Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-07-06
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Peripheral excess liquidity environment may change, executives hope the market out of its own pattern of Manniu intent, are led into the second half of the stock market may be caused by shocks Manniu channels important factor.
This column think that the external changes in the pattern of excess liquidity, savings, leading to shunt excessive tension in the position of commercial banks to ease the problem of high-level they wish to market regulation of the intention to go Manniu are led out of the second half of the stock market volatility change Manniu pattern important factor. In addition, the central enterprises will accelerate the integration, and more will have a major impact on the market.
1, awash with liquidity situation may ease
Interest rates, the trade surplus on the basis of unsustainable growth, will ease the overall financial environment for the external market.
1, plus interest
Meat, eggs and poultry price rises too fast, rapid increases in property prices and so on, is the management to face major problems. Although the modest price increases will be an objective and long-term trends, but also prompted the central bank must raise interest rates by an adequate to resolve the status of de facto negative interest rates.
Bank of China, the global financial markets issued by the Ministry of 9 yuan market monthly report pointed out that, along with most of this year, rapid growth of financial indicators of macroeconomic, economic overheating trend is more obvious, in this context, the macro-control is in full swing. Report is expected later this year, the central bank there are 1-2 times the possibility of rate hikes, the earliest time possible rate hike in July, while the Ministry of Finance also has the cancellation or reduction of interest tax to cope with the possible.
2, sustained high trade surplus is not likely to continue
While exports hit a new high in June, but we think that the great majority of them because most of the foreign trade enterprises to accelerate the progress of the export result, its aim being to go to avoid the export tax rebate rate reduction caused by reduction in corporate profits. In other words, in the first half in particular, in June the rapid growth of trade surplus has its special reasons, not sustainable. In addition, the phased increase in exports, but also to a large extent caused by a rebound in the major trading countries. From the laws of the market itself, the growth of trade surplus is likely to slow in the second half, or even dropped. In addition to the management itself, to adjust the structure of exports slow growth rate of trade surplus and ease pressure on RMB appreciation is also a direction.
Therefore, we believe that trade surplus can not be a high long-term sustainability, which also leads to massive influx of foreign capital to change the situation. Namely, the external funding environment has changed the stock market can change fast influx of funds and policies to boost mad cow surface pressure pattern of a serious contradiction.
Second, banks no longer be a financial constraint and the factors that impede the outflow of savings to the stock market
In addition, the pre-market turmoil led to an important factor in the stock market should be the divert savings too quickly, finally bring to small and medium commercial banks dominated the banking position tension.
However, currently available through third-party broker depository re-adjustment, as well as commercial banks are lending, etc. can obviously alleviate the position of commercial banks, especially small and medium tension. This is why the central bank officials divert savings in the stock market to alleviate the reasons for the attitude.
Therefore, the rapid outflow of savings banks in the position of tension leading to problems have been resolved.
Third, in line with high-level intent Manniu
Standing high-level point of view, Man Niu is in line with its fundamental interests of the fast cattle, mad cow and the bear market is not the policy of taking the stock market from the optimal choice. If the market can be maintained at a reasonable range shocks and maintain the fundamental stability of the market, and can help the management through the capital market to solve a series of questions, specifically, to accelerate state-owned enterprises listed on the question.
Recent local commercial banks to speed up the release rate, and some red chips to issue H-shares has been accelerating, if the market was excessively depressed, then this part of the listing of state-owned enterprises will no doubt be taking place.
Fourth, integration of central enterprises significant impact on the market rate
This column has always stressed that the article to promote the market growth of the main engine is integrated into the main background of the central enterprise asset injection. In this context, a large number of assets into shares of the re-emergence of themes will be the core of the new round of bull market power.
The pre-injection led to a large number of assets is an important theme of rapid decline for two reasons: First, is the subject of frenzied bubbling stock, it is possible to let the market by quickly evolved into a mad cow cattle, and policies are incompatible. Followed by the rapid influx of a large number of savings led to high stock prices, is also bound to the central integration of enterprise assets, bring a lot of difficulties.
So, with the theme of stock collapse and the market cooled, these problems have been a certain ease, this will promote the restructuring of central enterprises to re-accelerate the pace of it? These problems affect the markets, trends and patterns are key.
