Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-10-17
Source: Western Daily Peng Song
This week's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets can be described as soul-stirring, to benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, for example, Tuesday and are still struggling for the stock will break through 3,000 points, while the glad when Wednesday worsened, and plunged 144 points Friday to continue to Powei indexes down, dropped by another 112 points, 3 days, quickly slid 300 points, which are rarely seen in history, investors and even more miserable loss.
But the careful reader should remember that, last weekend we have clearly stated in the securities weekly, significantly greater than the risk of stock market returns suggest that you be cautious, while the market's movements this week, unfortunately we have made, I believe that weekly in accordance with our the operation of selling shareholders have fortunately dodged a bullet.
This week, shareholders of the situation, the pre-holiday tape its future, how investors respond to the sudden collapse, we offer you 11 years.
Similarly, the Christian Democratic bullish investors have a sense of risk
The new investors Buffett Investment Principles "failure"
Mr. Yoo who lives in the railway station in October last year, began to enter the market, invested over 100,000 yuan to buy a China Merchants Bank, Vanke A, Baosteel, China Minsheng Banking and many other stocks are Buffett's investment in accordance with the principles of investment: purchase high-quality industry leading enterprise stocks, long-term holding. He claimed to "consciousness" of late, the market too late, is eat the "cane" in the tail. Ever think he has encountered the most magnificent of this wave of stock market, just three months, he was nearly 50% of the yield, performance has not inferior to stock funds. Increase in the stock market almost every day, so that he produced an illusion: The stock market rose is normal and does not rise is not normal.
While the "bubble", "risk" is said to have emerged a number of days, he still did not mind too much. January 29 that day, he expects this may be the top stage, and to sell the stock or not to sell? Two voices in the struggle in his heart for a long time and finally got the upper hand Buffett's philosophy: do not sell! The results of a two-day stock market is dropping, and his loss of earnings 20%. Yesterday, made his earnings dropped more drastically reduced, so fierce that he has not experienced a decline, and now he has a little puzzled: if the stock market began its free fall so, is it futile?
Mr. Yoo, albeit depressed, but still convinced himself ready to withstand fell by twenty or thirty, sideways test four or five months. He said, "This test is also of wealth."
Bull did not forget the old shareholders bear the road
Railway Administration Chu, Zuo Gupiao has been eight years, and in May last year, bought a China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank stock, while the determination not to touch the real estate stocks. This is his economics teacher told him. He and Mr. Yoo differences occurred, for two bets: December 1 last year as a starting point, successive holders of more than three months, compared to the March 1 and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank China Vanke A shares to which two or more, Who loses who pays dinners.
This gamble is doomed to no avail: In mid-January of this year, the state announced the news of the capital gains tax levied. January 23, Mr. Zhu all clearance, off the bag for security. Despite the broad market was close to 3000 points, has not shaken his faith.
Why did not re-enter the market? He said that by comparing the U.S. stock market, China's Hong Kong stock market, A-share market price-earnings ratio has been too high and should be avoided.
Yesterday, he called Mr. Yoo, smiling to ask: "Man, how like now?" Schadenfreude is the state of completion. Mr Liu a bit angry and asked: "Do you still do not enter the market of the market?" Mr. Zhu said: "in no hurry no hurry, and so dropped by another one fell on my chance to enter the market." He predicted that China Merchants Bank to fell to 15 yuan less, then just for Jiancang.
The new Christian Democratic begun to taste the bitter fruit of the stock market
Throughout the year last year, benefiting from the stock market's hot, the fund net appeared impressive rapid growth. With the spread of effect to make money, investment funds have become a hot topic around town, a time of bank deposits, pawn loans, and even real estate loans have flooded into the capital market, formed a fund craze, the market risk has long been left behind .
Stock market has dropped sharply this week, investment funds could not escape, this reporter has done a statistics, as of yesterday, the net value of securities investment funds also appeared to decline significantly, with an average drop of more than 10%, even up to more than 20%, volatility surprising extent of its decline over the same period of the Shanghai Composite fell, so a lot of the initial investment fund of the "base people" understand the stock market risk.
î‚?the face of the stock market dropped sharply this week, the market reached a crossroads, and how to deal with pre-holiday market, analysts and researchers, journalists, interviews were conducted, comprehensive point of view, is basically the market outlook is expected to favor cautious, conservative operating strategy, investment combination of stress defense.
Afternoon forecast: cautious optimism bias tape before the holiday
Hai Tong Securities the one hand, ample liquidity in the market a further push the driving force; the other hand, the high valuation of the overall market, as well as management control is expected to lead to lack of investor confidence, short-term constraints do more enthusiasm. Overall, the short term, the lack of preganglionic Quotes trend to do more power, greater upward pressure on market trends likely to wide shocks to digest the policy aspect, as well as the valuation of the negative pressure, amplitude of about 10% to 15% in 2500 points ~ 2600 points, there should be a strong support.
Guotai Junan Securities A-share market price-earnings ratio valuation is no longer significant appeal. Institutional investors began to appear in the incremental capital limited circumstances, A valuation of stocks as a whole further development of space power will decline, manifested in high-priced stocks to be relatively stable in operation. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a record high before the holiday continued to decrease in power, 3000 point location is likely that Shanghai Composite high stage. In the position adjustment pressures mainly come from the financial side factors. Based on the relatively optimistic about the fundamentals, preganglionic A-share market will start a pattern of structural adjustment of the high shock.
Operation strategy: control of holdings of overvalued stocks position
Shenyin Institute margin of 15% when the market declines, investors can purchase profit forecast steady and rapid growth, attractive valuation to re-stock banks, consumer goods, as well as feedback from a very good short-term profit car share. At the same time, forward-looking concern about power and IT stocks.
Hai Tong Securities in the broader market shock process, pay attention to controlling position, lock income, reducing the short-term or large, the lack of advantage of the valuation stocks; If a large sharp shock to the cabinet floor, you can increase the position, select the companies have a certain margin of safety and can be a good bargain-hunting fundamentals holdings in 2007 the high-growth stocks.
Hualong Securities Institute of clear policy direction with the industry, as well as the traditional Chinese Spring Festival, driven by consumer sentiment, to benefit the industry and individual stocks (mainly concentrated in the consumer sector) will be pre-holiday as an investment hot spot. Such as catering tourism, drinks and retail industries. At the same time to the transport industry is also proposed to increase the categories configuration ratio, such as aviation, highway and other non-cyclical steady growth in the industry. Also suggested that concern about the rising prices of agricultural products affected by the impact of an increased spring caused a positive growth trend in agricultural goods, benefiting industry, mainly seeds, fertilizers, and other industries.
Portfolio: Key overweight defensive varieties
Shenyin Research Institute Annual Report preganglionic's stock-picking ideas aimed at pre-increase, high-Dividend Information expected, the low valuation and potential assets, and so low. Key recommendation Yangtze Power, Xishan Coal and Electricity, Vivi shares, Coconut, Hainan Island, Jianfa shares, Jinling Pharmaceutical, Yingkou port, on the real medicine, Qingdao soft control.
GF Securities to pursue a higher margin of safety portfolio bullish due to positive changes in the structure of corporate income arising from revaluation of Baosteel, China set, Cangzhou Dahua; promising favorable trend of the industry concentration of dominant enterprises, such as China Merchants Bank, Guangdong Ship International; also sees to master the core technology growth companies, such as the Tonghua Dongbao; industry environment warms up for Luan ring energies.
