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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: China Securities patriotic letter to Securities and assistant to the president and general manager of Development Headquarters, Dr. He Chengying
Interpretation of China's stock market needs of today's non-linear thinking. In the traditional linear mode of thinking, from the real economy to a virtual economy mechanism of action is quite certain, but a one-way feedback. However, its limitation is that the main factors affecting the stock market operation attributed to macro-economic, ignoring other factors, especially the impact of the system. With the globalization of the economy, stock market volatility does not simply reflect a country's macro-economic changes, which leads to index changes and the relationship between economic performance tend to loose, and even depart from.
From the linear thinking of the point of view, economic fluctuations, "should be" early-warning changes in the stock market. However, whether in mature markets to emerging markets or the examination of the stock market and business cycle fluctuations are not strictly correspond. Even in the developed market economy, the United States, macroeconomic performance over the past 70 years, 1 / 3 of the time and stock market volatility is a departure from the. On emerging markets, especially in the transition economies of the study is disappointing. China's experience has also corroborated this point, since 2000, China's stock market and macroeconomic volatility in the relationship between the show a limited degree of correlation.
Of course, this is not to deny the value of the linear way of thinking. In contrast, in a long time of thinking inside the stock market will continue to be the more theoretical analysis of the basic approach. There are two points need to explain: First of all, based on the conduct of macroeconomic behavior prediction market's expectations are not necessarily reliable; Secondly, the linear way of thinking for empirical analysis of L-band, non-linear way of thinking for a short period of empirical analysis . Therefore, we must focus on contingency factors.
For the current China's stock market, the valuation and the system of these two "non-economic factors" will gradually exceed the performance of the pressure, while a number of major "accidental" events were taking place, such as the yuan appreciation, new from the old, etc., slightly optimistic sentiment, the growth and value of the company's valuation bubble in the valuation of companies at the same time the amendment is expected to co-exist.
After seven years of China's stock market downturn, and its negative energy is almost exhausted. The stock market's long-term sustained economic downturn and entities that run counter to the strange phenomenon of rapid growth difficult to sustain. After years of stock market volatility, the real value of the stock listed companies and stock prices have been relatively close, the stock market are basically back to the starting point, and thus the risk of buying shares have been greatly reduced. At present, China's listed companies are mainly state-owned enterprises, due to the deepening of the reform of state-owned enterprises continued to the people's livelihood industries such as electricity, petroleum, transportation and other major infrastructure, industry concentration, its market performance is relatively stable. At the same time a large number of dynamic and innovative mechanisms for other types of profit-making enterprises, including private enterprises, etc. listed, not only was good, in fact, also part of the stock market, investors have tasted the sweetness of a significant impulse to stimulate investors to enter the market.
China's stock market rising again, but China's economic development to a new stage another sign. After more than 20 years of reform and opening up, China's rapid economic development entities, not only occupy China's main market, but also occupy a large market in the world; future expansion space for the real economy will be greatly limited, therefore, in the virtual economy to expand It is an indispensable part of China's economy by the way; In fact, the virtual economy and real economy is the proportion of the size of the economy modernized logo. In the United States and in Europe and the United States developed countries, the total amount of virtual economy is several times the real economy and even a few times. In China, the virtual economy is also part of just growing.
China's economy for many years due to the rapid development of China's capital adequacy has reached an unprecedented high volume of China's economy is facing a potential economic overheating and inflation, the hidden dangers. Therefore, China's stock market rise in the new situation, both for the interests of capital continue to seek a way out, but also for the remaining reservoir of capital to find, for stabilizing the economy can play a double-edged sword effect.
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Currently the RMB's appreciation in the currency like the yen and the Taiwan dollar appreciation of the end of the first phase of the beginning of the second phase. In the process of appreciation of the yen, the Nikkei index from the point of view, the stock market from the start to the final end, and continued for 17 years (1971-1989 years), or up to 19 times, and in the end of 1989, the Nikkei hit a 38,957.44 point of all-time high. The Nikkei index in appreciation of the yen in three stages, the cumulative gain of 128.48 percent, respectively, 204.53% and 197.09%, with an annual increase of 42.83%, respectively, 17.04% and 49.27%.
And similar to Japan, China's Taiwan in the 20th century, 80 years also affected by the appreciation of their currencies to the U.S. demand pressures. 1983-1992 years, the sharp appreciation of the NT dollar to promote Taiwan's stock market entered a period of seven-year bull market. In the NT dollar to appreciate the process, Taiwan's weighted stock price index in July 1985 of 600 points, a gradual increase in September 1986 up to 2505 points, to October 1, 1987 up to 4600 points, September 26, 1988 up to 8870 points, and in June 24, 1989 break 10000 points mark, February 1, 1990, rose to a record high of 13608 points, or up to 17.84 times.
July 21, 2005, the RMB exchange rate promoted to 8.11, the same day as the Shanghai Composite Index 1020.63 points, May 15, 2006, the RMB-breaking 8 (7.9982), the appreciation of 1.3%, the same day as the Shanghai Composite Index 1664.09 points, in accordance with 4.89 of the extrapolation of elastic (China's Taiwan Province, the second phase of an initial period of the NT dollar appreciated 4.89), the exchange rate appreciation resulting indices of about 65 points, split share structure and other factors have led to the value of the index was up about 643 points, the ratio between the two is about 1:10. Therefore, if the RMB exchange rate this year, 8.11 last year, up 4% of the base, then push the Shanghai composite index rose 200 points, plus-tradable shares, and other factors on the index, promotion, the Shanghai index up to 2200 points.
With a falling dollar and capital account opening pressure, the yuan appreciation is expected to make China's stock market has seemed to become an ideal Nuggets paradise. Lured by the appreciation of the expected, QFII quota wading enthusiastic about applying for the Chinese stock market. We have reason to believe that the expected appreciation of the Chinese stock market is expected to be repeated the next 80 years in Japan, Taiwan's prosperity. If the yuan appreciated 20 percent is estimated that China's yuan revaluation lasted approximately 6 years or so, during which there will be five years or so the bull market appreciation of the yuan will reach about 18% of the index is high. The stock market is still bullish restorative Quotes index without saying that high, reaching a record high after China's stock market into a healthy, steady, Man Niu rising channel. It is foreseeable that the bull market really can not imagine a high-cycle will appear in 2008, and extended to 2010.
It can be predicted, along with the stock reform basically completed, and full circulation issued a smooth landing, as well as fiscal reforms, income tax rates and other tax adjustments breakthrough in China's stock market uncertainty will gradually become clear, combined with the split share structure reform has improved valuation of A shares, the exchange rate mechanism and the stock market have been gradually improved, a revaluation of the yuan-denominated value of the assets is bound to wake up in the stock market investors, the RMB exchange rate adjustment in the stock market and long-term trend would constitute a supporting role, its intensity will be far greater than the economic growth in the stock market support. Therefore, the Chinese stock market is climbing an usher in a new cycle, the overall rising trend is well established.
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