Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-10-26
With regard to commodity markets, and now a great big paydays are divided. Buffett and Soros said that there bubble, Rogers said that cattle can continue for many years. Now, there are a Wanji character joined the big controversy. Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach believes that started in 2002 by the economic rebound, the world's average annual economic growth rate of 4.2%, lower than the previous four times a warmer period, the average growth rate of 4.4%, but this time commodity price increases is much larger than the previous four. Roach said that "the momentum of global economic growth, a slight improvement in the situation, a low inflation world has gone through modern history's most rapid rise in commodity prices, if it is not a bubble, I do not know what to say get on." In Roach seems that the era of globalization of Chinese demand, and the new economic era of accelerated growth in the U.S. economy is always the same, is an unsustainable, and plausible story. So he made the assertion: It is now the commodity market has entered a "prices, by themselves become the driving force to promote further up" phase, the duration of the bubble may be longer than we imagined - Speculative bubbles are usually so, but history will tell us that it will How to end. CANNES, France are the people looking up, saying that the very sensible, which could suffer as a result those of us small investors, what should listen to whom? To follow the majority or the minority? Rogers bullish commodity for a long time, 04 years, China has strongly advocated a speech on, built in 2002 earned position as early as pours, and the old bar and the old cable while not good products, but still very powerful grasp of the macro, and Roach theorists are outsiders, and perhaps more sober, but, may also be too early to predict. Weigh a bit, his timid, or pressure the majority on this side of having peace of mind more.
The coffee time and discussion with colleagues in different sectors of what kind of price-earnings ratio to the balance right, what kind of company considered good company. Before the coffee cools, the conclusion is: the industry's price-earnings ratio suitable or not, mainly depends on the static price-earnings ratio compared with the expected growth rate, that is PEG. For example, in order to measure performance of the industry in 2005 was 10 times the static PE, if the industry growth rate in 2006 is expected to below 10%, 10 times more on the not cheap, such as iron and steel such as motor vehicles; if the static PE is 100 times more, I expect the growth rate was 100%, then 100 times on here are not expensive, such as brokerage stocks, such as partial recovery in technology stocks. What kind of company is a good company? To put it simply, that is, competition in the market dominance to build a sustainable company. Tracking operational data and industry dynamics, belonging to the tactical level of the routine technical work, so Gan Huo children often lag behind the market, only in the stock price reflect the company's fundamentals improve, can understand why it rose only difficult to dig out the real advance good company. The core of good company is its management team and competitive strategy. Nengkanmingbai a company's advantage and the sustainability of this advantage, is right have a better understanding of the company. As a measure of our investment portfolio, found that some species do not find out and need to be filtered.
Boss asked everyone's opinions on the current market, the attitude of the. A colleague said to be "defensive" to buy defensive stocks, were the Boss laughed at something and say "are not optimistic about the Do not buy stocks, how about defense count?" To listen to the Boss That is to say that he had originally intended to follow the "defensive", and quickly adjust the aperture, said, "positions contraction, the stock attack", meaning that the overall position down, buy some of the offensive stocks. Boss laughs again, like those studies that report said, is "cautiously optimistic", "active defense", so all OK, right or wrong Jie Ke, big slick. Talk about it, nor to set a tone.
Qian Liu on stocks in shock, lowering the volume of a level. Hope that "5.16" That total amount of nearly 90 billion, not the amount of days.
