Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-07
U.S. interest rates, Lun Duntong up, Brent oil prices in New York, Europe and the United States stocks as well. The reason is a statement that a sentence less. The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee's statement after the rate hike, and in May compared with a less - "To make the risk of inflation under control, there may still be necessary to further tighten monetary policy." Market According to this deletion move, saying that "the wording did not expect tough," to determine the pace of rate hikes coming to an end. They talk about the end of June we added after the addition of not one moment that by the end of June early August after completing plus must add, with regard to interest rate expectations survey figures, but also 80% today, tomorrow, 30%, as did not fly the same as the first change. However, this is no justification for blind change, but it can produce a significant impact on the market. To continue to raise interest rates unexpectedly high in the fall and continue to raise interest rates expected to be low, it rose. Market from this does not make sense about the reasons for which, though ridiculous, but it must face.
Read one more blond hair and the Guangdong Science and Technology Yung-tai article, but also lead to "qualitatively" the feelings, with the principal investigator of electrical equipment sharing a moment, many of my colleagues joined the discussion was very lively. Blonde and Yung-tai is a small sub-industry leader, are good company, the business model are similar to master the core technologies on their own parameters of the production of intermediate raw material profit, but a continued pursuit by the agency, one has been cold, recent market have some concerns. The reason for the difference is that "qualitative" difference: an industry in a large space, high management standards, reflected in the growth of net profit growth is good, so is the long-term investment of the core species, an industry space is small, low management level, reflected in the net increase growth in general, but the performance of the project put into kinetic energy, it has only just before the projects are put into short-term opportunities created cause for concern. Another example is the health benefits technology and Zhong Ke San Huan. I like the health benefits, fat like the ring. Fat chance that the nature of three-ring with health benefits is not a grade, the former is an explosive emergence of new application areas, it should be long-term holding, which is the industry cycle, only band operation.
There are three companies, this year's earnings per share were four hair, next year all six hair. The 50% growth, the nature of, in the investment prior to figure out: It is the project put into production capacity brought about by the expansion of sales, or the industry boom brought about by higher product prices, or the company's unshakeable position of competitive advantage and industry brought about by sustained margin improvement? Similarly, 50% growth, the first is short-term opportunities, the second is the center line opportunities, the third is long-term opportunities.
Many researchers considered only hard at the performance numbers, do not see a major trend, it was impossible to conduct "qualitative." Moreover, because the understanding of the industry trend is not in place, calculated figures are subject to very large deviation, a mistake that is a big mistake. In a thorough understanding of the industry, based on the grasp of the big trends, the company has a right "qualitative", even if the performance forecast and the actual figures differ slightly, but the changes in the same direction will not be a big mistake.
There are many stories on the market, military stories, new energy story, the story of Binhai New Area, domestic demand growth story, the story industrial transfer wares. What is the story finished pulled down a couple of years everyone will forget that the stock returned to the starting point; what the story will gradually become a reality, a year or two after the company reported that out of the performance of concrete, supporting the high-flying stock price, but also and "qualitative" relevant. When the calculation results for the next few years, there are too many assumptions, your characterization is correct now decide whether your hypothesis to be verified in the future. Soros debut at the beginning to buy banking stocks, Rogers in 2002 to buy commodities, Buffett bought PetroChina in 2003, are "qualitative" a manifestation of power.
Noisy half-day, come to the conclusion is still a cliché: from "qualitative" decision big investment direction, by the "quantitative" decide on the specific tactical operations.
