Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-15
â—?A-share market and developed the fundamental motivation is to serve state-owned enterprise reform, resolving banking risks, the consequences of its loss of function of market origin. Replaced by stock investors on behalf of institutional change and the rising culture will fundamentally the end of which has always been known as the "rent-seeking games," "Casino," the old market system, China's capital market will enter into a new phase of content development. This indicates that, experienced a four and a half painful adjustments and institutional changes in the baptism of the capital markets, will usher in a fundamental from the defensive to the offensive turn
â—?turn the leading causes of macroeconomic growth, the listed company profits continue to increase in the level of A-share market value falling by the formation of a departure from the A-share market clear depressions effect. More directly from a good system because of changes in: (1) The split share structure reform, the overall situation is expected this year will be set for a long time troubled market system will be completely freed of the shackles, A-share market risk premium is greatly reduced; (2) to further improve the supervision system, will effectively reduce the level of market risk premium; (3) amended the "Company Law" and "Securities Law" to adapt to the voice of the times and demand is the fundamental guarantee for the future development of the market; (4) the comprehensive management of securities companies deepening the securities market has been the leading force in the gradual coming back to life
â—?attractive valuations, the market risk premium is lower internal rate of return the market to improve from the defensive to the offensive of the necessary guarantees; and promote the appreciation of the renminbi will become a strong market continued to take a good macro background; in the above-mentioned factors of working together, turning an important market characteristics during the show is this: the continued active outside the capital market
â—?A-share market over the past 15 years of development history shows that investment in the theme of constant change implies a clue - closely follow the changes in industrial structure. Following this idea, we have proposed a transition period of some investment clues:
1. Military: with a technical advantage of special equipment manufacturing military enterprises
2. The new countryside: rural infrastructure and rural beneficiaries of production of consumer goods
3. The beneficiaries of international industrial transfer
4. Independent innovation: the new accounting standards of preferential policies and R & D companies to bring good
5. Industry mergers: horizontal mergers and vertical integration, high-quality growth story of the leading mergers and acquisitions
6. State-owned enterprise reform: a substantial improvement of the efficiency of asset management, management's assessment of the company's incentive to do bit
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A major turning point in the context of investment leads
Given our optimism for the market as a whole, according to institutional investors to optimize the layout of the principle of combination of "Eleventh Five-Year" plan and in 2006 the main spirit of the government work report, we propose the following investment leads, they are expected to become even more in 2006 the time of investment topics: military, new countryside, new energy, innovation and industry benefit from the transfer of enterprises, the reform of state-owned enterprises through mergers and acquisitions, and significantly improved business fundamentals.
1, and war: with the technological superiority of the special equipment manufacturing military enterprises
From the late 90s, China's guiding ideology of the military there have been significant changes in national defense from the "subordinate to and serve the economic construction," into an "important strategic task," China's military has entered a period of rapid growth. "2006 Government Work Report" that read: "strengthening national defense and army building is an important strategy for socialist modernization task" than "2005 Government Work Report" in "strengthening national defense and army building is China's modernization strategy tasks, "has obviously strengthened. State Council of the NPC for examination and approval of the 2006 defense budget is 2838 billion yuan, about 35.1 billion U.S. dollars, the number of budget performance over the previous year increased by 14.7% in 2006 budget, defense expenditures account for expenditures of the national budget of 7.4%. Is expected until at least 2008, China's military spending will continue to maintain a rapid growth momentum. After 2008, due to China's sustained economic development and military modernization, long-term task, and without significant unexpected impact of the incident, China's military spending will also remain higher than the economic growth.
Compared with foreign military industrial enterprises, the domestic military background of listed companies in the business scale, the gap between total assets and so huge, in the product of independent development and manufacturing capacity of the weak links, while the lack of the ability to expand through acquisitions.
However, we believe that in our country's military guiding ideology and military spending there is a major turning point in the context of expanding China's military industrial complex, from the point of view, will draw on the successful defense of foreign development experiences, so that military industrial complex, the actual performance from the system to a new place turning point. The current domestic military and civilian technology development separated the civilian and military products for the low level of such enterprises to create a huge market space; and post-IPO financing channels for the expansion will effectively enhance the military-industrial technology development and manufacturing capabilities, and to promote the original there are military operations continued to grow; the same time, through mergers and acquisitions take Extensional growth path will contribute to long-term growth of enterprises. With the technological superiority of the special equipment manufacturing turning point in the defense industry enterprises will be in the capital market reaction.
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