Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-09-19
Perhaps the spirit of people every happy event Neat huh, fervent promotion of the new U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson seems to fully activate the entire Goldman Sachs Group, humor cells. Taimulakai in the World Cup this time of financial giant released a pretentiously named "2006 FIFA World Cup economics" study, unique and elaborate way to use a probability model Huyou fans.
I have carefully read this work as long as 57 pages of Goldman Sachs, the result is surprise. Not so much a professional financial analysis, appropriate to say that football is a bad forecast. In the full tone of the language of ridicule, the Goldman Sachs people恶搞fully tap their potential and seize the opportunity to show off their proud tradition of a mathematical foundation.
Of course, the real I will report on Goldman Sachs identified as black humor is the subject of the report. Professional in a series of dazzling the analysis, Goldman Sachs people to explore a country's economy, population and other factors on the impact of the World Cup final destination, and use it as an important basis of the fate of the 32 were predicted. Obviously, such research is not a lot of economic sense, if the economy is strong or weak, the results of soccer matches have a major impact, then the U.S. team deserved more popular than the Brazilian team; if the level of population size on the football has a key role in , then the Chinese team would not have people Yuyuehuanxiu.
As a disciple of economics, I am equally concerned about the economic impact of the World Cup. In this regard, the media is not uncommon, but the content is mostly limited to the World Cup host country's economic balance of payments accounting, or tourism, retail and other related industries, business analysis. Compared to these unusual problems, I would like to know is the impact of the World Cup on the stock market, after all, has been since May, the international market has been frequent transaction, while the advent of the World Cup to let the market trend is more complicated and confusing.
Problem toward the inexplicable interest in this alternative, I am on the network of "World Cup, the stock market," began a blanket search and found that the outcome of football, World Cup, the direction of ownership of the stock market short-term and long-term effects, the international academic community even 90 years from the last century began the study, and in modeling and empirical application of the latest in a number of basic theoretical tools, the experience drawn a lot of thought-provoking conclusions.
Such academic understanding applied to the 2006 World Cup, This time I would like to bring to the international stock markets may affect can be summarized as three.
First, and most importantly, the short term, the international stock market volatility may be more severe. Reached this conclusion with the application of behavioral finance solidarity. Behavioral finance to emphasize that the psychological effect on the behavior of financial market participants an important role. In fact, the market is not, as traditional economics assumes that the main body, as "completely irrational", as in the psychological fluctuating by "animal instincts" of the impact of many of the acts of their decision was "irrational", and emotions good or bad is entirely possible with a to very different behavior choices.
The victory of the national team to the stocks from the two channels to exert the potential impact of the main acts: if market players because of the national team win the game happy, then they would on the one hand the optimism to reduce the risk of a specific sensitivity level; another context, a good mood it makes it easier for them to meet at a relatively low level of acceptance of the effectiveness of a particular portfolio
. In other words, the main football victory will make the market more risk-and more easily deal. The World Cup is a tournament form of football feast, any team in a multi-match win may have had negative, this means that the 32 domestic stock market will fluctuate in varying degrees, the World Cup through the channels of behavioral finance to increase the international market's overall volatility.
Secondly, the performance of the World Cup could have long-term development of national stock markets has brought the potential impact. In general, the field of eye-catching performance in football will bring the overall improvement of the national morale to some extent will increase a country's labor productivity and thus to economic growth in the internal dynamics of transport stream. Change the stock market as economic fundamentals "barometer" of economic growth will naturally occur with the change in the same direction. This is the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany, commercial operation of these leagues very mature countries, such an impact on the more important, after all, a lot of big clubs are listed companies, like the British have 26 teams to enter the stock market, The national football team's performance will give their own natural "Soccer plate" brings a tremendous impact.
Finally, the World Cup fatigue effects may be asymmetric to enlarge the stock market short-term trading risks. The transfer of interest during the World Cup will no doubt bring about the stock market is relatively indifferent, ordinary traders is due to fatigue, while the effect of lazy ball reward investment management, which will bring the corresponding vigilance to relax the regulatory problems, speculative forces are likely took the opportunity to action, This is tantamount to enlarge the market risks. For Asia, enjoy live mostly in the middle of the night, which virtually brought to a stock market trading during the day compared to Europe and the United States more serious fatigue. For the emerging markets in Asia, the World Cup, the short-term trading risk can not be overlooked, while the emerging markets of suspicious signs of the recent capital outflows and further amplified the risk factors. China should also be alert to this. (International Finance, Fudan University, Cheng solid lines)
