Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-07-25
People know that the advantages of institutional investors is a professional depth of information in advance, and financial scale. Therefore, they will always be the protagonist of the market, no one Quotes of the rose and fell, and institutional investors can not do from the Department. When Quotes through the rose, the market will be talking about Quotes bubble problem, let us know the process of institution Quotes and investment process, to insights about how the bubble Quotes formed.
The greatest advantage is the specialized agencies, institutions invest in any one stock will be through the depth of research, or carried out field research, and accordingly the operating performance of listed companies to predict, combined with the status of the company in the industry, the industry's boom degrees, the same company's share price performance of domestic and international factors such as valuation, and then to compare the valuation price and the current stock price to get investment grade. However, having a running, often agencies based on the valuation of stocks and the standards will change with changes in Quotes, the Quotes of the bubble is generated in such changes, the most common change in three ways:
First, the time units Yixinghuanwei. Quotes are starting up in the early stage, institutions generally based on the valuation of the expected performance of the year as the valuation basis; as Quotes Zhangsheng to the middle period, the sector valuation also generally expected for next year's performance as a basis for valuation a; as Quotes Zhangsheng to high, and in order to maintain high enthusiasm for investing in the market, institutional valuation again after the years of expected performance in general as a valuation basis. For example, in Quotes, the Quotes below 1300 points at the institutional valuation is based on estimated 2006 results; as Quotes Zhangsheng to 1500 points, the institutional basis for the valuation of the general change the forecast results for 2007 ; When Quotes Zhangsheng to 1,700 points, phase, the number of institutions based on the valuation of the expected performance into 2008. Although the mechanism is a kind of Quotes performance expectations for the future, but common sense tells us that in 2006, yet more than half of the time, with 2007 or even 2008's estimated valuation of the performance standards as Quotes, which means Quotes has entered the stage of the value of an overdraft, or Quotes on this produced a bubble.
Second, the valuation price-earnings ratio with the Quotes correspondingly. A number of professional analysts in selecting the valuation price-earnings ratio, often will make reference to overseas markets, standards, and shares the same standards. However, both the overseas market, or similar stock price-earnings ratio will rise gradually as the Quotes improvement. If you lost a subjective basis, simply an objective basis for valuation, there will definitely be changes as a passive Quotes valuation phenomenon. For example, in the first half of Quotes, many industry analysts on the same valuation of stocks price-earnings ratio, at 1300 points, below the selected valuation criteria for 15-20 times, having a 1500 point turns into the 20-25 times, in 1700, when they became a point of 25-35 times. The same valuation standard be changed due to changes in Quotes, tell us two things: (1) When the standard is able to change the time, they explained that it had no standards; (2) When the valuation standard has been arbitrarily change the time, and the prices of the bubble will also be generated with this.
Third, to the future with the unpredictability of the risk of investment projects as a valuation basis. While many listed companies is still in the investment project, when, or even only the investment intentions, many analysts would immediately begin a theoretical analysis of the project to the future of the project is expected to give the company the amount of gains, and crown to certain themes or concepts to improve the valuation Quotes space. The question here is: many of the company's investment projects will be subject to the state's industrial policy impact, sometimes collapse, and even died from fetal abdominal; listed company is free to change the investment intentions of the case everywhere; even if the project inputs, and that they have reached production industry during the boom-degree and the business environment will change. Thus, the unknown as the project is expected to valuation is based on very strict, and when to invest in the project appears Quotes subject to valuation is based on the time as a means Quotes of the bubble was thus created.
Fourth, in some foreign asset pricing model to carry out valuation of mechanization. As you know, outside the capital asset pricing model corresponding to the assets is highly market properties, high liquidity and other features. The vast majority of domestic listed companies by state-owned enterprise restructuring, while their subordinates have the administrative control of assets, local interests, industrial protection, livelihood and other property, even if the future tradable, these properties for quite a long time are difficult to eradicate. Therefore, when a stock price of only 5,6 million shares, because of some outside analysts to apply the valuation of asset pricing model, valuation price reached 30 yuan, and the prices rise sharply when also indicates that Quotes of the foam thus formed.
(A Qi)
