Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-27
Source: Beijing in the first place
Under the influence of multiple factors, most investors adopted a wait and see strategy, up and down a dilemma today, Hu Zhi overall trend showed shocks and no trend of development, the top of the 60-day moving average at 3,900 points and put pressure on the bottom 5 and 10-day moving average has good support, which will eventually close a small Yang Xian, while turnover volume rapid shrinking Huzhi only amount to 63 billion yuan or so, since February 5 hit its lowest level since in general to , the current market is an up and down the state space will not be great, the differences reflected in the volatility of long-short space narrowing, for the afternoon, we believe that if the volume still can not be effectively larger, then it is unrealistic to expect the market to continue upward, the can only be down to continue to seek support, but also in the withering of the environment, opportunities for individual stocks as well as the operability will be greatly reduced, and as investors, watching waiting for the clear trend is the best operation strategy.
Focus 1: to see whether the amount of land has become a key medium-term adjustment of the end.
The greatest feature of the market today is the volume shrinkage of the February 5 hit its lowest level since only 63.6 billion yuan, which is easily pre-single-day multi-billion dollar world of difference between the amount of form, and we know that last Wednesday Hu Zhi created a phased manner, after the amount of 73 billion yuan, it soon rebound pattern of rapid rise, then the mean volume of today's land market has once again proven the market at the bottom of it? Does that mean the end of the medium-term adjustment? In our view, although there is to see the amount of land that is possible, but for the market outlook of the stock market investors can not be too optimistic, because he saw land prices rise that followed must be a sustained process of heavy volume, in order to ensure the healthy development of Quotes is also in order to verify the emergence of land, while in the current overall environment, the volume is difficult to continuously enlarge This is because, at present from the early heavy volume of time not long enough yet to completely digest heavy volume early in the process of floating chips Moreover, under a huge demand for capital in the market for six months, large capitalization stocks issued tightening expectations, the size of non-listing, to bring the role of tax increase, etc., have limited confidence in incremental funding on a sustainable approach, therefore, we believe that after the land supply there is land supply, that is, at present 63 billion yuan can be seen as land supply, but there might again refresh in afternoon traffic levels.
Focus 2: Indicator Unit of the sustainability of upside, decided to continue to rise in space and time.
Despite the recent significant reduction in degree of active stocks, but the market did not appear vulnerable, which is to promote the main index gained momentum from the weight of index stocks, representative of a typical performance of financial stocks is to increase substantially beyond market expectations, banking, securities and insurance companies have announced a substantial increase in daily news bulletins, many of the performance of individual stocks is expected to grow significantly, and far more than the market pre-sub-level of analysis, such as the emergence of Hongyuan Securities net profit growth rate of 2200 percent, China Merchants Bank appears over 100% growth in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 50% or more, Yangtze Power Yejiyuzeng recently also issued a notice of 50% of such units are the A-share market weight species, a substantial increase in performance against the backdrop of , this part does not appear significant drop in stocks, which determines the recent A-share market dropped significantly difficult. But for this part of the heavyweights speaking, determines the sustainability of the strong rise in the index space and duration, we believe that, while the medium and long term, this part of the performance of individual stocks still have good growth, but rapid growth, in the current phase, continued to rise is not realistic, market outlook is still repeated.
Focus 3: oversold stocks sustainability of compensatory growth, depending on whether the incremental funding approach.
Today most stocks rose in both, the company received more than 110 red, at the same time limit-the number of individual stocks has increased, but did not the mainstream of hot spots, there is no plate effect, there is no money effect, only a handful of heavyweight support for the stock market's rise, it can be said , the active degree of stocks has been greatly reduced, the strong individual stocks is also no continuity, therefore, for oversold stocks rise, we believe, must also look at the larger volume of cases, only the confidence of investors avoided, incremental re-admitted , this part of individual stocks will have good continuity, so the whole, not many opportunities for individual stocks, low operational value, so investors can continue to wait and see strategy, waiting for a clear trend.
