Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-16
2006 1-2 months A-share market will maintain a continuous upward trend in oscillation. We believe that the H shares will continue to move up after record high, A shares H shares rose due linkage, A shares beyond the previous high on the Shanghai index is inevitable, and there are up to 1,300 points, trend. While H shares on the A shares of blue chip strength has a direct role in promoting the blue chips also faced by the system of innovation and market reforms have resulted in premium advantage (scarcity premium, innovative premium, equity structure, premium).
1, GDP revaluation revaluation led to H shares
Currently H shares strong influence mainly by two factors, the first core element of China's sustained economic growth temperature. In 2005 the resilience of China's economic growth exceeded the expectations of international investors, while the GDP at the end of the revaluation gave scope for imagination of international investors: First, the original domestic consumption is not thought so little, implying that China's spending power is not bad ; Second, the original ratio of domestic investment are not as high as, implying that China is also to increase the proportion of investment, especially investment in new rural construction.
At the same time in 2005, the four emerging markets (China, India, Russia, Brazil), China's worst performance of equity markets and economic growth is the strongest. This is also the international investors the courage to GDP continued to buy H shares after the revaluation of the important reasons.
The second factor is the liquidity of the core, which includes the international market liquidity, the Federal Reserve interest rate can be described, and the second is the liquidity of the domestic market can be used to describe the renminbi and U.S. dollar interest rates. These two factors are conducive to the current H shares.
In general, the RMB appreciation on the stock market and the effect of three listed companies, domestic research emphasized the impact of profit and loss account on the stock, namely, the impact analysis of how revenue and costs, but actually can enhance the appreciation of the RMB business's net asset value of , but also can reduce stock market risk premium, these two investors are rarely considered.
2, H shares lead A shares gained strength
In the A-share market valuations generally in line with international standards, local investors gradually lose the right to speak of the situation, concerns and study of international markets, especially the H-cap stocks, the trend for the A shares have a high reference value. In fact, after the split share structure reform, both the linkage and the associated relations are very significant.
From the selection of individual stocks, A-share market a major opportunity to influence by the Hong Kong market is also a great example, at present the main varieties of rising bank stocks and real estate stocks, but also to follow the rise in Hong Kong. Banking stocks and high-quality performance of a stable real estate stocks, in the appreciation of the renminbi against the background of even more valuable.
3, turned upside down - blue chips to go home
H Shares in blue-chip tape-based, therefore, H shares of the strength of the A-share market, led by blue chips have a direct role. In addition, A-share market policy adjustments and innovative activities for the broader market blue-chips have a beneficial effect, there are the advantages of innovative premium revaluation.
1, policy and institutional innovation
We believe that this year, Yi Eryue copies, the Commission will be to master the judicial power, the stock market for further innovation and change. This will help reduce market risk premium and increase market availability of investment. Basically, the current mainstream view investors have formed an expectation that only innovation in the securities market have a chance. And the SFC in the first half of this year mainly to speed up institutional innovation to drive stock reform; continue to "pulling funds" to meet the "new old"; while improving the basic institutional building process.
Institutional innovation is not limited to the current share reform work in the subsequent expansion, to improve quality of listed companies a complete range of basic institutionalized the process of building will also continue to emerge. The scope of the application is not limited to the current trading system, distribution system, intermediary systems have to be in relation to this. It is precisely because there is kind of a long-term planning, the stock market confidence and hope can be established.
Management this year "work plan"
The market generally in line with international standards, but from the structure yet. Second half of 2005 is a valuation structure of chaotic times, small-cap stocks by the funds to promote the impact outperform stocks, speculative stocks beyond the investment in shares, which brought about the arbitrage opportunity. Quotes in this small-cap stocks and speculative stocks rise will be inhibited, while the blue chips, then there exists a structural re-assessment opportunities. At the international securities markets, the large-cap stocks should be given a higher premium, but in 2005 from the split share structure reform, the small-cap stocks and junk stocks outperformed large capitalization stocks.
2, there is a premium blue chip revaluation:
(1) the scarcity of premium blue chip
If after the second quarter of this year, a large number of initial public offering, then the stock market look like? I think the key is the small-cap stocks, growth stocks, technology stocks, because it is part of the national policy to encourage, but also part of investors would prefer. Previous previous listing mechanism well suited for individual stocks in traditional industries listed category, because the number of assets required is very high.
Therefore, many traditional industries are a class of large-cap stocks are already available, such as iron and steel stocks, you is hard to see such a large-scale enterprises like Baoshan Iron and Steel IPO in; for example, the airport industry, Shanghai Airport, Guangzhou Airport, Beijing Capital International Airport and Shenzhen Airport are all these airports already available in; such as electricity companies, Huaneng Power International is the largest, Yangtze Power is the greatest. Such as construction machinery manufacturing, that is, Sany Heavy Industry, and is the leading Zoomlion. Such as cement industry, Conch Cement is the greatest. That tape of blue-chip stocks in traditional industries face the new and old to draw new IPO but have been hit much. Performance of the basic bad as long as they release, the stock price and then drop low enough, they can be safe to avoid the risk of stocks. Currently on the market over-or give a high premium on the stock are facing the impact of fresh blood.
(2) The blue chips innovative premium
Through institutional innovations to improve their own access to the absolute value of the company's innovative premium, this premium is not a trading system or a premium of innovative technical methods, but rather through institutional innovations to improve the value of a premium on their own. Example, improving an organization's integrity, improve the management capacity of enterprises to improve corporate governance, improve the degree of concentration of enterprises in the industry and so on. A total of 2 1 [2]
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