Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-25
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The blue chip index can become the backbone of the top edge? Currently the market theme of irrational speculation how to for how long? Heavyweight undervalued stock bubble and subject matter, will give the market what kind of impact?
Blue chip index can become the backbone of the top edge? The current market can be irrational speculation how long? Heavyweight undervalued stock bubble and subject matter, will give the market what kind of impact?
1, against the big blue-chip index can become the backbone of the top edge?
From the present situation index rose after a row, most of the stocks have generally not low valuation of the stock market bubble has shown a structural condition. In such circumstances, the relatively low valuation of large cap heavyweight top of the broad market can become the backbone of power do?
This column that the valuation of benefits, as well as non-tradable shares two major factors lifting the ban will be known as a major factor in supporting heavyweight, heavyweight start with the fundamentals of good.
1, heavyweight undervalued
With the beginning of the year on the subject of frenzied speculation in stocks, the market's overall valuation pushed higher. In contrast, year to date has been relatively unknown heavyweight valuation but the low side. Currently Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of absolute value at this low level, is two cities, one of the cheapest stocks. From the valuation point of view, the stocks in the two cities, like the heavyweight of this dynamic in 2007 are generally lower than 20 times price-earnings ratio is also one of the plates.
It can be said has become the heavyweight valuation of the two cities with the best advantage of the plate.
2, non-tradable shares lifted to promote the development of heavyweight Quotes
This column believes that the interests of stimulating the development of the greatest heavyweight Quotes phased impetus. The size of the non-lifting of the ban and a large number of H-shares may be issued to promote an important impetus for the development of heavyweight Quotes.
Data show that the shares were lifted in May, the primacy of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, lifted a total of 1.93 billion shares. In addition, Yangtze Power, China Unicom, the Industrial Bank and other heavyweights also in the forefront. Another red-chip companies in the medium term there will be return to the climax of A shares appears. Pushing up the price of heavyweight obviously conducive to a high stage of non-tradable shareholders, as well as state-owned high-priced part of the cash distribution.
Of course, the heavyweight strength index of the top two situations may arise, one is a heavyweight up so as to promote broader market index rose; 2 in index heavyweight adjustment is not transferred, greatly slowing down the speed and magnitude of the index.
Second, to the subject matter of irrational speculation what extent it can for how long?
Secondly, the current interpretation of the theme of rampant speculation that has been a very crazy to the point. Apparent that the market has shown a continuous influx of new retail, the old shareholders and institutions are relatively hesitant situation. How can this situation for how long?
1, the market trend of irrational speculation in a thick
In the 51 long holiday the most exciting one of the domestic financial news is no doubt the oil discovery in Bohai Bay beach area of over 1 billion tons reserves of the size of a large oil field Nanpu oilfield news. After the holidays, A shares and therefore the first trading day of fuel. However, it is very puzzling, moreover, that Jidong Cement, pine construction and so can not benefit from the discovery of the stocks also suffered sharp oil speculation is equally nothing to do with this is also China's Sinopec to open more than 8 points higher.
This is clearly the market excited too far, various types of messages and themes of the hype is almost a detached but not carefully studied the heat is simply irrational.
2, the new retail market accumulation of a large number of market risk
The number of new accounts record highs at the same time also shows that a number of new individual investors is a continuous influx of new influx of individual investors are already quite crazy to the current market for fuel. The opposite is obviously prudent institutions and the old shareholders. In particular, a lot of private equity funds, have said that the current of the stock market difficult to operate.
This column that a large number of highly speculative retail money market led to serious instability in the capital structure currently on the market, these funds into the market even though it can boost the market's speculative atmosphere will steadily push the index higher, but the cumulative risk to the market to provide a larger conditions.
In fact, with the index of the more higher up, the market has become increasingly vulnerable to the bad policies reflect the more intense.
Third, pay attention to prevent structural risk
As the broader market at a relatively low position of heavyweight, and the valuations are more reasonable, so the plate may become a major force supporting the top index. From the fundamentals of perspective, this could significantly limit the speed and magnitude of the index fell. However, due to a large number of highly speculative capital to the subject crazy speculation, many of the valuation of individual stocks have been more obvious bubble, which the market is in a larger among the structural risk.
After all, investors to buy shares rather than buying the index, the market's structural adjustment (ie, a stable trend in most of heavyweight stocks fall) are still able to incur a greater loss to investors, which is now very much attention should be .
