Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-01
Source: Lai Xu broadcast Securities Times
The continuing rise in the past two weeks time, so that Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market "Strings" anomalies taut, tension in the market last week after four of the slump has eased. Friday tape retaliatory rebound, off a whole line is almost a rare individual stocks, stock index remains a good upward trend. After heavy rain the broader market showed renewed signs of madness, however, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in history in May of each odd-numbered year the broader market, without exception, there is a major turning point, this year, be an exception?
The economic data released Thursday basically in line with market expectations, the investment community is widely expected the central bank will raise interest rates again in the second quarter, but the basic digest Thursday's crash is expected this bad. View of this writer, from a technical perspective, the broader market this week's shock entirely by technical "current price resonance" caused.
"Current price resonance" trigger adjustment
From the index point of view, this week, Shen Chengzhi, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of the highest point (respectively, 10445 points and 3311 points) just in its 2005 set at the bottom of the historic points (respectively, 2590 points and 807 points) 4 times the location of on. In addition, the Shanghai index this week, the highest point of 3623 is an important point in the index point, 3600 is a 360-degree circle 10 times. Thus, this week's extreme volatility, I think it is mainly the internal laws of the market that "current price resonance" caused. Despite this week, there had been "current price resonance", but the lower level of resonance and does not rule out Thursday's sharp shock has been absorbed. From Friday over 100 individual stocks intraday limit-board market conditions, in recent months a new generation coming of millions of shareholders of the almost frenzied enthusiasm for investing in has not been extinguished by Thursday's sharp shock. If the broader market continues to rise, then this week's sharp shock from a wave-shaped point of view, the preferred medium-sized class (5) waves in the small four waves and small waves 4 to 5 after the shock wave be ascribed to pre-holiday after the deduction would be 51 The wave of "Final Fantasy."
Peaked in May have to follow the history of
Aside from early February of this year so far since this bull market in the first round of Shenglang â‘?are big waves in subsection (5), wave, or I belong to the first cycle of the first â‘?waves waves in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market a decade since the period of time laws must draw investors attention. Since 1991, the annual odd years, the Shanghai index has shown a significant turning point, and most belong to the top of a turning point, individual year such as 2001, 2003, 2005 high point of deviation from a month, but the index points are deviated from the little. Even the even number year, 1992, 1998, 2002 and 2004, also in May plus or minus 1 month within the framework of an important turning point occurred. This rule can simply be understood as: The second quarter is customary in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets major turning point in the quarter, if the previous trend of decline before and after bottoming out in May; if the previous rising trend before and after the peak in May.
Clearly, the current market disk features also show in May of this year in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets around the top there is a major probability of significant.
From a technical feature perspective, the current trend of the most powerful deep KLCI will face in the 1080-point connection at the top of the history of three important pressure on the line several important indexes weeks 14 weeks RSI is still showing a clear divergence top shape, Since early February the wave form is clearly medium-sized class (5) waves, these technical features are possible within the next few weeks in May as a whole an important window of time to form a resonant triggering a broader market appeared intermediate or higher levels of adjustment.
The last straw
Fundamentals and policy aspect, it might lead to broader market appears to adjust the negative mid-level main factors are: 1, the introduction of stock index futures; 2, the size of the non-lifting of the ban peak; 3, issue expansion speed; 4, the management of various forms of control; 5, the changes in the dollar decline and so on.
Is every indication that the market is entering a stage of frenzied speculation, the top stage is likely to occur within the next few weeks. 51 Festival Week 1 is the deep Composite Index since the end of 2005, the Ministry of the first 90 weeks, is the most worthy of attention within a short time window. As the renowned scientist Newton said: We can accurately measure the specific location of stars and run track, but we can not estimate the madness of human nature. In the frenzied atmosphere of the market, investors should maintain the necessary clear-headed, alert the law triggered a historic turning point in May after mad a "a messy."
