What to buy shares off 51 Money Tips

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2005-12-15

By the National Bureau of Statistics will release first quarter economic data, the impact of the broader market undergo fundamental changes in the index the largest decline of nearly 6%. The Awkwardness of Fund become diving "star." Faced with this decline, investors should I do? In the face of the upcoming "51", how should investors stock-picking festivals?

1, sensitive information, cause crash

Yesterday, the stock market crash and the surface is the National Bureau of Statistics will release first quarter economic performance data on the fault of "bad" (the data released yesterday, 15 o'clock), but the real causes are from 3500 points to 3600 points on the point position test

Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics issued a public notice should have been announced yesterday at 10 am the first quarter of this year, GDP growth, CPI growth in March and other key data, suddenly the time temporary to 3:00 p.m. published, it will allow the market a little trepidation.

Analysts believe that the delayed release some of the key data may be related to inflation and the economic situation is closely related to, such as the CPI may exceed 3% of the warning level (published data in March CPI3.3%). Prior to that, there is point of view, the risk of overheating Chinese economy has begun to appear.

Some economists have predicted for several months there may be more than 3% of CPI. Some experts said that may be staged this year's economic-than-expected growth of the scene, the risk also will be concentrated.

Goldman Sachs economist Hong Liang of China is expected in the first quarter, China's GDP growth of 11.2%. As food prices and other factors, in March year on year CPI rise is likely to exceed 3%. This will test the central bank on inflation range of acceptance, especially in the real interest rate into negative situations.

International information agencies surveyed 24 economists in a quarter of China's GDP growth rate the highest predictive value was 11.4% and the lowest 9.7%, with a median of 10.4% (published data of 11.1%).

Although the economic data for the first quarter of the market psychologically prepared for ultra-high, but the National Bureau of Statistics published a sudden change of time and the time changed to 3 pm closing time, or let the market a little trepidation.

Low stock index rebounded slightly yesterday after opening the rapid emergence test a low, below 3,500 points in intraday trading, but buying support, the index also appeared Fanchou intraday, but closed at noon on the market again before the back pressure. Disk hot spots are mostly rose more or less, most of the adjustment of individual stocks into the initiative. The initiative is expected to back pressure finally emerged.

Despite the rebound in the afternoon of tape, but near the close of the half-hour, in the panic sell-off, under pressure from the broader market plummeting, the vast majority of individual stocks turned green, and volume has reached a volume of 274.045 billion of days.

For the stock market crash yesterday, industry analysts said the stock market crash yesterday, the surface is the National Bureau of Statistics will release first quarter economic performance data on the fault of "bad", but the real root of is from 3500 points to 3600 points on this Point-bit test.

In fact, from the market's trend also can be discerned on the 3000 index points after soaring more than broad market has been, in the middle has never had a decent adjustment. Yesterday's stock market plunge, just so that the accumulated excess earnings pre-plate, with an opportunity for catharsis.

In addition, the period of the previous few articles, we have also been stressed that the current round Quotes 3500-3600 is an important juncture. But yesterday, stocks in 3500 near the crash, not only on the 3500-point test to this point and also let the stock market can be bad news out of yesterday to do.

2, preganglionic tape no great problem

The industry has said that as long as the operation data of the first quarter of dust landing the broader market will continue to up the pattern of the bull market turbulence, "51" pre-holiday, against the big risks are not significant

From yesterday, the stock market can be seen, despite the broader market did not close the last red, but the rebound in the middle of several, including a meteoric rise to the morning, still people feel the market's strength.

The most important thing is, accounting for half of the bank shares the market value of the stock market yesterday showed some resistance to stress, bank shares fell 8 is not large, Huaxia Bank actually the case in the broader market plunged still up 1.53%. Temporary closing, a lot of buying of bank shares showed favor, pay far more than sell orders.

The industry has said that as long as the operation data of the first quarter of dust landing the broader market will continue to up the pattern of the bull market turbulence, "51" pre-holiday, against the big risks are not significant.

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In the afternoon the National Bureau of key data release: This year, consumer prices rose in the first quarter, up 2.7% in March rose 3.3% in the month, there are some inflationary pressures. However, if the deduction last year because of rising food prices of 1.5% hikes resulted in the first quarter rose only 1.2% in the new with the year-ago quarter. This year, the national economy maintained stable and rapid development. Initial accounts, a quarter of gross domestic product 5.0287 trillion yuan, up 11.1%, lower than a year earlier, accelerating 0.7 percentage points. Among them, first produced added value of 363.1 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4%; the secondary industry 2.5552 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; the tertiary industry is 2.1104 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9%.

