Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-01-26
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: In the shadow of a global tightening liquidity, we believe that the first phase of the bull market has ended. Although the broad market, there are still a significant rebound in the short term the probability, but from a strategic point of view, phased at the top began to take shape, and constantly rallies lighten up is the wise investor.
June 14 character name of the premier chaired a State Council executive meeting to analyze the current economic situation and make arrangements for the recent economic work, said the current economic operation of the main problems is still excessive growth of fixed asset investment, excessive money and credit, many, especially the structural contradiction, energy resources and environmental pressures. Economic development of the current credit encountered too many problems of excessive growth in fixed assets has become a priority at the top table of the one of the most important issue, and this is worsening.
To control the excessive growth of fixed assets, excessive credit problems, the current direction of monetary policy adjustment is inevitable. The medium term, a neutral monetary policy can not adapt to the current actual situation. According to statistics, in May of broad money (M2) balance and the balance of RMB loans grew by 19.1% and 16%. The first five months of this year's total amount of credit has reached 1.786 trillion yuan, more than 2.5 trillion yuan invested throughout the year target Qi Cheng.
The central bank announced the latest data has led to economists believe the central bank's monetary policy will be "neutral" to "tightening", in addition to open market operations, the interest rates, deposit reserve ratio and the exchange rate of the increase may become a new tool for tightening.
We are Guangzhou Bandung net the previous article, has repeatedly stressed that tight monetary policy and the resulting tightening of liquidity will be a real killer of the bull market in such a backdrop, the first phase of the bull market is difficult to continue to develop . The tightening of monetary policy, the main impact on the stock market in the following areas:
1, tight monetary policy will lead to a market capitalization of blood loss
The first three months of this year's substantial increase in the amount of short-term financing bills, there are many experts predict that short-term financing through the bank's assets in large numbers into the financial markets, particularly in the stock market. The central bank also further analysis, "this year, especially in May, due to the rapid rise in the stock market volume larger shunt a part of household savings deposits, savings deposits led to an increase has slowed down significantly." In this case, the bank funds has actually crossed the barriers of the barrier systems flowing into the stock market, once the tightening of bank funds side, then the inevitable gate catches fire, adverse impacts to the fish.
In addition the central bank bills recently and are using various means to regulate the market, which directly affect the flow of funds. Northeast bills discount rate is the lowest in the country in terms of the central bank at present to start checking from the northeast region, there is a certain targeted.
In addition to special inspection instruments business, the central bank money market has also pulled up the central bank bill rate, which also led to the amount of domestic bills finance significantly reduced, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other hot money of the most active areas are particularly apparent. These generally are considered the recent stock market slump led to an important reason.
In fact, the central bank in the currency markets pulled the nature of central bank bills that have a benchmark interest rates, tightening effect is very obvious, as its target the tightness of funds, the impact on the stock market is obvious.
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In addition, we believe that the big stick of the reserve is likely to be the next step taken by the central bank's monetary instruments. In accordance with the current market funds, the central bank raise a point for each deposit reserve rate, it will contract out about 200 billion market liquidity, which will be the current stock market funds face worse.
Second, a direct impact on the macro-control performance of listed companies
One of the main purpose of the macro-control is to control the growth rate of fixed asset investment, which will affect and fixed assets related to various industries such as steel, cement, nonferrous metals, electric power, and so the industry, which tends to slow development of the industry in turn associated with a direct impact on other industries. In 2004, began the process of rapid development of heavy industry, driven by fixed asset investment has played a decisive role. Although the long term, urbanization will continue to drive the development of these industries, but after the start of the macro-control will be in the medium term to suppress the development of these industries, performance will no doubt be drastic downward spiral.
Broker's research report shows that in the macro-control under the influence of the overall performance of listed companies will not have too good of performance, the situation is likely to decline in the fourth quarter of this year, only difference. With shares of the institutional reform to bring a premium driving force disappeared, performance and valuation of promoting market development will be the main drivers of decline in overall performance of listed companies obviously do not support the further development of the first phase of the bull market.
3, the global stock market crash, A shares hard spared
The wave of liquidity crunch and interest rates is a global, from the current situation, interest rate hikes by the tidal effects of a global fall in asset prices, including stock and commodity markets fell sharply tide has begun to sweep every corner of the world.
China's listed companies before the stock based on the A-share market closed is independent of the foreign market. However, as the QDII and QFII system is completed, China's capital markets and international markets, a lot of two-way flow of smooth than ever. In this process, China has the same type of enterprise or the same listed companies in the domestic and foreign markets will be priced in line, A-share market will become more obvious characteristics of the internationalization, A shares and the external market is more closely linked.
In fact, the current A shares and Hong Kong market, the trend is getting closer and closer, the recent Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market up with the same or become more and more apparent.
This means that, in the context of internationalization, the global tightening of financial market turbulence will bring about the inevitable impact on the development of the domestic A shares. From commodity futures to the relevant stock, we can see that trend in the domestic A share market convergence with the rest of the world are strengthening.
Around the world under the shadow of tightening liquidity, we believe that the first phase of the bull market has ended. Although the broad market, there are still a significant rebound in the short term the probability, but from a strategic point of view, phased at the top began to take shape, and constantly rallies lighten up is the wise investor.
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