Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-09-03
Source: Xu-Yang Luo West China Securities
In China Vanke, the Shanghai Airport and other indicators of struggling to support the market shares, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded the second consecutive day, which led Shenzhen continue to play a role, indicating the mainstream funding to continue raised the index determination. However, turnover of 56.8 billion respectively, the two cities the morning, afternoon, only 104.9 billion and 42.2 billion, 72 billion turnover point of view, a rebound follow-up fatigue. We expect the market plunge again slowly up V-reversal, but there can not be ignored in June the three pressures.
Looking forward to V-type inversion
One characteristic of a bull market is plunging slowly up, whether it is early in June 2006 the first plunge adjustment or the end of January 2007 to adjust the second plunge, followed by Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are Manniu climbed, breaking the previous plunge short-term head. The main purpose of doing so is to allow investors to see a steep decline is not terrible, the market still has the power breakthrough in the last bull head. In a breakthrough after the second bottom was quietly launched. Therefore, the bull market appeared plunge, we are not normally look forward to the second bottom, but Manniu its own run-record highs. Then, by the end of May 2007 the third plunge adjustment will not appear it can not be V-reversal?
Shenzhen and Shanghai stock index above 5-day moving average at the same time pressure is the first step out of Manniu own run. Although the above 5-day moving average Wednesday Shenzhengchengzhi pressure, but the Shanghai Composite Index as well as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index is still below the 5 days moving average, this and the last two while the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock index above 5-day moving average pressures vary. The main reason of the existence of differences between the two cities from the blue chip index stocks, including the Shenzhen City, China Vanke, ZTE, the U.S. electrical appliances such as a second-tier blue-chip index pulled the initiative, while the Shanghai stock market, China Petrochemical, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and other front-line blue chips do anything, only a second-line blue chips Shanghai Airport, Youngor such a little "aggressive." Perhaps the main continue to use the Shenzhen market, led the Shanghai stock market compensatory growth of the operation strategy, but failed to catch the two cities was above 5-day moving average, which is expected to bring V-reverse the trend of the shadow. However, once the petrochemical, banking and brokerage stocks to start again, then the V-establishment of a greater chance of reversal. After all, the index stocks can play a leading role in sustainable upside, then the other sections or oversold stocks have followed the rebound effect.
June has three pressure
Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets in June there will face three major V-reversal pressure. A history at the top of the law. Since 1996, a bull market since its launch in June each year appear at the top of the probability of increased continuously. Since 1997, 10 years inside, including 97 years in May, 98 June, 99 June, in June 2001 and the 2002 6.24,2006 years in June, a total of six times the opportunity to appear in the June mid-term or short-term the head, which peaked the day usually occurs in a bull market trend, we see that the bull market in June to become the true nature of Terminator. Second, policy control pressure. Increase the stamp duty will be subject shares, garbage stocks isosceles chopped, it does not mean the city of See also reproduction of the policy, but the market such as the main retail investors, while retail investors such policies are usually very sensitive to the final result have implications for help or to enlarge effect. Therefore, even if the policy of some bearish on the stock market has little impact on long-term bullish but short-term adjustment is inevitable. People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the recent hike in May or not, as the CPI, but pork prices will drive the cooking oil, eggs and other prices, May's CPI will be higher than the historical average chain, plus the pressure on interest rates up again, or the abolition of interest rate hikes before tax. These policies do not create a real pressure on the stock market, but the inevitable short-term pressures. Third, two quarterly growth rate or reduced. A quarter of high growth performance of listed companies, but in the policies that control measures continued after the introduction of a slight increase in the cost of business, profitability, growth or decline, but the overall growth trends remain unchanged. However, the overall price gains so far this year has been much greater than the growth rate of the performance of different company's shares began for structural adjustment, then the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, or continue to face periodic price adjustments.
Overall, according to the bull market trend, we continue to expect the market V-reversal of the trend, but slightly larger in view of systemic risk in June, there will be Xiangxingzhengli the on and off the city should adopt a high throw speculation bargain-hunting tactics , or long-term holders of financial, real estate stocks.