But for these two critical data, yesterday afternoon, the delivery is being Roadshow Bank president (National Monetary Council member), said this is totally over the control interval, the state will certainly be pressure, no accident, "51" postganglionic a series of macro-control policies will be introduced.

Credit Suisse issued a document yesterday that the intensity of the current round of national macro-control policies will not be too small, and the interest rate will also be just around the corner. This is evident from the recent trend of weakness in banking stocks seem to be able to see the clues.

In addition, mid-year period are generally the state has adopted an intensive period of macro-control policies, if passed, these macro-control policies introduced, a blow to the stock market will be inevitable. Therefore, the industry suggest that investors, once the macro-control policies introduced, would mean another one Jiancang good time.

3, the investment Jiancang tourism, retail and

As the "51" golden weeks for nearly a year ahead of the market are bubbling business, tourism and other habits of the Golden Week concept stocks in the bull market is evident and will not miss. The industry believes that to avoid the market shocks from the security point of view, poised for the full, and there is support for the performance of commercial, tourism can be a strong focus on stocks.

According to Shenyin newly released study shows that consumption in the gold department store long period indicates that the starting point.

Along with the accelerated process of urbanization, growth in disposable income caused by consumption of upgrading, promote China's fashion consumption, and the enjoyment of consumption and brand of cultural consumption has entered a period of rapid growth, thus import of China's department store industry is entering a retail rotation gold starting point.

In the more than 1000 U.S. dollars per capita GDP, after the consumption structure of China's urban residents will take place jumps changes, enjoy hot consumer-and service-oriented consumer goods market will continue to support the active and stable growth of consumption in the growth of consumption has become a major driving force. Consumption of emerging hot spots is the source of consumption growth.

Began in the late 90s last century, consumption in the third peak, the traditional food, clothing propensity to consume tends to decline, while transport and communications, housing, education, culture and entertainment, health care and other consumer hot spots are becoming diversified, branded apparel, cosmetics, , gold jewelry and other luxury goods consumption, the proportion gradually, and the vast majority of these consumer durables is through this channel the modern department store sales. Retail trade, especially in department stores will become the direct beneficiary of spending to upgrade the industry in line with consumer trends, ideas or emerging consumer market, Ye Tai will bring huge investment opportunities.

The upgrade brings consumer spending increased explosively, and will appear in a long cycle characteristics, and this accompanied by the domestic department stores will also have a long cycle of 5-10 years of high prosperity. Chinese department store into a business cycle is just the starting point of gold.

There are two sets of data are able to demonstrate that this issue (source: Price Waterhouse in the research industry reports). The first data is the 2006 Shanghai hypermarket sales fell 8.9%, while department store sales than last year grew by 13.1%. The second month of data is 1-8 overall circulation in 2006, the average growth rate of the various Ye Tai was 14%, but the department store industry has reached a 15.7% growth rate in the top among the retail type. After 90 years of traditional department stores faced with severe challenges against the backdrop of the lingering after five years of adjustment, department stores, finally found a new way to grow. In order to flaunt style characterized by a modern department stores, soon as he was on the stage to obtain a high degree of consumer recognition.

Up to now, in terms of market share, 100 large-scale circulation enterprises, department stores accounted for half of the national chain of department stores industry has accounted for 1 / 6, showing that the department store industry consolidation further accelerated. Mergers and acquisitions within the industry and expansion of the economy not only will become the current high under the theme of another industry, but also the business unit will provide a rich band the opportunity to hype.

In addition, the domestic old-established department store business in general earlier, most of them occupied the most central location to do business locally, while the self-owned commercial property has also in recent years due to rising real estate prices continue to rise alarming, especially for some of their own property have a particularly high proportion of department store business, a number of business unit asset revaluation amazing.

Furthermore, the regional department stores often have plenty of leading shares of the operating cash flow, but also from the consumption peak in 2007 Spring Festival has brought the outbreak of social consumer goods retail sales growth, the growth rate reached a record 16.9%, indicating that consumption trend has been can not be used has been a "steady growth" to a brief summary.

Department Stores and other commercial stocks rebound in the economy, especially the "Labor Day" Golden Week approaching a time when the appropriate layout in advance a number of good performers, is facing a strong breakthrough in commercial stocks right time.

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