Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-09-11
National Day then to the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter of this year, Quotes, how will it go? Is it up or down? Is there a Quote? Is there a chance operation?
In any one market, will not start for no reason, nor will it end for no reason. Quotes start of any one in particular before the main force of huge amounts of capital will be ready to do some careful planning, the most important thing is to play lead and Jiancang. These well-planned preparation process, it will certainly be in the disk performance.
The author is based on this principle, summed up China's stock market since its inception 91 years a total of 14 years, the "tape around the National Day Change" and "in the fourth quarter Quotes toward" relationship was found between the two highly related to regularity.
Must first be made clear is: Any day of the broader market, is extremely difficult to predict the future market trend in a period of time. But the choice of a particular time period of the trend, it's very easy to predict the future market trend in a period of time. Because the movement of any given day, vulnerable to some outside force, or some kind of emotional impact, we must use a necessary period of time trend to the trend of the previous day full hedge.
I choose "1 day before the holiday" + "Festival for five days" as the study period. Main reasons are:
1, 1 day before the holiday fell in the fourth quarter decreased probability of 5 / 7 = 71%. Itself is not a very high probability.
2, up to 1 day before the Spring Festival, but also not easy to judge the fourth quarter of Change. Because it is often affected by the festive atmosphere, or by doing some of the main deliberately pulled high in the third quarter impact of the net assets, or by the main support the market in order to allow people to have a good section of the impact of rising emotion often occurs.
3, I choose postganglionic 5 days (just one full weeks time), is to make the Festival have enough time to hedge the emotional pre-holiday 1 day up so that we can very accurately determine potential running after tape trend.
Let us look at China's National Day over the years before and after the stock market trend and move toward the fourth quarter, the relationship between the Quote:
Years before the Spring Festival Festival cumulative actual trend of the four seasons in the fourth quarter were 1 day 5 days Change Change
91-1 +9 +8 +62% to continue the bull market
92-8-42-50 +11% -42% continue to fall, early in December the beginning of the outbreak of 93 major Quotes
93 +4 -16-12-6% down Powei innovation and -11% in January after the mid-bounce, but still closed down in the fourth quarter
94 -48-86-104-18% 5 months-long decline in adjusted
95 +11 -14-3-23% to the bottom of the oscillation, and a half months after the peak, 1 month after Powei deep rate fell
96 +21 -1 +20 +5% continue to speed up large cattle, the biggest gain +44%, by the end of a commentator's article fell
97 +13 +33 +46 +9% short-term rebound in the fourth quarter, the big shocks, but still close up
98 +11 -6 +5 -8% to a median oscillation higher, 1.5 months after the peak, mid-December and then fell
99-14-62-76-13% speed down Powei to start mid-level adjustment
00 +21 +8 +29 +9% started secondary rebound Innovation Quotes
01 -0.1 -73-73-7% decline following the acceleration, the latter a policy favorable (Suspension reduction) while the oscillation in February, fell further after the
02-6-50-56-14% oscillations continue after a mid-month decline
03 +12 +21 +33 +10% oscillation and the record low of 1.5 months later (-4.4%), the outbreak of 11.19 Great Quotes
04-23-64-88-9% drop oscillation to continue to mid-fall
A total of 3 1 [2] [3]
