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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
In general terms, the new acquisition management practices due to lower acquisition threshold, introduced the innovative means of payment, part of the convertible, which is expected to greatly facilitate the commencement of acquisition of listed companies, thus making acquisition of listed companies based on arbitrage opportunities will start to become rich Colorful. Of course, the arbitrage process in itself is worth the market risk inherent in investor attention.
Some of the companies M & A highlights
Compared to the previous offer to acquire all of the new requirements to reduce the difficulty of the acquisition, thereby reducing the threshold for acquisition of listed companies.
With the stock reform smooth conduct of the full circulation of the real market-oriented mergers and acquisitions provide the basis, while the new rules optimized for the development of market-oriented system environment for mergers and acquisitions. Full Circulation to make a large change in shareholding structure, controlling the value of some companies highlighted, together with industry, the need for further escalation of the company, mergers and acquisitions will become the development of capital markets is one of the key themes, commercial retail, resource stocks are expected to sudden emergence of the wave of mergers and acquisitions.
Grasp the M & A arbitrage Trilogy
We expect the new management approach, case acquisition of listed companies will be doubled. In this process, investors can pay close attention to the arbitrage opportunities inherent in them. The acquisition process in the so-called arbitrage refers to the investors to earn the current price of the underlying stock market and the future behavior of the spread between the purchase price. In general, arbitrage is possible to achieve a relatively short period of time to determine return on investment.
Confirmed the new approach from the current price point of view, the provisions of the outstanding shares of the offer price and market price linkage, the notice should offer the first 30 trading days the average price as the offer price floor is no longer discounted. Such a provision will help investors assess the risks and benefits of arbitrage.
So, in specific arbitrage operations, investors should pay attention to what factors? I believe that should grasp arbitrage trilogy: first, investors ultimately fail to take into account the possibility of the acquisition; Second, investors should be risk-adjusted returns through the probability distribution of the approximate estimate of the proceeds for years to arrive at relatively accurate the rate of return; third, this rate of return to investors their expected rate of return compared to decide whether to participate in arbitrage.
For example, a company announced that it will be tender offer, an offer price of 8 yuan, the current fair value of the securities is 5 yuan, while shares of 7 yuan. After analysis, the acquisition probability of success is 80%, the possibility of failure is 20%. Therefore, if the acquisition successful, investors will profit 1 yuan, if the acquisition fails, the share price dropped to the value of the region, investors will lose 2 yuan. Taking into account the acquisition of the likelihood of success, the arbitrage of the yield will be (1 × 80% -2 × 20%) / 8 = 5%. If the acquisition be completed within 1 month, the annualized income arbitrage behavior will reach 60%. Obviously, this is a very worthwhile to do a deal.
