s judge running three benchmark Money Tips

Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-01-12

After week 3, A shares the trend seems to get rid of the impact of H shares, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets can really do out of the independent Quotes? Nearly two full up, down cycle, A shares had two stages from the shackles of H shares. The first time, August 15, 2005, H-share index started to adjust from a point. The Hu Zhi in the September 20, at 1223 points ascribed to start after adjustment; the second time, May 10, 2006, H-share index touched 7462 points on adjustments after the start. Hu Zhi continued to rise to the July 5, from the 1757 points, started to adjust. Look at the previous two, H shares peaked earlier than the A shares to be more than a month, the turning point appears in the hot spots from the "28" to "82", which with the recent changes in A-share market hot spots coincide. A unit from the trend of H shares of the shackles of perspective since the short squeeze out of 1541 points, has entered a Endian Quotes.

This week, Hu Zhi boarded the 2,100-point mark, the two cities trading volume of 70 billion mark a breakthrough. On the one hand, indicating the empty side camp further fission; the other hand, also shows that differences in long-short market outlook, increased from 300,400 10 billion deal between the two cities increased more than 700 billion, indicating the market locked chips decreased. For the proliferation of hotspots, the author has some concerns. This is because the process of hindsight agencies admit the market is hot-proliferation process. Foresight of the body with the strength to push the A-share market to 2100 points. Hindsight have the strength and courage to push higher-level index; and the acceleration of closed-end funds rise, especially in the South by such high-LOF's crazy to remind you from another angle, with the broader market continue to climb to a new level, A-share market is also quietly gathered in the risk. Historical experience shows that: crazy fried funds generally appear on the stage before the end of Quotes.

As of week five, in 11 after the holiday, a total of 18 partial shares end funds issue a total of more than 80 billion yuan of funds raised. The recent A-share market volatility is precisely to these funds and other institutions in the long-term opportunity for a low Jiancang on the formation of A-share market will support. It is noteworthy that 12 months after entry, while the partial shares issued only three funds. Compared with October, November, there are 13 partial shares of funds (up to 16 hours) will also be released, at present the issue of partial stock funds rate greatly reduced. At the same time, starting in 2007 the implementation of new accounting standards, insurance and the manner in which to face the problem of clearing. When these new funds largely completed their portfolios ahead of the last follow-up of funds being able to be a big issue, which will determine the short squeeze can go far. But now residents are very keen on shareholders to subscribe for the fund, if they turned to look at the old fund purchase, and will be part of the new funds to fill the gap left by the slowdown issue.

The fear that does not mean I suddenly bearish market outlook, I remain confident in China's stock market. Draw attention to that in 2245 points to 998 points in a five-year bear market, there are 1339 points to 1748 points, 1311 points to 1649 points, 1307 points, 1783 points, the range of 30.45%, 25.78%, 36.42% of the high-level rebound. To know, even in the great bull market, there will be some lethal decline. The 998 points so far, more than 10% of the adjustment of only three times, respectively, 1223 points to 1067 points, 1695 points to 1512 points, 1757 points to 1541 points, the range of 12.75%, 10.80%, 12.29% of the adjustment. In the continuing rise in 19 months, has no time by more than 20% of the adjustment. Hu Zhi biggest increase of 116% or less always felt that "missing" something. As time goes on, from this point in time we are getting closer.

However, when the Shanghai and Shenzhen index, where point and peaked, the author also said that at present unclear. To determine whether the current round Quotes peaked, the author of three measuring stick:

1, H-share index is peaked. General H shares peaked longer than the A shares as early as one month;

2, the mentality of investors. If we also constant vigilance, vibration own run trend will continue. If Hu Zhi down 30 points, or 50 points, as we all think the adjustment is normal, pre-bearish investors have dared to undertake, then the danger may have come;

3, the amount of volume re-innovation of the day.

As long as the above-mentioned three areas does not appear, then it may be, "a red heart, two kinds of preparation", on the one hand, "a retreat into the two," the trend can also look forward to; the other hand, continue to use the ruler to determine the existence of A-share market is dangerous.