broader market bottomed out at the same time, simply can not get out a decent rebound. For these stocks, the non-existent box to straighten out the matter, one wave after wave of the trend is less than one theme, for these stocks, no doubt every rally is a good opportunity to lighten up.
As to date, still capable of finishing with the tape box with the maintenance of stocks, investors need to pay more cautious. The overall weakness in the market a large environment, is no guarantee that these stocks do not gradually go soft. Once the individual stocks can no longer synchronized with the market order box, then investors need to leave early as possible to avoid individual stocks appear Budie.
