Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-05-27
Year of the Pig stock market four suspense
â–?Guangdong Development Fund Investment Director Zhu Ping
Friedman in the "economics of life", the opening were the name of economics on human rational behavior is defined as the science. The same is true of investment research. China's stock market experienced last year, soared beyond all expectations, it will have to face a growth in corporate profits and investors in the limited unlimited desire for wealth of contradictions. If all investors choose a rational, then we can arrive at the valuation model and the profit forecast or a reasonable expectation, but the prices are set by the stock market decided to bid high, so the market can not gain the actual valuation of a rational range. Therefore, the stock market this year, the biggest question mark will be the price-earnings ratio will go up how much it is in the end it 30 times or 50 times? Now no one can know.
The second of suspense is the growth in corporate profits in the end how much uncertainty in the data mainly from three aspects, first, after the mechanism of changes in share reform will bring the number of profit; followed by injection of assets, how much thickening; Finally, macro - how much economic growth will slow down. Last year, corporate profits surprisingly good, its growth rate of more than 30% a great possibility, and almost all sectors experienced growth, which for this year's profit growth has brought not a small pressure; asset injection is an exogenous variable, For some small companies, its change may be very large, but if we consider the domestic stock market capitalization plus H-share market more than 15 trillion yuan, accounting for GDP80%, which means that market value has little room to grow.
A third of suspense is a legend in the adjustment will be how to interpret. If the stock market at the end of the price-earnings ratio is high, such as up to 50 times, then the adjustment of the stock market this year may still not be much, but if the stock market this year, no more than 30 times price-earnings ratio, then the possibility of adjustments to the market will be enormous, but we had such an adjustment would be difficult to know what has happened now, the fuse where it comes from the duration for how long.
The final suspense investors how much profit this year. The suspense consists of two parts: First, the number of overall profitability, followed by how many percentage of investors are making a profit. If the overall profit by about 30% or less, then the frequent fluctuations in the broader market while a small part of the lucky ones will make access to the excess proceeds, the majority of individual investors by the end of reckoning, it may actually be a deficit.
