Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-14
Source: China Securities Journal Author: Ben-hu
We believe that the injection of quality assets as the group, XJ Electric (000400) 2007 will enter a phase of growth by leaps and bounds, which is the heart of evaluation of a company's value, investors in 2006 there is no need to get too concerned about the performance.
Taking into account the company's growth, its performance in 2007 corresponds to a reasonable price-earnings ratio should be 25 times the corresponding target price should be 15.50 yuan, maintaining the company "strongly recommended" investment rating. Expects 2006 earnings per share of 0.39 yuan in 2007 earnings per share was 0.62 yuan, company's stock valuation is still the most obvious advantage of electrical equipment unit. Steady growth in 2006. We track information display, the company's orders for a lot of focus in the second half is expected to power grid and power generation system, the level of the year with basically the same as in 2005; In addition, the transformer is expected to achieve annual sales income 3 billion yuan, the contribution of the intensity of the performance rise. Comprehensive view, expects 2006 net profit 16000-17000 million, compared to 2005 increased about 30%.
In 2007 entered the rapid growth stage. For the company's comprehensive evaluation, we have been insisting DC business will become a turning point of view. Company's ongoing manner through targeted additional injection of "changing flow valve devices" initiative, will allow the company starting in 2007 ushered in a golden period of sustained growth.
Our preliminary estimates, the next five years, the construction of direct current transmission line the total investment will be 1000 billion yuan, of which 2010 could be recognized revenues of approximately 7.1 billion. Further subdivided, 2006,2007, respectively, of 4 billion, 700 million yuan ,2008-2010 total of 6 billion yuan. In addition, 2010 is expected to confirm the DC to protect revenues of approximately 18-19 million. Further subdivided, 2006,2007, respectively, of 1.2 billion yuan, 180 million yuan ,2008-2010 total of 1.5 billion.
Simply 50% market share according to proportion of guesses ran, we expect that for 2008-2010, obtained by flow valves and protective equipment orders were 3.0 billion and 7.5 billion, respectively, an average of 10 million and 250 million yuan.
We expect the company in 2007 in DC converter valves and the protection of revenue will be 3.4 billion and 180 million yuan. Respectively, of 15% and 20% of the net profit margin rough calculation, the company's DC operations in 2007 will achieve net profit of 87 million yuan. After the issuance of equity in accordance with terms of earnings per share were 0.21 yuan, while the company expected 2007 earnings per share 0.60 yuan.
2008-2010, is expected to direct current converter valves and protection were an average of 10 million and 250 million yuan, 15% and 20% of the net profit margin rough calculation, the company will achieve net profit of DC business 200 million yuan. Thus expects the post-2008 average annual earnings per share should be 0.80 yuan more than in 2008 than in 2007 could grow by at least 30%.
â–?Chart Data Source: Wind Info profit forecast integrated value list 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E
Main Business Revenue (million) 1,526.81 1,702.17 1,826.79 2,121.62 2,547.20 2,894.23
Growth rate (%) 18.54 11.49 7.32 16.14 20.06 13.62
Net income (million yen) 168.77 144.03 116.84 154.56 195.66 259.04
Growth rate (%) 11.63 -14.66 -18.88 32.28 26.59 32.39
Earnings per share 0.4462 0.3808 0.3089 0.4086 0.5173 0.6848
Price-earnings ratio 22.08 25.87 31.89 24.11 19.04 14.38
PEG 1.9 -1.76 -1.69 0.75 0.72 0.44
Tabulation: Dragon
