Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-02
The method used to determine Zhuanggu There are many, such as the observed trend is independent of broad market indexes, observe whether the amount of money in intraday sell-off, and so then. These observations are certainly very important, but if the main disk and down, then these methods will not be able to spend. In fact, there are many very interesting small details also should cause us concern, such as the circulation of this article to talk about the top ten list of shareholders.
Market has changed from the list of top ten shareholders of tradable shares gained a lot of, for example there are a few funds settled, there Which brokerage Shigekura whether there QFII interest and so on, but it seems not to notice that through the top ten shareholders of tradable shares we can be found in the main clues. If the top ten shareholders are all chips are not too many personal accounts, the general circumstances in which such shares are considered to be scattered stock, that is, no main stocks. However, if certain conditions met, then these stocks are still very scattered and there may be one of the main hidden.
If we analyze the current top ten shareholders in isolation if we are all holding less than 30 million personal accounts, which really can not determine whether the main force. But if we carry out dynamic analysis is not the same. Now listed companies must make public the top ten of each quarter, the circulation of shareholders, such a result, we have on hand a change every three months a list of the top ten shareholders of circulation.
Ten consecutive quarters, the control flow of the list of shareholders, if there are three or more than one account the number of frequent changes in ownership, even if each time the number of changes as small as a unit, we can basically conclude that stocks are the main force of this. Its theoretical basis is impossible as long as the main transactions in a quarter of a point is not moving. Once the tape pull Yang Xian, even half-dead main also very hard to resist a strong impulse pulled desire. In this small-scale pulled up during the chip would choose more general account, which is more convenient to operate, so these top 10 account on the passive-off, the number of holdings will change.
An example here, such as Xinjiang Tianye (600,075 market, information, advice, more). To observe the third quarter of 2004 and the semi-annual report of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares, in addition to two funds, in the remaining eight individual shareholder's stake has four the number has changed. Since the first quarter of last year's top ten in circulation statements did not disclose the shareholders, so we also need to pay close attention to its annual report, once again the number of major changes in shareholding are the basic unit may be concluded that there is one main deep. Based on the fundamentals of a stock, its operating performance improved markedly since the second half of last year, this year should be expected to enter the ranks of blue-chip stocks, so that once the unit has identified the main, you should pay close attention.
The only objection to this approach is that the account of these changes is still retail. If an individual holds an account for several million chips and the number 20 have changed the words on the show that conducted the sale within three months, according to experience, the probability is very small, even though there are no more than one account, while the we analyze the condition that three or more accounts. In fact in the current retail market, once sold will not buy back.
Through the list of top ten shareholders, we can find some hidden the main, but not all of the main forces can all be found in this way, so this is a mathematically speaking, belong to the full, but not necessary conditions. (Pan Weijun)
